🔍 Short-Term Forecast for XAU/USD
Current Market Context:
Price: $3,227.375 (currently)
Recent High: Around $3,328
Structure: Strong bullish rally with minor retracement. Currently consolidating under a key resistance zone.
Fib Levels: Price has respected Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, particularly 0.618 and 0.786.
Volume Delta: High macro delta volume at 19.67%, indicating aggressive buying.
Forecast:
Bullish Bias short-term with room for a minor pullback to retest lower support zones around $3,200–$3,180 before continuation higher.
If $3,328 is broken convincingly, we could see a rally toward $3,345, $3,360, and beyond.
📈 Potential Trading Signals
Buy Signals:
Break and Retest of $3,328 Resistance – Watch for a clean break above $3,328 and retest as support to initiate a long position.
Pullback to $3,200–$3,180 Zone – This is a high confluence area of previous support + Fib level (near 0.382–0.5). Bullish reversal candlestick patterns here could be a buy trigger.
EMA Bounce – The 21 and 50 EMA are acting as dynamic support. A bounce from these EMAs could be a signal for continuation upward.
Sell Signals:
Failure to Break $3,328 With Strong Bearish Rejection – Look for long wicks and engulfing candles near resistance.
Break Below $3,180 – Could trigger a sharper correction to $3,150 and possibly $3,100.
📊 Upcoming Economic Data & Impact on XAU/USD
Key Events to Watch:
U.S. Fed Commentary & Rate Decision Expectations
U.S. CPI / PPI / Core Inflation Reports
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
Geopolitical Risks (Middle East, Ukraine, etc.)
Influence:
Hawkish Fed Data (higher inflation, strong jobs) → Stronger USD → Bearish for XAU/USD.
Dovish Signals (cooling inflation, rate cut hints) → Weaker USD → Bullish for XAU/USD.
Geo-Risk Escalation → Gold rallies as a safe haven.
📋 Day Trading Plan for XAU/USD
Trading Style: Scalping to Intraday Swing
Timeframe Focus: 15min, 1hr, 4hr
Indicators Used:
21 EMA, 50 EMA
Fibonacci Retracement/Extension
Price Action (Engulfing, Doji, Pin Bars)
Volume & Delta Volumes
Key S/R Zones
🔹 Bullish Setup (Buy the Dip Strategy):
Entry: $3,200–$3,180
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or pin bar + bounce from EMA
TP1: $3,245
TP2: $3,280
SL: $3,172 (below structure)
🔹 Breakout Strategy (Momentum Trade):
Entry: Break of $3,328 and close above
Confirmation: 15m or 1h candle close above with increased volume
TP1: $3,345
TP2: $3,360
SL: $3,312
🔻 Bearish Setup (Fade the Resistance):
Entry: Rejection of $3,328 zone
Confirmation: Long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle
TP1: $3,280
TP2: $3,250
SL: $3,335
📌 Risk Management Tips
Risk max 1–2% per trade.
Adjust position size according to volatility (ATR).
Use alerts around key levels: $3,200, $3,328, $3,345.
Avoid trading major news releases without clarity.
🗺️ XAU/USD Day Trading Roadmap (Short-Term)
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Breakout Play)
📍 Key Level to Watch:
→ Resistance at $3,328
🟢 If price breaks and closes above $3,328:
Enter LONG on retest of $3,328 as support.
TP1: $3,345
TP2: $3,360
TP3: $3,382
SL: Below $3,312
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Bullish 15m/1h close above resistance
Increasing volume
🔄 Scenario 2: Range Play / Rejection from Resistance
📍 Key Range:
Top: $3,328
Bottom: $3,200–$3,180
🔴 If price rejects $3,328:
Consider SHORT entries from resistance
TP1: $3,280
TP2: $3,250
SL: Above $3,335
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Bearish engulfing or pin bar near $3,328
Divergence or decreasing volume
🟢 Scenario 3: Buy-the-Dip (Support Bounce)
📍 Buy Zone:
→ $3,200–$3,180 support zone (confluence of Fib & EMA)
🟢 If price pulls back and holds above $3,180:
Go LONG on bullish candle
TP1: $3,245
TP2: $3,280
SL: Below $3,172
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Pin bar, hammer, or bullish engulfing
Volume bounce or EMA support hold
🔻 Scenario 4: Bearish Breakdown
📍 Critical Support:
→ $3,180
🔴 If price breaks & closes below $3,180:
Go SHORT on retest of $3,180 as resistance
TP1: $3,150
TP2: $3,100
SL: Above $3,190
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Clean break + bearish volume spike
EMAs cross bearish
🧠 Bonus Tips:
🕓 Best sessions: London and New York overlap
📅 Check calendar: U.S. CPI, PPI, and NFP are gold movers
🧯 Avoid overtrading. Let price come to your key zones.
