A panel discussion took place in Sinatra on Wednesday, hosted by the European Central Bank and attended by the heads of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. The discussion revealed that nearly all participants agreed on the need for higher interest rates to curb higher-than-expected inflation.
Following the panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell addressed a banking event in Madrid on Thursday, where he mentioned that the U.S. central bank was actively seeking the appropriate level of rates to control economic activity and inflation without causing unnecessary weakness.
The Fed has been closely monitoring various aspects of the economy, including the labor market and energy-induced inflation, among others, in preparation for its July 26 meeting to decide on interest rates.
Two important data points in the U.S. are influencing the Fed's decision-making process: First quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. These indicators will play a role in determining whether the central bank will proceed with rate hikes over the next few weeks or maintain the current pause in monetary tightening, which was decided on June 14.
According to the Commerce Department, U.S. GDP grew by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of this year. This revelation is likely to provide some relief to the Fed, indicating that its previous rate hikes did not overly impede economic growth. However, inflation remains a concern, with the overall trend showing a slowdown but still at relatively high levels.
Based on these factors, expectations are that the Fed will raise lending rates by another quarter percentage point on July 26, bringing them to a peak of 5.25%.
In the gold market, prices experienced a gain of approximately 5% in both futures trading and the spot price of bullion during the first half of the year. However, concerns over additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have caused some uncertainty, leading to a weakening of gold's support at the $1,900 level as price action remains within correction territory. Weekly price action suggests a correction may be underway or has culminated, as seen on the daily time frame in the video, with prices reaching $1,893 during the week despite a rebound on Friday to bring it back to $1,900.
In the video, a comprehensive price action-based technical analysis of the XAUUSD market was conducted. The analysis considered both bullish and bearish sentiments, as well as accumulation and distribution patterns. Valuable insights into potential buyer and seller behavior were gained by examining past price patterns, market behavior, recurring trends, and significant support and resistance levels.
Given the information gathered from this technical perspective, particular emphasis was placed on the key level at $1,900, which will play a crucial role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week. The reactions observed within this zone on Monday will provide valuable indicators, especially during the first half of the week. Prepare yourself to capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead! Stay tuned for updates that will assist in making informed trading decisions throughout the week.
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Following the panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell addressed a banking event in Madrid on Thursday, where he mentioned that the U.S. central bank was actively seeking the appropriate level of rates to control economic activity and inflation without causing unnecessary weakness.
The Fed has been closely monitoring various aspects of the economy, including the labor market and energy-induced inflation, among others, in preparation for its July 26 meeting to decide on interest rates.
Two important data points in the U.S. are influencing the Fed's decision-making process: First quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. These indicators will play a role in determining whether the central bank will proceed with rate hikes over the next few weeks or maintain the current pause in monetary tightening, which was decided on June 14.
According to the Commerce Department, U.S. GDP grew by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of this year. This revelation is likely to provide some relief to the Fed, indicating that its previous rate hikes did not overly impede economic growth. However, inflation remains a concern, with the overall trend showing a slowdown but still at relatively high levels.
Based on these factors, expectations are that the Fed will raise lending rates by another quarter percentage point on July 26, bringing them to a peak of 5.25%.
In the gold market, prices experienced a gain of approximately 5% in both futures trading and the spot price of bullion during the first half of the year. However, concerns over additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have caused some uncertainty, leading to a weakening of gold's support at the $1,900 level as price action remains within correction territory. Weekly price action suggests a correction may be underway or has culminated, as seen on the daily time frame in the video, with prices reaching $1,893 during the week despite a rebound on Friday to bring it back to $1,900.
In the video, a comprehensive price action-based technical analysis of the XAUUSD market was conducted. The analysis considered both bullish and bearish sentiments, as well as accumulation and distribution patterns. Valuable insights into potential buyer and seller behavior were gained by examining past price patterns, market behavior, recurring trends, and significant support and resistance levels.
Given the information gathered from this technical perspective, particular emphasis was placed on the key level at $1,900, which will play a crucial role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week. The reactions observed within this zone on Monday will provide valuable indicators, especially during the first half of the week. Prepare yourself to capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead! Stay tuned for updates that will assist in making informed trading decisions throughout the week.
