We might be wrong with this one, but it seems likely. However, BTC likes to do the unthinkable so be very carefull.
Our bearish case for BTC touching $7.5k area is based on :
- Heavy resistance line from 2017.
- 61.8% Fibb Retracement (Golden Ratio) from 13k to 3k drop
- Huge supply area at around $10.000 (round number)
- Hype around halving event, where most retailers are buying on hope along with FOMO effect which provides huge liquidity for whales
- RSI overbought + divergences
- Volume dropping
We have a lot of confluence for shorting the pair and when a lot of people are being driven with FOMO and hope it's wise to go to the opposite direction of the crowd.
Once we break resistance from 2017 and confirm the breakout on weekly time frame with proper retest, we could be in for a real bull run to the new ATHs.
Our bearish case for BTC touching $7.5k area is based on :
- Heavy resistance line from 2017.
- 61.8% Fibb Retracement (Golden Ratio) from 13k to 3k drop
- Huge supply area at around $10.000 (round number)
- Hype around halving event, where most retailers are buying on hope along with FOMO effect which provides huge liquidity for whales
- RSI overbought + divergences
- Volume dropping
We have a lot of confluence for shorting the pair and when a lot of people are being driven with FOMO and hope it's wise to go to the opposite direction of the crowd.
Once we break resistance from 2017 and confirm the breakout on weekly time frame with proper retest, we could be in for a real bull run to the new ATHs.
Note
So last night we had a huge dump, and this is further confirming our claims. BTC historically had 30-50% corrections after several week long pumps. If we take a look at fibbs, 50% fibb is aligned almost perfectly with 30% correction and 78.6% fibb is aligned with 50% correction. Anywhere in between is a point of interest to buy back.
We took a look at TradingLite tool showing that there is a huge amount of buy orders between $6k and $5k so I wouldn't be surprised if we see those prices again.
In the end, this drop was simple, whales used hopium and FOMO for halving event, trapped tone of longs, shook out the market by dropping the price and liquidating everyone who longed above $9k. Now everyone who was not FOMOing at $9k is willing to enter long because they missed out, but seems that they will be wiped out as well.
Be cautious, I wouldn't add longs and try to catch the falling knife. Nevertheless, the drop just started, I am very confident that we will see lower prices.
Note
We had our impulse yesterday and now we are in this range. For me it seems like a continuation pattern with sideways PA, so I am watching price to break to the downside and make a push towards $7.800
We also have halving in couple of hours, so it can go either way, be cautious with false breakouts as well.
I can not tell where it will go, but I am pretty sure that many will be trapped.
Note
BTC retraced back over $9.000. Now it is facing strong supply level at around $9.300, which aligns with 61.8% Fibb. If we reject here and break our supportive trendline (RED), we could see one more push towards low $8k areas and potentially even lower.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.