Is there a signal for gold price bottom hunting?
Market news:
In the early Asian session on Monday (March 3), spot gold opened higher and rose by about $17 to $2,876/ounce, recovering most of the losses on Friday, as Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump had a quarrel during the meeting, which hit the hope of reaching a peace agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian war soon; the market's concerns about Trump's tariff threats also attracted bargain-hunting to support London gold prices! Although Trump reiterated that tariffs would be imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods from March 4 and that tariffs on China would be upgraded to 20%, the safe-haven properties of international gold have not been recognized by the market - the strengthening of the US dollar and the surge in demand for US bonds have weakened the attractiveness of the gold investment market. At the same time, the global risk aversion sentiment has caused investors to sell gold and stocks, and funds have turned to US Treasury bonds, a traditional safe-haven asset. On March 2, local time, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said that the United States will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. The current market focus is on further news on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Investors also need to pay attention to the US February ISM manufacturing PMI data and the speech by St. Louis Fed President Moussallem.
Technical Review:
Gold ended its 9-day winning streak on the weekly chart. The weekly chart has adjusted sharply for the first time since December. The retracement tested the MA5/7-day moving average, and the RSI indicator Zhonghui’s central axis value was 50. The daily chart has adjusted downward for four consecutive trading days. The MA10/7-day moving average formed a high of 2916 and opened downward and gradually moved down to 2903/12. At the same time, the 5-day moving average moved down to 2885, and the RSI indicator central axis was adjusted. The price was running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band.The price of the short-term four-hour chart was in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band channel, and the moving average opened downward. However, the hourly and four-hour charts RSI indicators tested the 20 value and formed an overbought closing on Friday, and are currently turning upward. Coupled with the stimulus of the weekend market news, gold opened at 2859 in the early trading and then rose sharply to 2876. A strong counterattack and pull-up was formed. For trading at the beginning of the week, considering the sharp rise in the early trading, we will not chase the long position. The downward channel trend line of 2893/2920 has not been broken, so the trading is still mainly based on the trend line near the rebound high position, assisted by low long position.
Today's analysis:
Today, Monday, as expected, gold opened and ushered in a big rise. Today, why did gold encounter such a big rise in the morning? In fact, this is more of a retracement after the collapse of gold. In addition, there was no major news relief in the market during the weekend. On the contrary, Russia and Ukraine did not implement the armistice agreement, and the implementation of tariffs was about to land. This led to the demand for risk aversion by bulls, which is why gold encountered a 20-point rise as soon as it opened. From the current market, even if the price of gold may fall in the short term, we should also be wary of the weak non-agricultural employment data or slowing wage growth this week, which may rekindle the market's expectations of the Fed's accelerated interest rate cuts and promote a rebound in gold prices. If it breaks through $2,900, it is expected to restart the bullish trend. If the negative non-agricultural data will strengthen the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, gold may be further under pressure to test the $2,800 support. After the technical break, the short-term momentum may be released faster, and the short-term downside risk will increase. So for today’s operation, the market will certainly stir up further waves. In the case of a sharp rise in the morning, if 2880 is not broken, we can still see a preliminary decline to the 2860-2850 area. In other words, the long position still needs to wait for 2860-2850 to be broken before seeking to enter the market. On the upside, if it breaks and stabilizes above 2880, you can go long directly and look at 2890-2900 without breaking before seeking to go short. Of course, the possibility of malicious false reversal above and below is not ruled out today. It is relatively better for you to compress the shock range to the range of 2900-2850, and then wait for the trend to become clear to follow the market.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 2850-2853, stop loss at 2842, target at 2870-2880;
Sell short-term gold at 2878-2880, stop loss at 2889, target at 2860-2850;
Key points:
First support level: 2860, second support level: 2853, third support level: 2843
First resistance level: 2880, second resistance level: 2888, third resistance level: 2896
In the early Asian session on Monday (March 3), spot gold opened higher and rose by about $17 to $2,876/ounce, recovering most of the losses on Friday, as Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump had a quarrel during the meeting, which hit the hope of reaching a peace agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian war soon; the market's concerns about Trump's tariff threats also attracted bargain-hunting to support London gold prices! Although Trump reiterated that tariffs would be imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods from March 4 and that tariffs on China would be upgraded to 20%, the safe-haven properties of international gold have not been recognized by the market - the strengthening of the US dollar and the surge in demand for US bonds have weakened the attractiveness of the gold investment market. At the same time, the global risk aversion sentiment has caused investors to sell gold and stocks, and funds have turned to US Treasury bonds, a traditional safe-haven asset. On March 2, local time, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said that the United States will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. The current market focus is on further news on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Investors also need to pay attention to the US February ISM manufacturing PMI data and the speech by St. Louis Fed President Moussallem.
Technical Review:
Gold ended its 9-day winning streak on the weekly chart. The weekly chart has adjusted sharply for the first time since December. The retracement tested the MA5/7-day moving average, and the RSI indicator Zhonghui’s central axis value was 50. The daily chart has adjusted downward for four consecutive trading days. The MA10/7-day moving average formed a high of 2916 and opened downward and gradually moved down to 2903/12. At the same time, the 5-day moving average moved down to 2885, and the RSI indicator central axis was adjusted. The price was running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band.The price of the short-term four-hour chart was in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band channel, and the moving average opened downward. However, the hourly and four-hour charts RSI indicators tested the 20 value and formed an overbought closing on Friday, and are currently turning upward. Coupled with the stimulus of the weekend market news, gold opened at 2859 in the early trading and then rose sharply to 2876. A strong counterattack and pull-up was formed. For trading at the beginning of the week, considering the sharp rise in the early trading, we will not chase the long position. The downward channel trend line of 2893/2920 has not been broken, so the trading is still mainly based on the trend line near the rebound high position, assisted by low long position.
Today's analysis:
Today, Monday, as expected, gold opened and ushered in a big rise. Today, why did gold encounter such a big rise in the morning? In fact, this is more of a retracement after the collapse of gold. In addition, there was no major news relief in the market during the weekend. On the contrary, Russia and Ukraine did not implement the armistice agreement, and the implementation of tariffs was about to land. This led to the demand for risk aversion by bulls, which is why gold encountered a 20-point rise as soon as it opened. From the current market, even if the price of gold may fall in the short term, we should also be wary of the weak non-agricultural employment data or slowing wage growth this week, which may rekindle the market's expectations of the Fed's accelerated interest rate cuts and promote a rebound in gold prices. If it breaks through $2,900, it is expected to restart the bullish trend. If the negative non-agricultural data will strengthen the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, gold may be further under pressure to test the $2,800 support. After the technical break, the short-term momentum may be released faster, and the short-term downside risk will increase. So for today’s operation, the market will certainly stir up further waves. In the case of a sharp rise in the morning, if 2880 is not broken, we can still see a preliminary decline to the 2860-2850 area. In other words, the long position still needs to wait for 2860-2850 to be broken before seeking to enter the market. On the upside, if it breaks and stabilizes above 2880, you can go long directly and look at 2890-2900 without breaking before seeking to go short. Of course, the possibility of malicious false reversal above and below is not ruled out today. It is relatively better for you to compress the shock range to the range of 2900-2850, and then wait for the trend to become clear to follow the market.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 2850-2853, stop loss at 2842, target at 2870-2880;
Sell short-term gold at 2878-2880, stop loss at 2889, target at 2860-2850;
Key points:
First support level: 2860, second support level: 2853, third support level: 2843
First resistance level: 2880, second resistance level: 2888, third resistance level: 2896
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Share free trading signals every day, with an accuracy rate of up to 98% and a return rate of over 200%. Please click me to get it
t.me/+T3KTC22K-2BlZmNh
t.me/+T3KTC22K-2BlZmNh
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.