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Note
The trading activities at the beginning of the week/month show a lack of significant movement, with the price action confined between the $1,920.50 and $1,914.50 range. We should remain patient and wait for potential trading opportunities, which could arise in the form of a breakout or breakdown of this channel. It's worth noting that if the support line breaks at this point, it could present a counter-trend opportunity. Therefore, it is crucial to be prepared and ready to secure positions accordingly. It's also important to observe that the price is currently above both the key level of the week and an ascending trendline.Happy new month!
Trade closed manually
Sell position closed at break even as buying pressure is observed around$1,912 (the neckline of the reversal pattern identified in the video on the 4H timeframe). Just as discussed during our live session this morning; We lookout for buying opportunities at the breakout/retest of the $1,914 zone.Trade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
With 60pips in profit, Buy position is triggered; secure buy as we look out for more opportunities.
Trade active
UPDATE: Secure positionsTrade active
Three positions running with an accumulated profit of 300pips. Secure all positions as we look out for more trading opportunitiesTrade closed manually
All the buy positions have been closed, yielding a minimum profit of 150 pips. In my view, this bearish movement appears to be a retracement. Therefore, we should be on the lookout for a reversal pattern that can signal a potential continuation of the trend. See you all tomoroow... Cheers!Trade active
As anticipated in my previous update, the reversal pattern observed around the $1,920 zone seems to have completed the retracement phase, indicating the possibility of a continuation in the current trend. It is advisable to secure your position while remaining vigilant for additional trading opportunities.Good Morning
Note
UPDATESelling pressure resumes
Trade active
After observing a consistent and uniform formation of lower highs over the past 22 hours, our sell position has been activated as the price broke down and retested the $1,925 level. It is advisable to secure the sell position at this point while also keeping an eye out for additional selling opportunities. The newly identified descending trendline will serve as a reference point to guide our trading decisions for today.Good Morning
Trade active
Providing an update from our recently concluded morning live session, we have witnessed the activation of a buy position as the price action broke through the descending trendline and subsequently retested it.Trade active
Third position triggered and we have an accumulated profit of 160 pips in profit; time to secure positions as we look out for more opportunitiesTrade active
All buy positions on XAUUSD were taken out with a profit of approximately 115 pips, as selling pressure has resumed. Despite this, we maintain a bullish stance at this point and eagerly await the development of new market structures. An update will be provided shortly.Note
The resurgence of buying pressure near the $1,920.50 zone indicates the continued presence of buyers, reinforcing our bullish bias, while a sell-stop order has been positioned below $1,921.50.Trade closed manually
The sell position has been successfully closed, resulting in a moderate profit, as the price action retraces back to the initial sell entry zone at approximately $1,912.50. It's worth noting that over the past 12 hours, we have observed higher lows, which could potentially set the stage for a bullish scenario. These newly formed structures in the 1-hour timeframe provide valuable guidance for our trading activities throughout today.Good Morning
Trade active
The buy position is now triggered at the breakout of the $1,920 zone; secure the position as we lookout for more trading opportunities.Trade closed manually
All buy positions closed with a modest amount of profit as selling pressure resumed following the ADP data coming in beyond expectation. Remember, we still have a sell order below the $1,914.50 level... Update coming up soonTrade active
Sell position is now triggered!Trade active
Time to secure positionTrade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Trade closed manually
All sell position is now closed hereby securing a modest profit as prices rebounded. This has led to a scenario where the price action is once again climbing above the key level for the week. As we prepare for the release of the NFP data today, it's important to note the emergence of a newly identified ascending trendline. This trendline could serve as a crucial reference point to guide our trading activities throughout the day. Our focus will primarily be on seeking buying opportunities as long as the price remains above this trendline. However, we will consider selling only if a breakdown/retest occurs. We will delve into the specifics of this strategy during our upcoming live session.Good Morning
Trade active
Four positions now triggered; secure position as NFP data came in below expectation at 209KTrade active
Still looking bullish on the 15-minute time frame. We only consider selling at the confirmation of a breakdown of the $1,916.50 levelTrade active
Over 500 pips in profit on six buy positions; now we are good, secure all positions as we look out for one more opportunity for the day.
Trade smart. Trade consciously
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trade smart. Trade consciously
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.