Market news:
In the early Asian session on Friday (March 21), the London gold price fluctuated narrowly at a high level and is currently trading around $3,043/ounce. Gold prices fell after hitting a record high earlier on Thursday, but driven by the Federal Reserve's hint of a possible rate cut and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainties, international gold still maintains a bullish outlook. Spot gold hit a record high of $3,057 earlier in the session on Thursday, but later gave up gains due to profit-taking. Global markets are increasingly concerned about the negative impact of trade frictions, including the weakness of the global economy, the possibility of rising inflation, the escalation of geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance than expected. These factors continue to drive gold's bullish trend. The current market is intertwined with long and short forces, geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve policy expectations dominate sentiment, and the technical side shows a high overbought signal. Future trends need to be alert to short-term correction risks. Since 2025, international gold prices have risen by about 16%, and have maintained a steep upward trend in the first three months of this year. The limited correction suggests that the market is preparing for a larger continuation of the upward trend, as most of the key factors that directly affect gold's performance are expected to remain favorable for the precious metal. There is no important economic data released in the United States this trading day, but the Fed's "No. 3", permanent voting member, and President of the New York Fed Williams will deliver a speech, which investors need to pay close attention to. In addition, investors need to pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East.
Technical Review:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded in the late trading. After the second drop to 3030, it stabilized at the 3040 mark. The closing line is not an extremely weak pattern, and the structure is still strong. The daily line closed with a negative cross line, which is still a relay pattern in the trend structure. It has not yet broken away from the strong trend bull structure. The callback low-long turns to short-term, and the high-altitude continues to pay attention to the band opportunities. From a technical perspective, especially yesterday's closing of a positive line with a lower shadow, because the short-term moving average did not show weakness after yesterday's market adjustment, but continued to extend upward, especially the 5-day moving average has formed a strong support near 3023. In addition, other periodic indicators still maintain a bullish arrangement, and the golden cross of the macd indicator shows sufficient upward potential! Therefore, on the whole, the high-level shock of the daily line does not mean that the weakness will continue, and the bullish pull-up can still be expected. In the 4-hour chart, since it stabilized above the 3000 mark, gold has maintained a bullish trend and continued to hit new highs. The short-term moving average extends to the 3040-3038 area, which means that the support is still moving up, and as other periodic indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, the Bollinger Bands continue to open upward as a whole, but the MACD indicator currently has a clear top divergence, so the 4-hour chart continues to be bullish, but we must also be wary of the risk of a pullback!
Today's analysis:
From the current market, as the continuous rise of gold fully demonstrates that short-term bulls are taking the initiative, this will undoubtedly increase the probability of gold prices hitting the 3070-3080 area, but as mentioned above, we also need to be prepared for a false break or a real break in the market. At the end of today's week, since the market is still in the trend bullish structure channel, coupled with yesterday's bottoming and rebounding trend, we need to pay attention to Friday's re-high action. Trading ideas: Intraday pullbacks are low-multiple layouts, and historical highs or new highs are under pressure and then empty layouts are arranged. First look at the 3030-3060 range. For intraday operations, it is recommended to focus on low-long thinking without chasing orders. For the support below, pay attention to the 3030-3032 area. As long as the price can maintain above it, the probability of seeing the 3050-3060 area during the day is very high. On the contrary, if the support is broken, it will most likely test the 3023 area. As for the resistance, pay attention to the 3060 area. It is expected that the possibility of a breakthrough today is very small. However, considering that the current support has moved up, it is recommended to participate in short orders only when the price approaches 3055 for the first time.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3030-3032, stop loss at 3021, target at 3050-3060;
Sell short-term gold at 3055-3057, stop loss at 3066, target at 3020-3030;
Key points:
First support level: 3040, second support level: 3032, third support level: 3023
First resistance level: 3054, second resistance level: 3060, third resistance level: 3077