Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD, breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis, after the recent uptrend, we've entered a corrective phase. This correction coincides with rising economic tariffs from the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from the EU and China—particularly targeting U.S. goods.
Interestingly, gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset, also experienced a decline. This raises a red flag: when even gold falls, it signals that markets are likely pricing in an economic slowdown. Everyone seems to be chasing liquidity.
The recession risk is very real, so trade cautiously until a clear trend emerges. Right now, the market is in a state of uncertainty. Given the sharp declines in stocks, gold, and silver, we could see range-bound movement or consolidation this week—and possibly into the next.
Despite this, the major daily trend for gold remains upward, although momentum has clearly weakened. If we see a lower high and a confirmed break below support at 2958.53, that would significantly shift the outlook—potentially leading to a deeper correction or even a trend reversal, especially in case of broader economic recession signals.
Let’s zoom into the 1H timeframe for actionable trade setups:
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
- Trigger: Break & close above 3039.58
- Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during breakout + RSI climbing above OB
- Invalidation: Rejection and close back below 2994.10
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
- Trigger: Rejection at 3019.98 followed by a drop below 2958.51
- Confirmation: RSI entering oversold
⚠️ Key Notes:
- Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging. Wait for clear confirmations before entering any trade.
Stay sharp, stay Skeptical, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis!
Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD, breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis, after the recent uptrend, we've entered a corrective phase. This correction coincides with rising economic tariffs from the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from the EU and China—particularly targeting U.S. goods.
Interestingly, gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset, also experienced a decline. This raises a red flag: when even gold falls, it signals that markets are likely pricing in an economic slowdown. Everyone seems to be chasing liquidity.
The recession risk is very real, so trade cautiously until a clear trend emerges. Right now, the market is in a state of uncertainty. Given the sharp declines in stocks, gold, and silver, we could see range-bound movement or consolidation this week—and possibly into the next.
Despite this, the major daily trend for gold remains upward, although momentum has clearly weakened. If we see a lower high and a confirmed break below support at 2958.53, that would significantly shift the outlook—potentially leading to a deeper correction or even a trend reversal, especially in case of broader economic recession signals.
Let’s zoom into the 1H timeframe for actionable trade setups:
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
- Trigger: Break & close above 3039.58
- Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during breakout + RSI climbing above OB
- Invalidation: Rejection and close back below 2994.10
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
- Trigger: Rejection at 3019.98 followed by a drop below 2958.51
- Confirmation: RSI entering oversold
⚠️ Key Notes:
- Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging. Wait for clear confirmations before entering any trade.
Stay sharp, stay Skeptical, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis!
Trade closed: target reached
🎯 Trigger Hit | XAU/USD Long Reached R/R 2!Hey guys! The Long trigger above 3039.58 activated yesterday and hit our R/R 2 target!
Make sure to turn on analysis notifications and follow so you don’t miss the next triggers. Let’s grow together! 🚀💰
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.