XAUUSD M30 Idea
Gold Prices Record High Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
- Gold reached an all-time high of $2,586 per ounce last week, rising over 3.25% as speculation grows about a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Traders are betting on a larger-than-expected cut, potentially 50 basis points, to stimulate the economy, which has been impacted by inflation concerns and global uncertainty. This surge marks gold’s strongest weekly gain since mid-August.
• Rate Cut Expectations Drive Gold’s Rally
- The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut has grown to 50%, up from just 14% earlier in the week.
- Speculation surrounding aggressive Fed action has boosted gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates make non yielding assets like gold more attractive.
• Support from U.S. Dollar, Bond Yields, and Global Easing
- Despite gold's rise, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight gain, while bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 2.1 basis points. Lower bond yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, further driving its appeal. Meanwhile, global monetary easing, including a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), and increased gold reserves by central banks, especially in emerging markets, have added to the metal's strength.
• Looking Ahead: — Gold’s Outlook
- All attention is now on the Fed’s upcoming meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected.
- The market anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction, though there’s a 49% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut. A larger cut could push gold prices above $2,600 per ounce. The Fed will also provide projections on future rate cuts, which could suggest further easing in 2024, supporting gold’s bullish trend.
- In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain strong, with the possibility of testing new highs depending on the Fed’s actions.
- If the central bank continues to ease monetary policy and inflation moderates, gold could remain a favored asset, particularly if bond yields remain low.
- Gold reached an all-time high of $2,586 per ounce last week, rising over 3.25% as speculation grows about a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Traders are betting on a larger-than-expected cut, potentially 50 basis points, to stimulate the economy, which has been impacted by inflation concerns and global uncertainty. This surge marks gold’s strongest weekly gain since mid-August.
• Rate Cut Expectations Drive Gold’s Rally
- The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut has grown to 50%, up from just 14% earlier in the week.
- Speculation surrounding aggressive Fed action has boosted gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates make non yielding assets like gold more attractive.
• Support from U.S. Dollar, Bond Yields, and Global Easing
- Despite gold's rise, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight gain, while bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 2.1 basis points. Lower bond yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, further driving its appeal. Meanwhile, global monetary easing, including a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), and increased gold reserves by central banks, especially in emerging markets, have added to the metal's strength.
• Looking Ahead: — Gold’s Outlook
- All attention is now on the Fed’s upcoming meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected.
- The market anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction, though there’s a 49% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut. A larger cut could push gold prices above $2,600 per ounce. The Fed will also provide projections on future rate cuts, which could suggest further easing in 2024, supporting gold’s bullish trend.
- In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain strong, with the possibility of testing new highs depending on the Fed’s actions.
- If the central bank continues to ease monetary policy and inflation moderates, gold could remain a favored asset, particularly if bond yields remain low.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.