Gold Spot / U.S. DollarUpdated GOLD H12 Idea
Record High and Pullback
Gold recently hit a record high of $2,790.17, mainly driven by safe-haven buying due to uncertainty around the U.S. election and tensions in the Middle East. However, it pulled back to $2,736.45 as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rose, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.
Weak Jobs Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a low increase of 12,000 jobs, supporting hopes for a Fed rate cut on November 7. This expected cut could make gold more appealing by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A 25-basis-point cut is nearly priced in, though dollar strength is currently offsetting some of this potential support.
Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Reversal
Gold’s weekly chart shows a possible bearish reversal pattern, with $2,724.75 as a critical support level. If prices drop below this level, it could lead to further declines, potentially targeting $2,697.28 or even $2,604.39.
Upcoming Events and Market Impact
With the U.S. presidential election and Fed decision next week, markets expect heightened volatility. The election uncertainty could continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand, while a Fed rate cut might add further upside if announced.
Outlook
If gold holds above $2,724.75, it may signal consolidation and possible upside, especially if the Fed cuts rates as anticipated. Conversely, a break below this support could confirm a short-term correction. For now, the market leans toward a cautious bearish stance in the short term, with potential support from safe-haven demand and lower rates longer term. Traders should monitor critical levels and prepare for swings tied to the election and Fed decision.
Gold recently hit a record high of $2,790.17, mainly driven by safe-haven buying due to uncertainty around the U.S. election and tensions in the Middle East. However, it pulled back to $2,736.45 as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rose, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.
Weak Jobs Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a low increase of 12,000 jobs, supporting hopes for a Fed rate cut on November 7. This expected cut could make gold more appealing by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A 25-basis-point cut is nearly priced in, though dollar strength is currently offsetting some of this potential support.
Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Reversal
Gold’s weekly chart shows a possible bearish reversal pattern, with $2,724.75 as a critical support level. If prices drop below this level, it could lead to further declines, potentially targeting $2,697.28 or even $2,604.39.
Upcoming Events and Market Impact
With the U.S. presidential election and Fed decision next week, markets expect heightened volatility. The election uncertainty could continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand, while a Fed rate cut might add further upside if announced.
Outlook
If gold holds above $2,724.75, it may signal consolidation and possible upside, especially if the Fed cuts rates as anticipated. Conversely, a break below this support could confirm a short-term correction. For now, the market leans toward a cautious bearish stance in the short term, with potential support from safe-haven demand and lower rates longer term. Traders should monitor critical levels and prepare for swings tied to the election and Fed decision.
Trade closed: target reached
Target reached +490pips
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.