Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at the GOLD price — because lately, many people have been asking:
"Where is the top?"
"Are we still bullish on gold?"
And more importantly:
"What’s your take on this as both a crypto trader and macro analyst?"
So let’s dive in and break it down from both the fundamental and technical perspectives.
🟡 Gold and Its Correlation with Other Assets
As you probably know, gold is a safe haven for long-term investors, central banks, and governments.
So when inflation rises or when we see money-printing policies to avoid a recession, gold tends to shine — because it’s a classic anti-inflation asset.
But here’s the catch:
Gold isn’t the only game in town.
Other inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin, stocks, silver, and real estate also compete for capital — so it’s natural to see money rotate between them.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Twist — Gold vs Bitcoin?
A few weeks ago, Donald J. Trump hinted that the U.S. might sell part of its gold reserves to buy BTC.
Crazy, right? But here’s where the story gets really interesting...
If this happens, we could start seeing an inverse relationship between gold and BTC — kind of like the early days of oil vs. gold correlations.
Let me break it down.
🤖 BTC vs. Gold — Simple Math, Big Picture
Gold’s current market cap is about $22 Trillion — which is almost 20 times larger than BTC’s.
Let’s ask a simple question: Do we need another
22T to pump gold 100%? 👉 No.
Why?
Because most gold is held by:
Central banks
Governments
Jewelry industry
Only a small percentage is available for trading. So even a tiny reduction in selling pressure = huge impact on price.
But here’s the flip side: BTC’s market cap is just $1.7T, and a huge portion is held by:
Institutions like BlackRock
Whales like Michael Saylor
Lost wallets from early adoption
So it’s simple:
👉 BTC has way more room to grow, and is easier to store, transfer, and scale.
If we enter a new QE cycle, the upside potential for BTC will be far greater than gold — and smart money knows this.
🧠 Technical Analysis (TA) Time
On the chart, gold has broken above a rising wedge — which is typically a bearish pattern.
So... is this a trap?
In my opinion: No.
Why?
Because if the wedge breakdown were to play out fully, the target would be around $280, which is just laughable 😂 — a 90% crash? Highly unlikely.
Instead, here’s the bullish scenario:
If gold can hold above the monthly support, we may see a slow, steady rally — not parabolic like crypto, but meaningful.
🎯 Bullish target: $7,760
📉 DXY, Fed Policies & Gold’s Future
As I said in my last idea about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar is showing weakness, and the Fed might cut rates to avoid a recession.
Check the chart I posted here: 👉 DXY Chart Idea :
What do we see?
A clear double top pattern
Breakdown from key support
Probable shift to QE mode
All of this could ignite a new bull cycle — and yes, gold may benefit...
…but don’t forget what I said about Trump.
If the U.S. starts selling gold to buy BTC, we might see a short-term correction in gold back to the green support box before the real breakout.
So make sure to stay sharp — and as always:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at the GOLD price — because lately, many people have been asking:
"Where is the top?"
"Are we still bullish on gold?"
And more importantly:
"What’s your take on this as both a crypto trader and macro analyst?"
So let’s dive in and break it down from both the fundamental and technical perspectives.
🟡 Gold and Its Correlation with Other Assets
As you probably know, gold is a safe haven for long-term investors, central banks, and governments.
So when inflation rises or when we see money-printing policies to avoid a recession, gold tends to shine — because it’s a classic anti-inflation asset.
But here’s the catch:
Gold isn’t the only game in town.
Other inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin, stocks, silver, and real estate also compete for capital — so it’s natural to see money rotate between them.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Twist — Gold vs Bitcoin?
A few weeks ago, Donald J. Trump hinted that the U.S. might sell part of its gold reserves to buy BTC.
Crazy, right? But here’s where the story gets really interesting...
If this happens, we could start seeing an inverse relationship between gold and BTC — kind of like the early days of oil vs. gold correlations.
Let me break it down.
🤖 BTC vs. Gold — Simple Math, Big Picture
Gold’s current market cap is about $22 Trillion — which is almost 20 times larger than BTC’s.
Let’s ask a simple question: Do we need another
22T to pump gold 100%? 👉 No.Why?
Because most gold is held by:
Central banks
Governments
Jewelry industry
Only a small percentage is available for trading. So even a tiny reduction in selling pressure = huge impact on price.
But here’s the flip side: BTC’s market cap is just $1.7T, and a huge portion is held by:
Institutions like BlackRock
Whales like Michael Saylor
Lost wallets from early adoption
So it’s simple:
👉 BTC has way more room to grow, and is easier to store, transfer, and scale.
If we enter a new QE cycle, the upside potential for BTC will be far greater than gold — and smart money knows this.
🧠 Technical Analysis (TA) Time
On the chart, gold has broken above a rising wedge — which is typically a bearish pattern.
So... is this a trap?
In my opinion: No.
Why?
Because if the wedge breakdown were to play out fully, the target would be around $280, which is just laughable 😂 — a 90% crash? Highly unlikely.
Instead, here’s the bullish scenario:
If gold can hold above the monthly support, we may see a slow, steady rally — not parabolic like crypto, but meaningful.
🎯 Bullish target: $7,760
📉 DXY, Fed Policies & Gold’s Future
As I said in my last idea about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar is showing weakness, and the Fed might cut rates to avoid a recession.
Check the chart I posted here: 👉 DXY Chart Idea :
What do we see?
A clear double top pattern
Breakdown from key support
Probable shift to QE mode
All of this could ignite a new bull cycle — and yes, gold may benefit...
…but don’t forget what I said about Trump.
If the U.S. starts selling gold to buy BTC, we might see a short-term correction in gold back to the green support box before the real breakout.
So make sure to stay sharp — and as always:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
_____________________________________
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable ,
But almost always profitable 🐺
TElEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/KIU_COIN
_____________________________________
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable ,
But almost always profitable 🐺
TElEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/KIU_COIN
_____________________________________
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
_____________________________________
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable ,
But almost always profitable 🐺
TElEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/KIU_COIN
_____________________________________
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable ,
But almost always profitable 🐺
TElEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/KIU_COIN
_____________________________________
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.