Gold's strength turns to weakness, what happens next
Gold prices rebounded to near $2,643 in the short term today as safe-haven buying intensified in the Middle East. Fed Jerome Powell has adopted a more hawkish tone on the economy and said if the economy performs as expected. He sees two more rate cuts of 25 basis points this year. The market quickly reacted by lowering expectations for more aggressive Fed easing, triggering some subsequent profit-taking in the non-yielding gold and sending prices lower. At the same time, the market is still pricing in the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, which, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has been positive for safe-haven precious metals. Traders are now looking to U.S. economic data, including the ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings releases, to get some traction ahead of other key macro data due early in the new month.
Gold trend analysis:
From the extremely strong gold last week to the weak gold this week, there is no unilateral state for the time being, but at least 2685 can be determined as the temporary peak price, so it is difficult to break the previous high probability of this cycle, and then it is necessary to see the impact of this week's data, small non-farm ADP, unemployment benefits, non-farm may change the temporary strength state. From a technical point of view, the golden day line two Yin, the 5-day line lost, the current 10-day line barely supported, short-term bears occupy the initiative; And last Friday fell below 2660-55 short-term strength divide after the intraday break 2645 position, yesterday Monday opened slightly higher 2664 will usher in a fall, the lowest to 2624 line, 2645-40 formation break. After two consecutive days of adjustment, the short term, the active advantage; Focus on whether it can further break the 2625-20 area, the downward break will gradually fall to 2600 and 2570-80, and then test the 2540-45 starting point. The upper pressure is obvious, the current attention is 2645-50 region, the top and bottom conversion position of the hourly map; Keep the bear below, break upward, the short line will surge higher, further attention to the 5-day line and 2665-70 area pressure. After two consecutive Yin, can continue to fall is the key!
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