XAUSD 2025
Market StructureHigh
Timeframe Overview (Weekly)Gold appears to be trading within a bearish retracement phase, but key bullish order blocks remain intact, hinting at potential demand zones.Key Resistance Zones:$2,718.72: Major unmitigated supply zone.$2,704.09: Strong supply level likely to attract sell-side liquidity.Key Support Zones:$2,611.99: Unmitigated bullish order block, critical for price reaction.$2,585.06: Lower significant demand zone.
Mid-Range ZonesFVGs: There are visible fair value gaps near $2,659.64 and $2,639.44, acting as magnets for price retracements before continuation.Breaker Blocks: Around $2,611.99, Gold might revisit this level for liquidity before resuming any upward movement.
Lower Timeframe (4H & 1H)Price shows consolidation within a narrow range between $2,655.81 (resistance) and $2,611.99 (support).An FVG exists around $2,659.64, where price may react before making further moves.
Long Entry:Entry Point: $2,611.99 (Bullish OB) or during a sweep below into liquidity zones.Stop Loss: Below $2,585.06 to protect against deeper retracements.Take Profit (TP):TP1: $2,655.81 (Local Resistance).
Short Entry:Entry Point: $2,704.09 (Bearish OB/Supply Zone) after confirming bearish price action.Stop Loss: Above $2,718.72.Take Profit (TP):TP1: $2,659.64 (FVG fill).TP2: $2,611.99 (Bullish OB).
Fundamental Analysis
US Dollar Strength:A strong USD could suppress Gold prices. If January's NFP or CPI data exceeds expectations, Gold may face bearish pressure due to rate hike fears.
Inflation Hedge:If CPI data in January signals persistent inflation, Gold's role as an inflation hedge could spark a rally. Watch for upward pressure toward $2,704.09 or higher.
Geopolitical Risks:Any escalation in global tensions could push Gold higher as a safe-haven asset. Pay attention to developments in the Middle East or Asia for unexpected catalysts.
Upcoming Key Events (January 2025)Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):A strong NFP report could lead to USD strength and Gold weakness.A weak NFP would likely weaken the USD, providing support for Gold to test higher resistance levels.
CPI Data:Hot CPI: Likely to boost USD and pressure Gold lower.Cool CPI: Could weaken USD,
allowing Gold to rally toward $2,704.09.
Market SentimentRisk-Off Environment:Gold is likely to attract safe-haven demand during uncertain market conditions.Liquidity Grab Scenarios:Expect engineered liquidity sweeps around $2,611.99 to trap sellers before price rallies.
Trade PlanScenario 1: Bullish CaseIf $2,611.99 holds as support and shows bullish price action:Entry: $2,611.99.SL: $2,585.06.TP1: $2,655.81.TP2: $2,704.09.
Scenario 2: Bearish CaseIf $2,704.09 rejects strongly:Entry: $2,704.09.SL: $2,718.72.TP1: $2,659.64.TP2: $2,611.99.
Scenario 3: Liquidity SweepIf price sweeps below $2,611.99 to $2,585.06:Wait for bullish confirmation before entering long positions.
Timeframe Overview (Weekly)Gold appears to be trading within a bearish retracement phase, but key bullish order blocks remain intact, hinting at potential demand zones.Key Resistance Zones:$2,718.72: Major unmitigated supply zone.$2,704.09: Strong supply level likely to attract sell-side liquidity.Key Support Zones:$2,611.99: Unmitigated bullish order block, critical for price reaction.$2,585.06: Lower significant demand zone.
Mid-Range ZonesFVGs: There are visible fair value gaps near $2,659.64 and $2,639.44, acting as magnets for price retracements before continuation.Breaker Blocks: Around $2,611.99, Gold might revisit this level for liquidity before resuming any upward movement.
Lower Timeframe (4H & 1H)Price shows consolidation within a narrow range between $2,655.81 (resistance) and $2,611.99 (support).An FVG exists around $2,659.64, where price may react before making further moves.
Long Entry:Entry Point: $2,611.99 (Bullish OB) or during a sweep below into liquidity zones.Stop Loss: Below $2,585.06 to protect against deeper retracements.Take Profit (TP):TP1: $2,655.81 (Local Resistance).
Short Entry:Entry Point: $2,704.09 (Bearish OB/Supply Zone) after confirming bearish price action.Stop Loss: Above $2,718.72.Take Profit (TP):TP1: $2,659.64 (FVG fill).TP2: $2,611.99 (Bullish OB).
Fundamental Analysis
US Dollar Strength:A strong USD could suppress Gold prices. If January's NFP or CPI data exceeds expectations, Gold may face bearish pressure due to rate hike fears.
Inflation Hedge:If CPI data in January signals persistent inflation, Gold's role as an inflation hedge could spark a rally. Watch for upward pressure toward $2,704.09 or higher.
Geopolitical Risks:Any escalation in global tensions could push Gold higher as a safe-haven asset. Pay attention to developments in the Middle East or Asia for unexpected catalysts.
Upcoming Key Events (January 2025)Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):A strong NFP report could lead to USD strength and Gold weakness.A weak NFP would likely weaken the USD, providing support for Gold to test higher resistance levels.
CPI Data:Hot CPI: Likely to boost USD and pressure Gold lower.Cool CPI: Could weaken USD,
allowing Gold to rally toward $2,704.09.
Market SentimentRisk-Off Environment:Gold is likely to attract safe-haven demand during uncertain market conditions.Liquidity Grab Scenarios:Expect engineered liquidity sweeps around $2,611.99 to trap sellers before price rallies.
Trade PlanScenario 1: Bullish CaseIf $2,611.99 holds as support and shows bullish price action:Entry: $2,611.99.SL: $2,585.06.TP1: $2,655.81.TP2: $2,704.09.
Scenario 2: Bearish CaseIf $2,704.09 rejects strongly:Entry: $2,704.09.SL: $2,718.72.TP1: $2,659.64.TP2: $2,611.99.
Scenario 3: Liquidity SweepIf price sweeps below $2,611.99 to $2,585.06:Wait for bullish confirmation before entering long positions.
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