XAU/USD 27-31 May 2024 Weekly Analysis
Weekly Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs.
Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure)
First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week the CHoCH was at the same level as the internal low.
Price continued bullish before pulling back which has moved the CHoCH closer to most recent price action.
This allows price to not pull back so deeply to print the very first indication, but not confirmation, of pullback initiation.
Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a CHoCH.
As mentioned 19 May 2024 that it is also reasonable to expect price to continue bullish, bringing ChOCH closer to the current price action to initiate pullback. price has done exactly that.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established.
As previously mentioned, most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which is an indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation.
As mentioned on 24 May 2024, price had wicked above Daily supply zone but was unable to close. This could indicate the possibility of a liquidity grab to drive price bearish to initiate pullback. This happened to be the case.
Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
However, we do have a daily demand zone close-by so price could potentially react from that POI.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 24 May 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS.
After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback.
As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation.
I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation.
Price is now in discount of 50% EQ and close to a H4 demand zone where price we expect to see a reaction. However, price has pulled back deeper mitigating the whole H4 demand zone and beyond. This could indicate that price was seeking liquidity to the extreme of the H4 demand zone.
Conversely, if price cannot sustain its bullish momentum, it may seek to mitigate the H4 demand zone below.
Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish to target weak internal high
Scenario two: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI below to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line.
H4 Chart:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs.
Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure)
First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week the CHoCH was at the same level as the internal low.
Price continued bullish before pulling back which has moved the CHoCH closer to most recent price action.
This allows price to not pull back so deeply to print the very first indication, but not confirmation, of pullback initiation.
Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a CHoCH.
As mentioned 19 May 2024 that it is also reasonable to expect price to continue bullish, bringing ChOCH closer to the current price action to initiate pullback. price has done exactly that.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established.
As previously mentioned, most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which is an indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation.
As mentioned on 24 May 2024, price had wicked above Daily supply zone but was unable to close. This could indicate the possibility of a liquidity grab to drive price bearish to initiate pullback. This happened to be the case.
Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
However, we do have a daily demand zone close-by so price could potentially react from that POI.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 24 May 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS.
After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback.
As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation.
I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation.
Price is now in discount of 50% EQ and close to a H4 demand zone where price we expect to see a reaction. However, price has pulled back deeper mitigating the whole H4 demand zone and beyond. This could indicate that price was seeking liquidity to the extreme of the H4 demand zone.
Conversely, if price cannot sustain its bullish momentum, it may seek to mitigate the H4 demand zone below.
Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish to target weak internal high
Scenario two: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI below to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line.
H4 Chart:
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