Short

Jnug to Gold "New cycle started couple weeks early"

Updated

It appears that a new gold cycle started a couple weeks early this year. With the slight higher high from the consolidation, that is what appears to have happened. I am still expecting a zig zag pattern so we should start to consolidate next week back down to the multiple moving averages before pushing up to finish the E wave. RSI 10 is very overbought and there was decent selling near the end of the day. Jnug appears to want to drop but it needs gold to drop with it to help it out. There should be another rate hike in March so I see this rally ending around mid February before starting its bigger drop. My original idea for gold to drop to the trend line area fell short and is still posted for all to see. I am adjusting the cycles on the next chart. Gold needs to break out of this large wedge (for me to change my view) which should be approximately $1349 range for mid February. After that it would also need to make a higher high than last years high. So in the mean time, I will be waiting for a decent dip in gold and Jnug.

Jnug chart

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Jnug update

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Jnug update
Just waiting for the Bearish divergence to play out. The above chart was the 4 hour and this is the daily below. Notice that volume is dropping.

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I know I already updated my view on gold but I think the dip is a little too deep. So I am posting my thought for a more conservative dip.
I am thinking a 1 - 2 week dip and then a move up to the top of the pink wedge.

And Jnug should follow accordingly.

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Here is my GLD chart with slightly different labeling. The long term is still the same from my perspective. Notice how price stopped right at the trend line last week. I am thinking that I should just pay more attention to GLD than the actual gold chart.

SalN

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