XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details
Updated
Gold's recovery near $2,030 persists as the US Dollar adopts a sideways trend. Despite a less convincing pullback in Gold, traders have tempered expectations for a Fed rate cut in March. While the precious metal has rebounded significantly amid escalating Middle East conflicts, the short-term outlook remains cautious due to limited upside potential, influenced by diminishing bets supporting an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed.)
Uncertainty surrounds the US inflation outlook as price growth gradually recedes, counterbalanced by a robust economy fueled by strong household spending. This dynamic adds pressure to inflation and reinforces the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance for an extended period.
The upcoming monetary policy meeting on January 31 is anticipated to see the Fed holding interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time. Market attention will shift to the Fed's commentary on fitting the expected three interest rate cuts within the remaining seven policy meetings of 2024. Notably, Goolsbee highlights the necessity for further declines in housing inflation for a sustained reduction in price pressures, cautioning that inflation reversals could prompt rate hikes.
How will we navigate this market environment in the coming week?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,005 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,005 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
Immerse yourself in the latest dynamics of the Gold market! Stay well-informed to make strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Uncertainty surrounds the US inflation outlook as price growth gradually recedes, counterbalanced by a robust economy fueled by strong household spending. This dynamic adds pressure to inflation and reinforces the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance for an extended period.
The upcoming monetary policy meeting on January 31 is anticipated to see the Fed holding interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time. Market attention will shift to the Fed's commentary on fitting the expected three interest rate cuts within the remaining seven policy meetings of 2024. Notably, Goolsbee highlights the necessity for further declines in housing inflation for a sustained reduction in price pressures, cautioning that inflation reversals could prompt rate hikes.
How will we navigate this market environment in the coming week?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,005 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,005 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
Immerse yourself in the latest dynamics of the Gold market! Stay well-informed to make strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Note
The new week unfolds with a bearish tone as Gold remains under pressure in the Asian session, halting a two-day recovery and trading in negative territory around $2,020, marking our newly identified support for the week. Despite reduced expectations for an early Fed interest rate cut and an overall positive risk sentiment, XAU/USD struggles to gather momentum.Recent upbeat US macro data, including a positive consumer sentiment index on Friday, reflects a robust economy. Furthermore, hawkish remarks from influential Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have tempered expectations of an imminent rate cut, diverting flows from safe-haven assets. However, potential geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about China's economic growth may provide some backing to safe-haven XAU/USD.
The flight to safety puts pressure on US Treasury bond yields, keeping USD bulls on the defensive. This dynamic is expected to limit further losses for Gold, urging caution among bearish traders. Today's trading activities will be guided by the newly identified range on the 1-hour timeframe, offering a benchmark amidst the current market conditions.
Good Morning.
Note
#XAUUSDUPDATE
No position triggered yet
Trade active
Two buy positions were triggered as the price of Gold saw an improved dip-buying activity during the Asian session, enabling it to recoup some of its recent losses. The safe-haven asset may have received support from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns surrounding China's sluggish economic recovery. Additionally, a relatively subdued US Dollar, influenced by a softer tone in US Treasury bond yields, further bolstered the commodity.Despite these factors, a substantial upward movement in the Gold price remains uncertain due to reduced expectations for an early Fed rate cut. This shift follows hawkish remarks from several Fed officials, who emphasized that it was premature to contemplate interest rate reductions. Consequently,
market participants have tempered their anticipation for aggressive policy easing in 2024.
Given this landscape, it is prudent to exercise caution and safeguard the existing buy position while remaining attentive to potential new trading prospects.
Good Morning
Trade closed manually
Buy positions closed at breakeven, anticipating re-entry. The ascending trendline remains our guide for today's trading activities.Note
The market has remained within a tight trading range, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty. Market participants appear hesitant to take aggressive positions, instead choosing to await further cues on the potential timing of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. As a result, attention is focused on this week's significant US macro releases, beginning with the S & P Global publications later today. Expectations for the first Fed interest rate cut have been pushed from March to May, a factor that is perceived to undermine Gold prices. However, a slight retreat in US Treasury bond yields has put pressure on the US Dollar.In my view, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the uncertain global economic outlook may be providing support to safe-haven assets like Gold amid global uncertainties. Consequently, I will maintain a bullish bias, using the identified structures on the 1H timeframe as a guide.
Good Morning
Trade closed: stop reached
Stop-loss hit as Upbeat PMI readings from the US helped the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield retrace its daily decline and weighed on XAU/USD. The levels identified on the chart remains our guiding light going forward.Trade closed manually
All sell positions have been closed as gold prices face challenges in recovering from the previous day's substantial losses during the Asian session. The US Dollar index continues its consolidative movement amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline. The market exhibits indecision, influenced by persistent geopolitical tensions. Traders await the release of the fourth-quarter US GDP growth figures later today for potential short-term trading opportunities. Our chart's identified levels will guide today's trading activities, with a watchful eye on a new temporary demand zone. Good Morning
Note
UPDATETrade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Buy position triggered and Gold price recovers despite stronger-than-anticipated US Q4 GDP data.
Trade active
The buy position triggered yesterday remains active, but it has faced challenges in gaining momentum despite the declining US bond yields. The current geopolitical risks and uncertain global economic outlook continue to support the metal. However, the possibility of delayed Fed rate cuts may limit potential gains, especially with the upcoming release of the US PCE Price Index.Market participants may have to wait on the sidelines in anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, scheduled for release later today. This crucial inflation data could offer insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions, influencing demand for the US Dollar and providing significant momentum for safe-haven assets.
In addition to this, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the uncertain global economic landscape further bolster the appeal of safe-haven precious metals. Nonetheless, the decreasing likelihood of a more aggressive Fed policy easing in 2024 is restraining bullish traders from making new bets on XAU/USD and capping potential gains.
Considering these factors, the current market phase appears indecisive, prompting participants to await significant signals before making aggressive moves. At this point, our best course of action is to exercise patience and rely on our technical structure as a guide for identifying trading opportunities.
Happy Friday
Trade smart. Trade consciously
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