XAUUSD
What other factors, besides the Ukraine ceasefire, could limit or accelerate the decline in gold prices?
Current price: 2936$
(23 ,February ,2025)
If a real ceasefire in Ukraine happens, gold (XAU/USD) will likely decline. Based on historical trends and expert analysis, here’s a rough estimate of how much gold could drop:
Potential Drop Levels for Gold (XAU/USD)
•Mild drop (Short-term pullback) → $2,850 – $2,900
•If the ceasefire is announced but market confidence remains uncertain, gold may only see a small decline.
•Moderate drop (Ceasefire seen as real and stable) → $2,750 – $2,800
•A stronger ceasefire agreement, with international backing, could push gold down further.
•This would be a 4-6% decline from current levels.
•Major drop (Peace deal confirmed, global risk stabilizes) → $2,600 – $2,700
•If the ceasefire turns into a full peace agreement, gold could drop by 8-12%, returning to mid-2023 levels.
•Extreme drop (Ceasefire + Strong U.S. Economy + Fed Hawkishness) → $2,400 – $2,500
•If the ceasefire is combined with strong U.S. economic data (lower inflation, strong job reports), gold could drop 15-18% from its current highs.
What Will Influence the Drop?
1.Strength of the Ceasefire – If it’s fragile or temporary, gold may not fall much.
2.Market Sentiment – If traders believe risks remain, gold will stay above $2,800.
3.U.S. Dollar & Bond Yields – If a ceasefire strengthens the dollar and Treasury yields rise, gold will drop further.
4.Central Bank Demand – If central banks (China, India, Russia) keep buying gold, it may not fall too much.
Conclusion
•Short-term drop: $2,850 – $2,900
•Stable ceasefire drop: $2,750 – $2,800
•Full peace agreement drop: $2,600 – $2,700
•Extreme case (peace + strong U.S. economy): $2,400 – $2,500
#Ukraine #russia #gold #ceasefire
Current price: 2936$
(23 ,February ,2025)
If a real ceasefire in Ukraine happens, gold (XAU/USD) will likely decline. Based on historical trends and expert analysis, here’s a rough estimate of how much gold could drop:
Potential Drop Levels for Gold (XAU/USD)
•Mild drop (Short-term pullback) → $2,850 – $2,900
•If the ceasefire is announced but market confidence remains uncertain, gold may only see a small decline.
•Moderate drop (Ceasefire seen as real and stable) → $2,750 – $2,800
•A stronger ceasefire agreement, with international backing, could push gold down further.
•This would be a 4-6% decline from current levels.
•Major drop (Peace deal confirmed, global risk stabilizes) → $2,600 – $2,700
•If the ceasefire turns into a full peace agreement, gold could drop by 8-12%, returning to mid-2023 levels.
•Extreme drop (Ceasefire + Strong U.S. Economy + Fed Hawkishness) → $2,400 – $2,500
•If the ceasefire is combined with strong U.S. economic data (lower inflation, strong job reports), gold could drop 15-18% from its current highs.
What Will Influence the Drop?
1.Strength of the Ceasefire – If it’s fragile or temporary, gold may not fall much.
2.Market Sentiment – If traders believe risks remain, gold will stay above $2,800.
3.U.S. Dollar & Bond Yields – If a ceasefire strengthens the dollar and Treasury yields rise, gold will drop further.
4.Central Bank Demand – If central banks (China, India, Russia) keep buying gold, it may not fall too much.
Conclusion
•Short-term drop: $2,850 – $2,900
•Stable ceasefire drop: $2,750 – $2,800
•Full peace agreement drop: $2,600 – $2,700
•Extreme case (peace + strong U.S. economy): $2,400 – $2,500
#Ukraine #russia #gold #ceasefire
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.