XAUUSD: 2014 will be the crucial level in view of the Fed!
Updated
The price of gold has struggled to surpass $2,000, facing resistance around $2,010. Daily oscillators suggest potential buying opportunities around $1,989-1.988, with support levels at $1,979-1.978 and $1,965. A break below the latter could lead to levels around $1,940. On the other hand, a break above $2,000 could pave the way for $2,007 and $2,009-2,010, with positive prospects to reach $2,022 and $2,040. However, the current price fluctuates below $2,000, with investors cautious about the future direction, influenced by FOMC minutes and positive US data. Speculations about higher interest rates and US Treasury yields hinder gold. Despite expectations for the Fed to maintain stable rates, fears of a hike persist. Weak signals from stock markets support gold as a safe haven, but the situation remains uncertain. The US dollar is recovering, but traders anticipate stability or possible rate cuts in 2024. The economic context influences gold prospects, still on track for the second consecutive weekly gain, with attention turning to US PMIs for further indications. First, I expect a price increase to the 2014 level, where I've identified two possible scenarios: a breakout of the supply zone with a subsequent retest before moving towards the 2023 high. The second scenario involves a price increase to the 2014 level, followed by a pullback towards 1981, where I've identified a crucial daily chart support and resistance level. My overall view is bullish in the long term. Greetings from Gaia, and happy trading to all.
Note
Gold prices advanced during the first half of the day, with XAU/USD reaching as high as $2,016.38 per troy ounce amid a general weakness in the US dollar. The latter gained some momentum after the opening of Wall Street, with the precious metal now trading at $2,010. The US dollar partially recovered due to a less positive sentiment, but also because sellers lost interest in the short term. Speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has concluded its monetary tightening measures prompted investors to move towards high-yielding assets, and despite the intraday decline in stock markets, the US dollar struggles to stage a more sustained recovery. Germany and the Eurozone will release their respective Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the coming days, while the United States will publish the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, next Thursday. I interpret today's uptick as a liquidity grab near recent highs; my outlook remains bearish in the short term.
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