BitcoinShort
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 284)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “Liking the risk:reward on a stop entry at $3,299 with a stop loss at $3,551”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5
Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,216 | R: $3,327
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still supporting above the trendline
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0079%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down in confluence with trendline
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Fully bearish
Volume: Still waiting for next spike to be ~ 2X MA
Candlestick analysis: Lowest daily close of 2018
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan still roughly following 9 MA and Kijun in line with 33 MA.
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a r1 and the next candle quickly because a r2 < r1 | However we are also on a C13.
Visible Range: Still hasn’t tested high volume node at $2,850. Would that be able to provide support after we consolidated so closely above?
Price action: 24h: -4.1% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,693 | Bottom band at $3,058
Trendline: Bear channel
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $4,059
RSI: Sticking to 30, trying to decide where it will move next. Retest 50 or rest 15?
Stochastic: Looks like it is getting stuck at the bottom
Last Day Rule: $3,641 has held very nicely, failing to even get a setup day.
Summary: Watching $3,200 support very closely. When it looked like it was breaking down we got a sharp reversal for a darth maul type candle on the 1h. That is something I got very used to seeing at we tested $6,000 - $6,200 support. As soon as it looked like it was breaking down we would quickly reverse.
However, that candle failed to provide a bounce and now it looks like we are going for another $3,200 retest. If we test it three separate times today then I would be viewing as very likely to breakdown this time around.
If it doesn’t then I will be watching the trendline closely which waits at $3,375. Due to how bearish the MA’s are I am fully expecting that area to hold strong as resistance.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “Liking the risk:reward on a stop entry at $3,299 with a stop loss at $3,551”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5
Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,216 | R: $3,327
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still supporting above the trendline
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0079%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down in confluence with trendline
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Fully bearish
Volume: Still waiting for next spike to be ~ 2X MA
Candlestick analysis: Lowest daily close of 2018
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan still roughly following 9 MA and Kijun in line with 33 MA.
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a r1 and the next candle quickly because a r2 < r1 | However we are also on a C13.
Visible Range: Still hasn’t tested high volume node at $2,850. Would that be able to provide support after we consolidated so closely above?
Price action: 24h: -4.1% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,693 | Bottom band at $3,058
Trendline: Bear channel
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $4,059
RSI: Sticking to 30, trying to decide where it will move next. Retest 50 or rest 15?
Stochastic: Looks like it is getting stuck at the bottom
Last Day Rule: $3,641 has held very nicely, failing to even get a setup day.
Summary: Watching $3,200 support very closely. When it looked like it was breaking down we got a sharp reversal for a darth maul type candle on the 1h. That is something I got very used to seeing at we tested $6,000 - $6,200 support. As soon as it looked like it was breaking down we would quickly reverse.
However, that candle failed to provide a bounce and now it looks like we are going for another $3,200 retest. If we test it three separate times today then I would be viewing as very likely to breakdown this time around.
If it doesn’t then I will be watching the trendline closely which waits at $3,375. Due to how bearish the MA’s are I am fully expecting that area to hold strong as resistance.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.