Key Observations From the 
XAUUSD COT Data
Non-commercial traders hold 324,333 long positions vs 73,451 short positions, showing strong bullish sentiment.
Spreads: Significant spread positions (332,329 contracts) suggest hedging strategies, but the longs clearly dominate.
Let’s break down this COT data and identify actionable insights for your XAU/USD trading strategy.
Here's my interpretation:
________________________________________
1. Open Interest Analysis
Total open interest is 851,437 contracts, which reflects the market's overall participation. A change of 24,835 contracts from 03/25/25 suggests increased market activity and potential volatility.
This surge might indicate that traders are repositioning ahead of significant events, which could align with your BBMA setups.
________________________________________
2. Non-Commercial Positions (Speculators)
Long: 324,333 | Short: 73,451 | Spreads: 332,329
Speculators hold significantly more long positions compared to short positions, indicating bullish sentiment.
The large number of spread positions (332,329 contracts) reflects hedging or complex strategies. This group expects potential movement but is balancing risks.
________________________________________
3. Commercial Positions (Hedgers)
Long: 136,052 | Short: 412,893
Hedgers (like producers or processors) are heavily short, suggesting that they are locking in current prices to mitigate risk if gold prices fall. This aligns with bearish sentiment from the commercial side.
________________________________________
4. Changes in Positions
Non-Commercial: Slight decrease in long positions (-391 contracts), but a notable increase in short positions (+7,312 contracts). This suggests speculators are preparing for possible downside risks.
Commercial: Both long (-18,799) and short (-28,736) positions decreased. This may indicate some unwinding of hedging activity.
________________________________________
5. Percent of Open Interest
Non-commercial positions account for 38.1% long and 8.6% short, showing speculative dominance on the bullish side.
Commercial traders hold 48.5% short, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
________________________________________
6. Integration Into My Strategy
Bullish Sentiment (Non-Commercials):
Combine this with your BBMA analysis:
Check for EMA50 support and Middle BB interaction near key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8% or 50%).
Look for strong MA5/10 crossing validation for buy setups.
Bearish Sentiment (Commercials):
Use this as confirmation for sell setups at confluence zones:
Price rejection near EMA50 resistance or oversold conditions breaking downward through Middle BB.
Validate sentiment shifts with FS movement and high confluence.
Manage Volatility:
With open interest increasing, consider tighter stop-loss placements and trailing stops to protect against sudden reversals.
TF Daily
Outlook Bullish
- Current at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH)
- 3039.82 at potential daily support level
- Price has stop at mid bb level of FR 0.382
0.5: 3000.27
0.618: 2960.73 (strong support)
TFH4
Outlook bearish
- Current at 0.786 (3035.50) from swing 4 to 5
- Level 0.786 potential reversal from bullish to bearish for mid term
- FE reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg
0.382: Potential EMA Zone
0.5: Potential mid-bb + MAH Zone
TFH1
Outlook Bullish for H4 Retracement
Fibo Extension reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg from the ATH
CSE SELL form (3015.65) follow TPW SELL
- TFD at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH)
- 3039.82 at potential daily support level
HIGH RISK SELL SETUP
ENTRY POINT: FR 0.382 (3061.62)
STOP LOSS: ABOVE FR 0.786 (3110.85)
TAKE PROFIT: FR EXT 1.618 (2940.80)
TAYOR
XAUUSD COT DataNon-commercial traders hold 324,333 long positions vs 73,451 short positions, showing strong bullish sentiment.
Spreads: Significant spread positions (332,329 contracts) suggest hedging strategies, but the longs clearly dominate.
Let’s break down this COT data and identify actionable insights for your XAU/USD trading strategy.
Here's my interpretation:
________________________________________
1. Open Interest Analysis
Total open interest is 851,437 contracts, which reflects the market's overall participation. A change of 24,835 contracts from 03/25/25 suggests increased market activity and potential volatility.
This surge might indicate that traders are repositioning ahead of significant events, which could align with your BBMA setups.
________________________________________
2. Non-Commercial Positions (Speculators)
Long: 324,333 | Short: 73,451 | Spreads: 332,329
Speculators hold significantly more long positions compared to short positions, indicating bullish sentiment.
The large number of spread positions (332,329 contracts) reflects hedging or complex strategies. This group expects potential movement but is balancing risks.
________________________________________
3. Commercial Positions (Hedgers)
Long: 136,052 | Short: 412,893
Hedgers (like producers or processors) are heavily short, suggesting that they are locking in current prices to mitigate risk if gold prices fall. This aligns with bearish sentiment from the commercial side.
________________________________________
4. Changes in Positions
Non-Commercial: Slight decrease in long positions (-391 contracts), but a notable increase in short positions (+7,312 contracts). This suggests speculators are preparing for possible downside risks.
Commercial: Both long (-18,799) and short (-28,736) positions decreased. This may indicate some unwinding of hedging activity.
________________________________________
5. Percent of Open Interest
Non-commercial positions account for 38.1% long and 8.6% short, showing speculative dominance on the bullish side.
Commercial traders hold 48.5% short, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
________________________________________
6. Integration Into My Strategy
Bullish Sentiment (Non-Commercials):
Combine this with your BBMA analysis:
Check for EMA50 support and Middle BB interaction near key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8% or 50%).
Look for strong MA5/10 crossing validation for buy setups.
Bearish Sentiment (Commercials):
Use this as confirmation for sell setups at confluence zones:
Price rejection near EMA50 resistance or oversold conditions breaking downward through Middle BB.
Validate sentiment shifts with FS movement and high confluence.
Manage Volatility:
With open interest increasing, consider tighter stop-loss placements and trailing stops to protect against sudden reversals.
TF Daily
Outlook Bullish
- Current at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH)
- 3039.82 at potential daily support level
- Price has stop at mid bb level of FR 0.382
0.5: 3000.27
0.618: 2960.73 (strong support)
TFH4
Outlook bearish
- Current at 0.786 (3035.50) from swing 4 to 5
- Level 0.786 potential reversal from bullish to bearish for mid term
- FE reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg
0.382: Potential EMA Zone
0.5: Potential mid-bb + MAH Zone
TFH1
Outlook Bullish for H4 Retracement
Fibo Extension reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg from the ATH
CSE SELL form (3015.65) follow TPW SELL
- TFD at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH)
- 3039.82 at potential daily support level
HIGH RISK SELL SETUP
ENTRY POINT: FR 0.382 (3061.62)
STOP LOSS: ABOVE FR 0.786 (3110.85)
TAKE PROFIT: FR EXT 1.618 (2940.80)
TAYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.