Alright, so I'm actually confident enough with this play that I'll publish, and because my last one got reallyyyy long with all those updates for the day trading positions. Here are two set-ups for a long position up to $9500 and then a shorting position back down to our support line.
I think I've solved the wave count for this correction, we're forming this WXY correction while we are on the last 5-3-5 ABC corrective sharp pattern to complete that channel you see there.
I really don't think we go above that $9500 region before retracing. That is a super apex level. We have FOUR resistances there, from the small channel, to larger channel, to main downtrend resistance, to the 1.618 fib extension. This is a very likely scenario in my opinion as our Daily MACD is still pushing up, giving us momentum to go higher. But we must be careful, when this thing is ready to come down, it will come down.
I had thought we may have had the opportunity to already start the next downtrend, but we lost momentum. Then I spotted this wave count and it 100% makes sense. Does it mean its 100% right? Hell no hahaha. Dude counting these waves was already hard enough. But we will use very very tight stop losses, because the smallest moves in the other direction can lead to a major reversal. Which makes the risk to reward of this situation even more attractive.
I've already entered on my long position here. As I see enough evidence on this move without pure 100% confirmation. But, it is wise for you all to wait for that confirmation to reduce your risk. Good luck everyone!
This is not financial advice. I do not tell when to buy and sell, these posts are only for educational purposes and are simply strategies of my own. They are LIKELY to change over time.
I think I've solved the wave count for this correction, we're forming this WXY correction while we are on the last 5-3-5 ABC corrective sharp pattern to complete that channel you see there.
I really don't think we go above that $9500 region before retracing. That is a super apex level. We have FOUR resistances there, from the small channel, to larger channel, to main downtrend resistance, to the 1.618 fib extension. This is a very likely scenario in my opinion as our Daily MACD is still pushing up, giving us momentum to go higher. But we must be careful, when this thing is ready to come down, it will come down.
I had thought we may have had the opportunity to already start the next downtrend, but we lost momentum. Then I spotted this wave count and it 100% makes sense. Does it mean its 100% right? Hell no hahaha. Dude counting these waves was already hard enough. But we will use very very tight stop losses, because the smallest moves in the other direction can lead to a major reversal. Which makes the risk to reward of this situation even more attractive.
I've already entered on my long position here. As I see enough evidence on this move without pure 100% confirmation. But, it is wise for you all to wait for that confirmation to reduce your risk. Good luck everyone!
This is not financial advice. I do not tell when to buy and sell, these posts are only for educational purposes and are simply strategies of my own. They are LIKELY to change over time.
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Here is my bullish scenario. You don't see many wave counts like this, but we're finding support in this channel, as it appears to be a leading first wave. And because it's still a part of the correction, you would count it as AB AB rather than 1-2 1-2. Following that, I'm sure we will get a sharp ABC, as this is now flat. But it is hard to gauge the targets for now. I'll update after we get more info.
RIght now is a critical moment. If we break support there is a chance that we head down on a reversal!
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WARNING!! Alternate count!! Guys we really should have been making more moves by now than this. I have this very very weird gut feeling. Here is an alternate count if we fall from here. Please be careful! Always consider alternate routes!
Order cancelled
HOLY CRAP!!! Guys, look at the similarities between these two drops!!!
I think this is the correct count!! My long positions are all closed!! Please be careful. This was my gut feeling. TIME TO PANIC.
Lol no just kidding don't panic. But please be aware that this is a likely scenario to occur. So we are going to consider both of these options, this scenario, and the original. And we are going to WAIT like hawks on confirmation. Please be careful guys.
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Check out this volume trend.
Someone earlier today mentioned to me the volume was a concern. Shout out to you.
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That run is what we were missing lol. There's our confirmation! Original scenario is coming very true! Here's the rest of the set up!
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On our way to $9500 Now!Note
False alarm, we stopped within an ascending triangle, we should follow suit of previous update.Note
Here is what I mean, we need 5 touches to complete the 5 wave ending diagonal on an ascending wedge. I'm still sticking to this wave count, in terms of this being a part of the correction. There IS a chance that after we retrace from $9500, we get another wave to a higher degree, but as of now, we will just wait and see.
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Alright guys, It hasn't retraced much at all, and I think we may be gearing up for our next run, north of $9500, maybe even $9700. A throw-over followed by a big retrace is likely here. Be careful! And wait for entries upon break outs!
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There it is guys. 10 minutes after the update haha! BOOMNote
Reached a high of 9470. Entering now is still pretty risky. Its fighting resistance and failing.Note
Guys, you know what I just realized, look at the bottom of wave a. Right where it is now, this is a MAJOR resistance for this current motive now. If we break it, then we can meet those targets, but the 15 min and 30 minute time lines are showing bearish candle formations... We'll see what happens.
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BOOM!!! Congrats if you got in on this play!!
I spot an ascending wedge here. Elliot wave count doesn't necessarily confirm this, so it can go higher, but I'm shorting now. I think I've counted a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, which could mean that these are impulse waves, but I'm not buying it just yet. My stop loss is at the red line, and my first two targets are marked at the green line. I hope you all have been profitable during this run, but I think I have to call the top. Remember, it can still go higher, that's why my stop loss is pretty generous.
30 minute, 3 hour, and 4 hours are showing room to go higher, and so is the daily chart, so we have to be careful. But this drop after this wave finishes will not be pretty.
Good luck!
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looks like an extended 5th! May go as high as $9800Note
Holy freaking crap guys, bitcoin is crazy as hell. I'm going to use impulse wave counts here just so it makes sense. But wave 3 is done. HOWEVER, we can get an expanded flat correction where our B leads us up to the top resistance and 1.618 level at 10200 or so. IF we break this current resistance line, then that is the likely scenario. IF, we don't break the resistance and fall from this very small support, then we can channel on downwards. I think we can eventually push up to $11000, but be very very careful. Trading long at these levels is almost like trading against yourself, anything can happen.
The wave count is so obscure that at any point these things can fail and we can continue our correction to sub $7k again, so please please please be careful. But this is my layout for what we could possible see in the future. TWO scenarios here. It's currently in a bullish pennant so I think it can break up!
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Here is an up close look. This B wave is one of the most high risk trades you can play. I would only jump in on a break of $9,900 and take profit near 10k. It is very likely we get rejected. But I expect another push through it and a jump to upwards of 10k, around the $10,200 area.
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Boom! First target hit! Looks like we are going to get an extended 5th and stretch up higher. Continue to be cautious!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.