New peak of $3,520! Six major events this week detonated gold prices, waiting for gold prices to hit
📌 Driving events
1. Geopolitical black swans fly frequently
The tariff war between China, the United States and Europe has escalated comprehensively. The United States has imposed a 104% tariff on China (involving rare earths, semiconductors and other fields), and the European Union has implemented a 21 billion euro retaliatory tariff. The World Bank predicts that global GDP growth may fall by 1.8%. The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. After the breakdown of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing gold to rise by more than 3% in a single day. Historical data shows that the average increase in gold during geopolitical crises can reach more than 20%.
2. The Federal Reserve may change its coach
US President Donald Trump once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, exacerbating concerns about the independence of the central bank, which has exacerbated uncertainty. Reports that the US government is exploring legal means to remove Powell will only deepen market uneasiness and enhance the attractiveness of gold as a tool to hedge policy and economic instability risks.
3. Global central bank gold purchases hit a record high
In 2024, global central bank gold reserves reached 4,974 tons, and China increased its holdings to 73.7 million ounces for 20 consecutive months (accounting for 4.9%). From January to April 2025, the central bank's net gold purchases exceeded 420 tons, accounting for more than 25% of the annual demand. After China's insurance funds enter the market, it is expected that 255 tons of new demand will be added each year.
4. Gold ETF funds are pouring in
In the first quarter, global gold ETF funds inflow exceeded US$5 billion, and SPDR's daily inflow reached 226.5 tons (a three-year high). The asset management scale of domestic gold ETFs exceeded 101 billion yuan, and the holdings increased to 138 tons. The holdings of post-00 investors surged by 300%.
5. Inflation and stagflation expectations are rising
The US CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, and the core PCE price index hit a 32-year high. The risk of economic "stagflation" strengthened the anti-inflation properties of gold. Citigroup's model shows that if inflation is higher than 3% for a long time, the probability of gold price breaking through $3,500 is over 60%.
6. Technical breakthrough triggers resonance
After spot gold broke through the key resistance level of $3,250, it triggered programmatic buying, and speculative long positions accounted for 67%. COMEX gold futures open interest surged 18%, and the premium of the main Shanghai gold contract expanded to 5 yuan/gram, reflecting the strong bullish sentiment in the market.
📊Comment Analysis
Geopolitical tensions, rising prices, trade tensions, gold prices benefit
💰Strategy Package
Long positions:
Actively participate at 3480-90 points, profit target above 3510-20 points
Short positions:
Actively participate at 3510-00 points, profit target below 3475-65 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
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"The Golden Key to Financial Freedom" welcome to join the free channel
t.me/+alDpuIRD9vU4MWQx
t.me/+alDpuIRD9vU4MWQx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.