🎯 Use alerts at $3,180, $3,200, $3,328
Current Market Context:
Price: $3,227.375 (currently)
Recent High: Around $3,328
Structure: Strong bullish rally with minor retracement. Currently consolidating under a key resistance zone.
Fib Levels: Price has respected Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, particularly 0.618 and 0.786.
Volume Delta: High macro delta volume at 19.67%, indicating aggressive buying.
Forecast:
Bullish Bias short-term with room for a minor pullback to retest lower support zones around $3,200–$3,180 before continuation higher.
If $3,328 is broken convincingly, we could see a rally toward $3,345, $3,360, and beyond.
📈 Potential Trading Signals
Buy Signals:
Break and Retest of $3,328 Resistance – Watch for a clean break above $3,328 and retest as support to initiate a long position.
Pullback to $3,200–$3,180 Zone – This is a high confluence area of previous support + Fib level (near 0.382–0.5). Bullish reversal candlestick patterns here could be a buy trigger.
EMA Bounce – The 21 and 50 EMA are acting as dynamic support. A bounce from these EMAs could be a signal for continuation upward.
Sell Signals:
Failure to Break $3,328 With Strong Bearish Rejection – Look for long wicks and engulfing candles near resistance.
Break Below $3,180 – Could trigger a sharper correction to $3,150 and possibly $3,100.
📊 Upcoming Economic Data & Impact on XAU/USD
Key Events to Watch:
U.S. Fed Commentary & Rate Decision Expectations
U.S. CPI / PPI / Core Inflation Reports
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
Geopolitical Risks (Middle East, Ukraine, etc.)
Influence:
Hawkish Fed Data (higher inflation, strong jobs) → Stronger USD → Bearish for XAU/USD.
Dovish Signals (cooling inflation, rate cut hints) → Weaker USD → Bullish for XAU/USD.
Geo-Risk Escalation → Gold rallies as a safe haven.
📋 Day Trading Plan for XAU/USD
Trading Style: Scalping to Intraday Swing
Timeframe Focus: 15min, 1hr, 4hr
Indicators Used:
21 EMA, 50 EMA
Fibonacci Retracement/Extension
Price Action (Engulfing, Doji, Pin Bars)
Volume & Delta Volumes
Key S/R Zones
🔹 Bullish Setup (Buy the Dip Strategy):
Entry: $3,200–$3,180
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or pin bar + bounce from EMA
TP1: $3,245
TP2: $3,280
SL: $3,172 (below structure)
🔹 Breakout Strategy (Momentum Trade):
Entry: Break of $3,328 and close above
Confirmation: 15m or 1h candle close above with increased volume
TP1: $3,345
TP2: $3,360
SL: $3,312
🔻 Bearish Setup (Fade the Resistance):
Entry: Rejection of $3,328 zone
Confirmation: Long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle
TP1: $3,280
TP2: $3,250
SL: $3,335
📌 Risk Management Tips
Risk max 1–2% per trade.
Adjust position size according to volatility (ATR).
Use alerts around key levels: $3,200, $3,328, $3,345.
Avoid trading major news releases without clarity.
🗺️ XAU/USD Day Trading Roadmap (Short-Term)
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Breakout Play)
📍 Key Level to Watch:
→ Resistance at $3,328
🟢 If price breaks and closes above $3,328:
Enter LONG on retest of $3,328 as support.
TP1: $3,345
TP2: $3,360
TP3: $3,382
SL: Below $3,312
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Bullish 15m/1h close above resistance
Increasing volume
🔄 Scenario 2: Range Play / Rejection from Resistance
📍 Key Range:
Top: $3,328
Bottom: $3,200–$3,180
🔴 If price rejects $3,328:
Consider SHORT entries from resistance
TP1: $3,280
TP2: $3,250
SL: Above $3,335
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Bearish engulfing or pin bar near $3,328
Divergence or decreasing volume
🟢 Scenario 3: Buy-the-Dip (Support Bounce)
📍 Buy Zone:
→ $3,200–$3,180 support zone (confluence of Fib & EMA)
🟢 If price pulls back and holds above $3,180:
Go LONG on bullish candle
TP1: $3,245
TP2: $3,280
SL: Below $3,172
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Pin bar, hammer, or bullish engulfing
Volume bounce or EMA support hold
🔻 Scenario 4: Bearish Breakdown
📍 Critical Support:
→ $3,180
🔴 If price breaks & closes below $3,180:
Go SHORT on retest of $3,180 as resistance
TP1: $3,150
TP2: $3,100
SL: Above $3,190
📊 Confirmation Needed:
Clean break + bearish volume spike
EMAs cross bearish
🧠 Bonus Tips:
🕓 Best sessions: London and New York overlap
📅 Check calendar: U.S. CPI, PPI, and NFP are gold movers
🧯 Avoid overtrading. Let price come to your key zones.
🎯 Use alerts at $3,180, $3,200, $3,328
Trade active
Running 731 pips from buy entry
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.