XAUUSD M15 BUY Pullback
Updated
Gold Market Outlook — Fundamentals
- Gold prices retreated on Friday due to profit-taking after a strong rally earlier in the week. However, the precious metal still logged an impressive weekly gain of $55.48 or 2.32%, settling at $2442.50.
- Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including the killing of Hamas leaders, fueled safe-haven demand for gold. The assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and fears of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting a potential September rate cut significantly impacted gold prices. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a sharp increase in trader bets for a 50-basis-point cut in September, rising from 11.8% earlier in the week to 28.5%.
- Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report released on Friday added to the bullish case for gold. With only 114,000 jobs added in July, well below the expected 185,000, and unemployment rising to 4.3%, expectations for Fed rate cuts strengthened further.
Conclusion
The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by:
• Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Increasing likelihood of Fed rate cut.
• Weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields.
• Strong central bank purchases and potential renewed ETF investor demand
Analysts suggest the year-end target of $2,500 might be reached sooner if current trends persist.
However, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and short-term pullbacks due to profit-taking at these elevated levels.
- Gold prices retreated on Friday due to profit-taking after a strong rally earlier in the week. However, the precious metal still logged an impressive weekly gain of $55.48 or 2.32%, settling at $2442.50.
- Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including the killing of Hamas leaders, fueled safe-haven demand for gold. The assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and fears of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its proxies bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting a potential September rate cut significantly impacted gold prices. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a sharp increase in trader bets for a 50-basis-point cut in September, rising from 11.8% earlier in the week to 28.5%.
- Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report released on Friday added to the bullish case for gold. With only 114,000 jobs added in July, well below the expected 185,000, and unemployment rising to 4.3%, expectations for Fed rate cuts strengthened further.
Conclusion
The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by:
• Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Increasing likelihood of Fed rate cut.
• Weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields.
• Strong central bank purchases and potential renewed ETF investor demand
Analysts suggest the year-end target of $2,500 might be reached sooner if current trends persist.
However, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and short-term pullbacks due to profit-taking at these elevated levels.
Trade closed: target reached
Target reached +200pips
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