Bitcoin Daily Update (day 232)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous [url=Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time
Previous analysis / position: Left a comment on October 18th’s post saying that I wouldn’t be able to do the daily update and that I was watching the 4h TD Sequential and Stochastic. Still felt good about short positions due to $6,400 holding as strong resistance / Short BTC:USD from $6,367 | Short USDT:USD from $0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,400 | R: $6,428
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to have created a lower high without re tested top of triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Broke through 4 but now pulling back below. Wait to see where it closes before considering it bullish
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bear
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Last few days have been well below MA
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Bearish spinning tops, today forming bullish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: Fell out of 4h cloud, but still has not gotten kumo twist or bearish TK Cross. 1h cloud shows a lot of resistance from $6,400 - $6,480
TD’ Sequential: 4h: G3 | 12h price flip
Visible Range: Showing strong resistance from $6,400 - $6,800
Price action: 24h: +0.57% | 2w: -2.72% | 1m: +0.5%
Bollinger Bands: Continuing to resist daily MA
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,670 | Phase 2 hyperwave = $6,000
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on all time frames
Stochastic: 4h starting to rally after calling a good buy. Daily is recrossing bearish after a double top
Summary: I entered based on the 12h red 2 below the red 1 in combination with the button top. Based on that entry I should be setting the stop loss above the 12h red 1 at ~$6,501. That is only 2% risk and there really isn’t reason to set it tighter than that.
After taking a number of losses I start to second guess my entries and stop losses. Sometimes I have an inclination to tighten the stops due to be afraid of losing and other times I have a tendency to really widen them due to being frustrating from getting whipsawed.
The last couple weeks have been a lot of the former. Instead of using the stop loss that the TD’ Sequential trading system outlines, I used an approach from Wyckoff.
He states something along the lines of: “When there is a breakout / breakdown of a trading range and the price quickly returns to the middle of the range then it was likely a fakeout”
I entered on the $6,400 breakdown and figured that a return to > $6,450 would indicate a fake breakdown which usually precedes a strong rally. So I set my stops at $6,451 on BTC’ and $204.2 for ETH. Fortunately the BTC’ stop didn’t trigger, unfortunately the ETH’ stop did and there was not the follow through that I was expected. As it stands now I was stopped out on the very top on a 1h wick (which was a green 9).
Trading successfully long term is much more about losing than it is about winning. Prolonged losing streaks will challenge your motivation, confidence, sanity, and finances. Risk management is only one piece of the puzzle. The other part is emotional control, and I could argue that is even more important.
You can tediously manage risk 99% of the time, but that won’t matter if you let your emotions get the best of you on the other 1%.
I have found two very important ways to help control my emotions after taking a string of losses. First I shut off the computer and take a day off. I go outside, socialize and gain some perspective. Then I come back re charged and ready to get back in the trenches.
Another thing that really helps is not adding to losing positions. It can be very tempting to add at a better price when a position moves against you. Controlling that urge will help to minimize losses and maximize wins. Furthermore it will cause less stress/anxiety when things are going your way.
Set the stop loss then forget about it!
In regards to my USDT:USD position, I feel comfortable holding onto that as long as BTC’ is rallying. If it starts dumping then I will look to exit that position.
I went to a bbq last night and today I am playing in a golf tournament. By this time tomorrow I expect to feel fully reinvigorated.
I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous [url=Bitcoin Bubble Comparison]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time
Previous analysis / position: Left a comment on October 18th’s post saying that I wouldn’t be able to do the daily update and that I was watching the 4h TD Sequential and Stochastic. Still felt good about short positions due to $6,400 holding as strong resistance / Short BTC:USD from $6,367 | Short USDT:USD from $0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,400 | R: $6,428
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to have created a lower high without re tested top of triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Broke through 4 but now pulling back below. Wait to see where it closes before considering it bullish
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bear
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Last few days have been well below MA
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Bearish spinning tops, today forming bullish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: Fell out of 4h cloud, but still has not gotten kumo twist or bearish TK Cross. 1h cloud shows a lot of resistance from $6,400 - $6,480
TD’ Sequential: 4h: G3 | 12h price flip
Visible Range: Showing strong resistance from $6,400 - $6,800
Price action: 24h: +0.57% | 2w: -2.72% | 1m: +0.5%
Bollinger Bands: Continuing to resist daily MA
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,670 | Phase 2 hyperwave = $6,000
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on all time frames
Stochastic: 4h starting to rally after calling a good buy. Daily is recrossing bearish after a double top
Summary: I entered based on the 12h red 2 below the red 1 in combination with the button top. Based on that entry I should be setting the stop loss above the 12h red 1 at ~$6,501. That is only 2% risk and there really isn’t reason to set it tighter than that.
After taking a number of losses I start to second guess my entries and stop losses. Sometimes I have an inclination to tighten the stops due to be afraid of losing and other times I have a tendency to really widen them due to being frustrating from getting whipsawed.
The last couple weeks have been a lot of the former. Instead of using the stop loss that the TD’ Sequential trading system outlines, I used an approach from Wyckoff.
He states something along the lines of: “When there is a breakout / breakdown of a trading range and the price quickly returns to the middle of the range then it was likely a fakeout”
I entered on the $6,400 breakdown and figured that a return to > $6,450 would indicate a fake breakdown which usually precedes a strong rally. So I set my stops at $6,451 on BTC’ and $204.2 for ETH. Fortunately the BTC’ stop didn’t trigger, unfortunately the ETH’ stop did and there was not the follow through that I was expected. As it stands now I was stopped out on the very top on a 1h wick (which was a green 9).
Trading successfully long term is much more about losing than it is about winning. Prolonged losing streaks will challenge your motivation, confidence, sanity, and finances. Risk management is only one piece of the puzzle. The other part is emotional control, and I could argue that is even more important.
You can tediously manage risk 99% of the time, but that won’t matter if you let your emotions get the best of you on the other 1%.
I have found two very important ways to help control my emotions after taking a string of losses. First I shut off the computer and take a day off. I go outside, socialize and gain some perspective. Then I come back re charged and ready to get back in the trenches.
Another thing that really helps is not adding to losing positions. It can be very tempting to add at a better price when a position moves against you. Controlling that urge will help to minimize losses and maximize wins. Furthermore it will cause less stress/anxiety when things are going your way.
Set the stop loss then forget about it!
In regards to my USDT:USD position, I feel comfortable holding onto that as long as BTC’ is rallying. If it starts dumping then I will look to exit that position.
I went to a bbq last night and today I am playing in a golf tournament. By this time tomorrow I expect to feel fully reinvigorated.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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