XAUUSD — July 3rd, 2025: Is the Downtrend Finally Over?

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Gold (XAUUSD) opened today with a bullish gap, and continued the momentum from Tuesday’s breakout above the major downtrendline that had capped the market for weeks. This technical breakout was long-awaited by many traders, and it's now leading us into a potential trend reversal phase — but not without resistance.

Price has now reached a critical resistance zone at 3366, which previously acted as a strong supply area during the last leg of the downtrend. If this level is broken decisively (ideally with a 4H candle close and follow-through), it may signal a clean shift toward a mid-term uptrend, with upside targets at 3379, 3403, and even 3430.

That said, rejection at 3366 has already triggered a minor pullback. We’re now watching the 3343–3351 zone as a potential support and an optimal buy entry area. If this zone holds, it could provide the fuel needed for bulls to continue their push.

🟢 Suggested Trade Plan

BUY LIMIT 3343–3351

Stop Loss 3325

Take Profit 1 3379

Take Profit 2 3403

Take Profit 3 3430
(Alternatively, consider a BUY STOP above 3370 in case of direct breakout)

📌 Market Structure

Resistance 3 3430

Resistance 2 3403

Resistance 1 3382

Pivot 3366

Support 1 3342

Support 2 3322

Support 3 3305

⚠️ Important Macro Alert
Today’s session is highly risky due to the early release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is scheduled today instead of Friday because of the U.S. Independence Day (July 4) holiday tomorrow.

This brings a major volatility spike risk during the New York session. Manage your position size wisely, avoid emotional trades, and wait for solid confirmations.

Discipline beats prediction. Trade what you see — not what you feel.
Keep healthy so we can keep trading and we can keep on profiting.

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