Bitcoin Daily Update (day 247)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “...everyone [is] foaming at the mouth after the daily candle closed +1.5%. That was an unimpressive move and it came on low volume” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order 0.97 to close
Patterns: Testing phase 2 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 - $6,380 | R: $6,400 - $6,427
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still falling toward support | TD’ shows two days left to the downside
Funding Rates: Longs will pay shorts 0.05% | This is what I am waiting to see...longs get very expensive and btcusdshorts’ at support
Short term trend (3 day MA): Cross above 8 & 34 with price below = neutral
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Starting to turn up, crossing 34 would be very important for bulls
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down, one of the main reasons I am a bear and look for shorts in this area
Overall trend: bearsih
Volume: If you thought yesterday’s volume was unimpressive then todays was even less so (below MA)
FIB’s: (Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man | 12h hanging man both right on the trend resistance
Ichimoku Cloud: Tried to re enter 12h cloud and failed
TD’ Sequential: 12h has a red 1 and 2 that were very close to being 7’s and 8’s. If they would have close a few dollar higher then this topped on a 24 hours ago.
Visible Range: Still below the point of control (POC)
Price action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -0.2% | 1m: -2.74%
Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested top band
Trendline: All eyes on the resistance from the bear trend. If we don’t breakthrough on high volume then I expect phase 2 to break down.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Last move didn’t break up fractal, making that move even less impressive
RSI: Watching to see if daily stays > 50
Stochastic: Daily still has room to the upside
Summary: That pump did not break the most recent up fractal, it came on low volume and we failed to even test the top of the daily Bollinger Band. Longs are getting expensive and BTCUSDSHORTS’ are falling towards support.
The daily candle also just closed a hanging man. In my mind it is highly likely that the bear trendline is going to hold as resistance and that is going to lead to a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline.
If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.
All of that being said I still think it is a little too early to re enter my short position. It looks like there is still plenty of support left from $6,360 - $6,380 and I am going to wait to see how the price reacts when/if we retest it.
Another 24 - 48 hours of consolidating inside a ~$50 range seems most likely from here. That should give us plenty of time to watch how the traditional markets react to the election.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “...everyone [is] foaming at the mouth after the daily candle closed +1.5%. That was an unimpressive move and it came on low volume” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order 0.97 to close
Patterns: Testing phase 2 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 - $6,380 | R: $6,400 - $6,427
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still falling toward support | TD’ shows two days left to the downside
Funding Rates: Longs will pay shorts 0.05% | This is what I am waiting to see...longs get very expensive and btcusdshorts’ at support
Short term trend (3 day MA): Cross above 8 & 34 with price below = neutral
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Starting to turn up, crossing 34 would be very important for bulls
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down, one of the main reasons I am a bear and look for shorts in this area
Overall trend: bearsih
Volume: If you thought yesterday’s volume was unimpressive then todays was even less so (below MA)
FIB’s: (Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man | 12h hanging man both right on the trend resistance
Ichimoku Cloud: Tried to re enter 12h cloud and failed
TD’ Sequential: 12h has a red 1 and 2 that were very close to being 7’s and 8’s. If they would have close a few dollar higher then this topped on a 24 hours ago.
Visible Range: Still below the point of control (POC)
Price action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -0.2% | 1m: -2.74%
Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested top band
Trendline: All eyes on the resistance from the bear trend. If we don’t breakthrough on high volume then I expect phase 2 to break down.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Last move didn’t break up fractal, making that move even less impressive
RSI: Watching to see if daily stays > 50
Stochastic: Daily still has room to the upside
Summary: That pump did not break the most recent up fractal, it came on low volume and we failed to even test the top of the daily Bollinger Band. Longs are getting expensive and BTCUSDSHORTS’ are falling towards support.
The daily candle also just closed a hanging man. In my mind it is highly likely that the bear trendline is going to hold as resistance and that is going to lead to a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline.
If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.
All of that being said I still think it is a little too early to re enter my short position. It looks like there is still plenty of support left from $6,360 - $6,380 and I am going to wait to see how the price reacts when/if we retest it.
Another 24 - 48 hours of consolidating inside a ~$50 range seems most likely from here. That should give us plenty of time to watch how the traditional markets react to the election.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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