Long

Updated

Why do I think gold will continue bullish momentum till 26 July?

Dear Fellow Traders,

Why do I think like this?

What are the reasons behind it?

I am going to breakdown all of these.

Part A (Price Action)

1. Price had made last Higher High (2067) on 4 May 2023
2. Price had made the Major CHOCH (Change of Character) by breaking the previous Higher Low (1969) on 18 May 2023
3. So the Major CHOCH order block sets at (2007-2022)
4. Price never comes back to this zone again to execute more orders and continue downwards.
5. In fact price made series of Lower High and Lower Low till 29 June 2023
6. On 6 July price made a new Higher Low (1902)
7. On 12 July price had broke the previous Lower High (1935) and made a CHOCH (Change of Character)
8. So the CHOCH order block sets at (1912-1928)
9. Price will come back to this zone again and execute more orders to move up toward the zone (POINT 3 above)
10. Then FALL

Part B (Fundamental)

1. FED has announced before they had chance to hike the rate twice in coming days
2. On 26 July we have FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate
3. Analyst believe there is 89% of chances that FED will raise the rate by 25 point

Note

4 Hour Break Down:

a) Price broke the neckline of inverted head and shoulder on 12 July
b) Left an unmitigated order block zone (1912-1926)
c) Made a new high at the strong key supply zone (1963-1968)

What's next then?

1. Either Price will break the 1955 zone and move to the unmitigated order block zone (1912-1926) where an discount zone also exists and shoot the price upwards

2. Or the price will go back to the strong supply zone (1963-1968) and execute more orders then do the (1)

Note

1 Hour Break Down:

a) Price started Elliot Impulsive 1 from Right Shoulder on 6 July and completed it on 7 July.
b) Elliot Correction 2 was completed on 10 July at the zone of left shoulder support zone (1910-1913) and started the Elliot Impulsive 3
c) Elliot Impulsive 3 broke the neckline on 12 July and completed the wave on 13 July at key resistance level (1962-1968)

What's next then?

1. Either Price will start the Elliot Correction 4 from this key resistance level towards the Discount Zone of Wave 2-3 (1923-1932)

2. Or the price may retest the neckline and move upward.

Note

Price is forming a Symmetrical Expanding Triangle

Any of these scenarios are possible.

But it seems like Bear will lead today's market.

A good short opportunity has formed.

Note

So the price has completed the all waves inside the triangle.

Now lets see in which direction it breaks.

Note

So it's happening as I mentioned above.

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I am still adamant to this.

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I am still confident that the price will come to either of these two unmitigated order block and then shoot up sharply

1st Zone: 1933.595-1936.540
2nd Zone: 1924.510-1926.880

Note

I am fully confident now that GOLD will be Bullish till FOMC.

A good buy opportunity is possible from 1955 zone.

This 1985 zone seems an inducement level to me.

Price will collapse from 2000 zone after FOMC.

Note

Price has broken the FALLING WEDGE.

Note

So it is still bullish even 27 today that means we will certainly see GOLD price above 2000 very soon.

Note

Please see the break down of H4 and H1 above

Note

4 Hour Break Down:

a) Price broke the neckline of inverted head and shoulder on 12 July
b) Left an unmitigated order block zone (1912-1926)
c) Made a new high at the strong key supply zone (1963-1968)

What's next then?

1. Either Price will break the 1955 zone and move to the unmitigated order block zone (1912-1926) where an discount zone also exists and shoot the price upwards

2. Or the price will go back to the strong supply zone (1963-1968) and execute more orders then do the (1)

1 Hour Break Down:

a) Price started Elliot Impulsive 1 from Right Shoulder on 6 July and completed it on 7 July.
b) Elliot Correction 2 was completed on 10 July at the zone of left shoulder support zone (1910-1913) and started the Elliot Impulsive 3
c) Elliot Impulsive 3 broke the neckline on 12 July and completed the wave on 13 July at key resistance level (1962-1968)

What's next then?

1. Either Price will start the Elliot Correction 4 from this key resistance level towards the Discount Zone of Wave 2-3 (1923-1932)

2. Or the price may retest the neckline and move upward.

These were the breakdown of the H4 and H1 analysis.

Note

Price has failed to retest the neckline so we have 2 unmitigated order blocks now

For Hour 4 Time-frame: 1912-1926
For Hour 1 Time-frame: 1923-1932

Will the price shoot up from these zones?

Lets see ....

I am confident now to go long after a bullish rejection or even a quick spike after the Unemployment news

Note

My Gold buying zone 1923-1932

I am at long.

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Awesome, I am invested total on GOLD today .....

Lets see

TP1 1950
TP2 1960
TP3 1970

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Lets gooooooo

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REMEMBER THE ZONE

My Gold buying zone 1923-1932

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A good buying zone indeed in a 4 hours chart

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Seems like more orders are executing 👌👌👌

Only unmitigated zone (1974-1983)

Will it be my target or more than it?!

Don't forget to boost and follow .....

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i am still obsessed with long.

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My last GOLD buy is today before CPI

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My buying will be around 1924-1927

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I am all done with buy positions.

Lets see.

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Is 1915.xxx the floor before CPI??

My SL is at 1910 ...

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Price should start to react before closing of the day or else a full bearish momentum is formed in the market.

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A big day ....

Sydney Session moves up the price
Tokyo Session moves up the price
London Session seems like doing so .....

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Is it a fake break of ascending triangle?

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How things are going before CPI !!

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How the H4 chart is showing.

A falling wedge ....

ABCD waves are done, now E is forming ...

A breakout after CPI is likely

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I am clueless but the 1913 zone seems strong enough for buyers

Note

Why the price is not hitting my 1910 SL yet????

mamnunamalik

Also on:

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Disclaimer

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mamnunamalik

Also on:

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XAUUSD UPDATE: Is GOLD going for a trend reversal or a TRAP?

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