After the non-farm data on Monday (September 9), the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September cooled down. The US dollar index rebounded after hitting the bottom, causing the gold price to fall below the 2,500 mark, and the short-term bearish signal of the gold price has increased. At present, the US Treasury yield has also rebounded, which puts the gold price at risk of further correction. Of course, the geopolitical situation and the prospect of interest rate cuts may still limit the breakthrough of the current gold market. On the technical level, from the daily chart, gold is still in a wide range of fluctuations. The key resistance level above is still the historical record high of $2,532, and the strong support below is the low of $2,473 reached last week. In terms of technical indicators, the short-term does not seem to be favorable for gold bulls, and there seems to be a sign of top divergence. Once the above-mentioned high-level fluctuation area of $2,473 falls below, it is necessary to be careful that gold will enter a period of decline and adjustment. Only by breaking through the record high of $2,532 can it continue to climb to a higher peak.
Gold closed flat with a cross K-line last week, and the daily line fell back after reaching a high, with pressure on the upper track of the range. In the short term, the wide range of 2530-2470 has not changed, and the non-agricultural data last Friday did not stimulate the break of the range. From the current market, the upward trend did not break 2530 and formed a fall, and it also did not break when it approached the four-hour lower line. It can be seen that the market has returned to the shock zone again. Whether it can break the shock zone of 2530-2470 depends on the CPI guidance on Wednesday. A wave of highs and falls on Friday highlighted the signal of strong bearishness. Although the current gold price is still running above the short-term moving average, and the short-term moving average also forms a short-term support in the 2485 area, it is obvious that the upward momentum has begun to show weakness. On the whole, the weekly line, the bears still have the advantage in the short term, and it is highly likely to continue to extend the lows. This week is expected to reach the 2470 area again.
The 4-hour gold chart has begun to contract and oscillate in the box range, which is also the parallel contraction range of Bollinger Bands. The upper track is 2530 and the lower track is 2470. The wide range is still relatively large. It is not expected to form a breakthrough at the beginning of the week. We need to focus this week. What we are paying attention to is the area around 2470 where the previous two double-pin bottoms were reached. As far as the weekly and daily closing conditions are concerned, the downward trend is obvious and it is expected to continue to bottom out. If the position cannot be changed to support it, then the profits of gold short positions will definitely fall sharply. The short-term operations within the day are centered around this range to sell high, sell low, and go long, and when it is close to the lower rail, combine the hourly chart pattern with short gong. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends rebounding mainly to high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows and longs. The top short-term focus will be on the 2510-2515 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2485-2480 first-line support.