Bootcoin

See related ideas for personal notes on bitcoin movement and why I feel like ~7400 is a possible entry and what an ideal entry looks like to me.

Hello. I am back. Apologies for the absence and lack of responses. I've been having some health issues recently but it's been clearing up. I hope to stay!

Note

Speculative % based analysis on micro movement
1% - profit taken, reversal
2% - Continuation soon
.25% - fake out
.50% - imminent reversal, target is within .50%-2%

Note

XBT+ETH funding (available in the BitMEX Funding ToolBox: tradingview.com/script/QfFUOeja-BitMEX-Funding-Toolbox-NeoButane/)
shows a much more accurate view of market bias.
Ask yourself these questions: Ethereum is an altcoin. What makes it so important? Is it because of its volume? Is it because it is the only alt coin with a quanto swap (and less fees and more voulume etc) on BitMEX?
Their proof of stake concept is not finalized yet. When it is, it will mean that hodling Ethereum will be free money. If that is the case, why aren't you buying spot Ethereum now and shorting the Ethereum deriatitve on Deribit or BitMEX? On Deribit, you even have the option to buy or sell long term options all the way to September.

Places with Eth swaps:

Note

bitmex.com/ - Funding details viewable on their contract
okex.com/ - Margin ratios viewable on their contract details; disconnecting from VPN may be required
deributt.com/ - Funding details updated realtime, open interest on options from now to September viewable

Note

Funding pop

Note

Definitely not a 'buy the dip' for me after this insane rip up. Reducing long, adding to underwater short at $274 and $279. Cutting short to be delta positive if it stops me out at $283. That would be uncool. Unsure of where to add/close on bitcoin, so it'd be better to be near delta neutral rather than make a poor decision.

Note

Funding should be in a perpetually expensive state for longs for myself to consider bull market. I'm scaling short side from 10-11k. I'm still bullish for the year but I don't think it would keep running without a significant pullback like bitcoin usually does.

My usual game plan for longing bitcoin:
1. Long, scale in short when profits get ridiculous (in this case I went neutral too early)
2. Take long profits when I start to feel comfortable. This lets me set a stop without losing profit for shorting
3. Use profits to long BTC paired altcoins
4. Take profits on historical levels for BTC paired altcoins. I really don't like holding altcoin BTC pairs unless it's the only pair available (for ex., BITBEAN)
5. Sit and wait for the next high timeframe bias to show up
6. Buy long term options with low delta

Note

Predestination 11k fib lines showing confluence with price action. If this is right, the prior screenshot is showing me a return to 7k or mid 6k (lol). Either way it rolls it should be okay to cut position sizes because I am expecting volatility.

Note

My final short orders are in the $11000-11100 region. I am expecting a liquidation wick on a $11000 break.

Will add on bearish retests. Zones where I am looking to add to a short are 10750 and 10850.

I am intentionally keeping my short orders small and preferring to add larger if it drops because it's going to be a major pain in the butt to have to stop out a short this high up...

Either way bitcoin goes, I am very happy with this volatility in both directions. >1% moves in 5 minutes are a far cry from the insane chop we used to have late last year. There is an incredible amount of opportunity for entries and the increased interest in bitcoin because of its rising price is a nice bonus (as well as just holding it, too). I hope the rest of you have been able to build up your port just from being involved in bitcoin this whole past year ^^

Note

lmao called it

Note

Conceding bearish bias until EOM

Note

Been sick as of late. New month feels bearish. Needs a close above 10800 to reconsider bias

NeoButane

My published indicators: tradingview.com/u/NeoButane/

Sorry if I haven't replied to your message yet, I'm a bit backlogged :)

Also on:

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

NeoButane

My published indicators: tradingview.com/u/NeoButane/

Sorry if I haven't replied to your message yet, I'm a bit backlogged :)

Also on: