The Path to Capitulation.

Updated

Targets :

63K BTC Cycle Top is Wave 3 of the MACRO BTC cycle
1.5 - 3 Year bear market
55K .718 retracement of entire bull run.
6.5K Bear Market bottom.

This is a MACRO chart and has many wave configurations in between wave counts so please do not assume what I have laid out will result in immediate movements to those points noted.

Using Elliot Wave Theory I have laid out my own for bitcoins eventual demise. The market makers do quite a good job of keeping everyone fooled, keep the masses bullish buying all the dips on the way down and turning them into bears the moment it finds a bottom pushing the traders to look for short entries at resistances.
We have been sold the dream of all becoming millionaires with 250K bitcoin this cycle throughout 2020 into 2021 along with the failure of the DXY ... sound to good to be true?
Even my own TD financial wealth manager believes the USD will continue falling... wont be much longer he will be managing any of my capital.

(Volume has been accounted for in the Wyckoff theory)

Now into my theory for what just happened and where were going.

From Bitcoins fall from 63K plenty of traders have been faked out, shaken out, liquidated wondering why no more up? The herd was looking for the next bottom grasping onto every 4HR support bar they could find, yelling the 20WMA would hold up, Bullish divergence, double bottoms, sideways for months, accumulation, Michael Saylor announcing buying the the tops just before they dump.. convincing the average person with the confirmation bias they so desired that there was nowhere to go but up as their account size dwindled.
All while blaming Elon Musk for a tweet and moving the market against them.

Then Bitcoin dropped below 30K :O ! Lose support go short they say... well.

This was enough to flip the masses to bearish after our initial A leg down has finished. Even a continuation pattern to the downside had a target of 23K right... that would be too easy and instead of giving a bounce at the May low of 30K it just tagged $1400 lower to 28,600. That was all that was needed to flip the sentiment to BEAR MARKET!!! Now we have the masses calling for 10K, 15K, 23K targets and to set bids as the market moves away from them. Every drop now will drive their confirmation bias to yes this time its going further down "See I told you !" only to find support and bounce up along this rising wedge with a target of 55K before an ABCDE sideways correction as it begins to turn the Bears into Bulls again as they see BTC finding support on the 200 D EMA. This will be the peak of the B WAVE and will result in the largest liquidation event in history.

This is purely psychological warfare on traders, retailers and Michael Saylor unless he is the one who is rug pulling the market and facing margin calls on his over leveraged position of everyone else's money and his children's toy collection to buy bitcoin.

If you can see it... congratulations. If you are biased and trapped in a position one way or another take a moment to step back, breathe and look at things from the opposite side.
Perspective is the best technical indicator you can have not in trading but in life.

Id like to give a shout out to the man who gave me a different perspective, I would consider an angel of sorts that happened to be revealed to me at just the right moment when I needed him the most. Like most angels that walk among us they are not shining icons, they are rough and ragged and they are here to judge your character on how you react to their message or image. Jesus was a damn hippie spreading love and healing and they took him out. I'm not a religious guy but a spiritual one, so you can understand my point.
@BitFink

Thank you for being humble and honest in your analysis, and brash to the haters. I've come to realize over the years that some may come to realize the wrong of their ways and some may not, I can live with that.

Note

We have breached Wave B which is fantastic for all the people who bought the July bottom. Congratulations!!
For me this was purely a play for the upcoming alt coin rally after BTC capitulation so I am quite happy to have been invalidated earlier than suspected.

I've been keeping an eye on the rising wedge were in for some time and it seems we just caught a bounce off the top of Wave B set back in May for obvious support and confirmation. The top of the wedge comes in around 72-75K, with the high trajectory of the wedge and RSI on the daily being close to overbought I feel its safe to assume a fall from those levels could quite possibly be the Top of the run for bitcoin.

Obviously I would welcome a 100k or 200K or 500K bitcoin as my positions were taken back in june/july, any further upside for bitcoin would benefit me greatly.

Good luck guys and gals!

Thanks for all the comments

Although many hope for 100K or 200K bitcoin I'm happy with the remaining alt coin rally and blow off.

The chart posted show

mikeClarke13

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