On the above 2 week chart Gold price action has completed the much anticipated Cup and Handle forecast to $2700, which was where Without Worries dabbled with a “short” position and was promptly stopped out much to the bugs delight.
Price action has rallied 180% since the 2016 lows, amazing. The increased Money supply / Money printing is the reason I’m often given for this historic rally. The facts are the money supply has increased 68% since the 2016 lows and not 180%, which would price an ounce at $1750 today. Now I know someone will be quick to comment my being selective with dates. To that end we can go back further, 18 years since that fits over the well understood business cycle, which is approaching its peak. Since 2007 money supply has increased 195% with Gold price action 400%. This is a bubble.
This idea is not about fundamentals however, it is technical only.
1) Price action is in bubble territory. Look left, 50% above the 5 week Gaussian channel saw corrections of at least 30%.
2) Price action on the 2 week chart prints the strongest negative divergence since the positive divergence in December 2013 at 1190 an ounce.
3) The $2000 support breakout has never confirmed support.
4) On the weekly chart a bearish engulfing candle prints as price action enters the Bollinger Band. A correction to 2730 is now highly probable.
Is it possible price action continues up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
5 week Gaussian channel
Weekly bearish engulfing
Price action has rallied 180% since the 2016 lows, amazing. The increased Money supply / Money printing is the reason I’m often given for this historic rally. The facts are the money supply has increased 68% since the 2016 lows and not 180%, which would price an ounce at $1750 today. Now I know someone will be quick to comment my being selective with dates. To that end we can go back further, 18 years since that fits over the well understood business cycle, which is approaching its peak. Since 2007 money supply has increased 195% with Gold price action 400%. This is a bubble.
This idea is not about fundamentals however, it is technical only.
1) Price action is in bubble territory. Look left, 50% above the 5 week Gaussian channel saw corrections of at least 30%.
2) Price action on the 2 week chart prints the strongest negative divergence since the positive divergence in December 2013 at 1190 an ounce.
3) The $2000 support breakout has never confirmed support.
4) On the weekly chart a bearish engulfing candle prints as price action enters the Bollinger Band. A correction to 2730 is now highly probable.
Is it possible price action continues up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
5 week Gaussian channel
Weekly bearish engulfing
Trade active
A hanging man candle print will begin with the close of today (April 10th) on the 6 day chart below. Unbelievably price action has shot up another $200 since floating the idea, completing a 100% rally since September last. Someone somewhere still thinks this is a buy.Tha hanging man candle is a good indication of buyer exhaustion. Markets typically collapse on confirmation.
Note
One week Gravestone DOJI candle confirmation...weekly
Price action cannot fall below 2900 and remain bullish. If that does happen, price action shall enter the 2 month uptrend channel shown below and confirm this whole move was a fake out.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.