First of all, sorry for no updates today, my service is acting weird and I wasn't able to upload this post. ANWAYS, nearly everyone was calling for the $7300 drop. But is that it? I can't lie, I was really bullish after we jumped from that point, and I thought it was going to be time to reverse. And hell, it might be! But we've got an issue on our hands here. There's a lot to cover in this thread, so sit tight, and grab your popcorn. And lets watch this market go to work...
The Chart (12 Hr):
So my wave count of an WXYXZ is in the formation of 3-5-3-5-3, which can be considered a bullish pattern with failed breakouts. Meaning that it should eventually come to an end. BUT, sometimes, its REALLY Bearish. And it means that we keep trying to breakout, and fail and fail and fail again until nobody wants to try anymore.
Now, lets look at this last portion of this possible descending wedge (WHICH ARE VERY BULLISH FORMATIONS), I'm noticing a 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal that can only either happen on the 1st or 5th wave, (never the 3rd). We'll, If this is wave Z (GREEN; or you could even call it E), then that would be considered the 5th. Now, let's think about E waves. They usually overshoot the target, or fall very short of the target. Well, if we look at this overall downtrend, it looks like a bullish flag, and people would probably target the bottom support of the flag for the E wave. And that would be around $3k or lower.
I don't think it's going to overshoot that, not nearly. BUT, what I do think; is that it falls short, and we have this 3-3-3-3-3 pattern to back that up.
Indicators:
Stoch RSI- The Stoch RSI jumped up WAY faster than it should have. And if you take a look at my indicator, it REALLY shows this wave (ABCDE) pattern justly, where even the subwaves are clearly labeled. But we're just about overbought here, along with EVERY indicator under the 12 hour on the stoch.
MEANING, we need another correction soon.
RSI- Look at the most recent high of the 12 hour chart on RSI. We can use that as a resistance level. Combining that with Stoch RSI and how it shows to be overbought with little movement of the RSI near the resistance level.
Volume - Volume shows that the market is REALLY interested in this level, because it is in the area of our last double bottom, people are expecting some type of reversal here. The recent drop wasn't as crazy as wave Y's, and we're looking to add a little bullishness in our movements. We are kind of rounding this out, and that's GOOD. It's hard for a market to fully rebound RIGHT after a sharp drop.
Market Cap - The market cap remaining pretty low with an increase in the amount of BTC traded. It's really just traders going against traders (hence the volume). Not much new money is flowing into the market. Because the FOMOERS who bought at the freaking top of this thing are already out, and are waiting for Mainstream media to kick it off before they lose more money.
EMAS: Yeah.. We're in trouble. But let me update more on EMAs in the next update.
Things to Consider: There are other possible wave counts! So this is just an alternate that we should consider. This small uptrend does NOT have to end here. It can extend to as high as $8800 in my opinion. Make sure to check my updates, I will talk about other timeframes that I've been looking at for a while.
What Will make me Bullish Again: I'm bearish for now guys, I'm not proven of an actual uptrend, and I won't be until we break $9300 in the next few days.
This won't probably be a day trading thread that I usually do, but one that analyzes higher time frames. I've been analyzing the higher time frames for a while, and I want you all to take a look at what I'm seeing. I've been accused of only making trades based on smaller time frames hahahahaha. NO. I look at everything, I just don't post it all, cause I update enough as it is... SO. Let's move on. I've got a few things to show you all to consider ;).
The Chart (12 Hr):
So my wave count of an WXYXZ is in the formation of 3-5-3-5-3, which can be considered a bullish pattern with failed breakouts. Meaning that it should eventually come to an end. BUT, sometimes, its REALLY Bearish. And it means that we keep trying to breakout, and fail and fail and fail again until nobody wants to try anymore.
Now, lets look at this last portion of this possible descending wedge (WHICH ARE VERY BULLISH FORMATIONS), I'm noticing a 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal that can only either happen on the 1st or 5th wave, (never the 3rd). We'll, If this is wave Z (GREEN; or you could even call it E), then that would be considered the 5th. Now, let's think about E waves. They usually overshoot the target, or fall very short of the target. Well, if we look at this overall downtrend, it looks like a bullish flag, and people would probably target the bottom support of the flag for the E wave. And that would be around $3k or lower.
I don't think it's going to overshoot that, not nearly. BUT, what I do think; is that it falls short, and we have this 3-3-3-3-3 pattern to back that up.
Indicators:
Stoch RSI- The Stoch RSI jumped up WAY faster than it should have. And if you take a look at my indicator, it REALLY shows this wave (ABCDE) pattern justly, where even the subwaves are clearly labeled. But we're just about overbought here, along with EVERY indicator under the 12 hour on the stoch.
MEANING, we need another correction soon.
RSI- Look at the most recent high of the 12 hour chart on RSI. We can use that as a resistance level. Combining that with Stoch RSI and how it shows to be overbought with little movement of the RSI near the resistance level.
Volume - Volume shows that the market is REALLY interested in this level, because it is in the area of our last double bottom, people are expecting some type of reversal here. The recent drop wasn't as crazy as wave Y's, and we're looking to add a little bullishness in our movements. We are kind of rounding this out, and that's GOOD. It's hard for a market to fully rebound RIGHT after a sharp drop.
Market Cap - The market cap remaining pretty low with an increase in the amount of BTC traded. It's really just traders going against traders (hence the volume). Not much new money is flowing into the market. Because the FOMOERS who bought at the freaking top of this thing are already out, and are waiting for Mainstream media to kick it off before they lose more money.
EMAS: Yeah.. We're in trouble. But let me update more on EMAs in the next update.
Things to Consider: There are other possible wave counts! So this is just an alternate that we should consider. This small uptrend does NOT have to end here. It can extend to as high as $8800 in my opinion. Make sure to check my updates, I will talk about other timeframes that I've been looking at for a while.
What Will make me Bullish Again: I'm bearish for now guys, I'm not proven of an actual uptrend, and I won't be until we break $9300 in the next few days.
This won't probably be a day trading thread that I usually do, but one that analyzes higher time frames. I've been analyzing the higher time frames for a while, and I want you all to take a look at what I'm seeing. I've been accused of only making trades based on smaller time frames hahahahaha. NO. I look at everything, I just don't post it all, cause I update enough as it is... SO. Let's move on. I've got a few things to show you all to consider ;).
Note
Look at the EMAs guys... TONS of resistances. This is the DAILY Chart. WE FREAKING GOT THE DEATH CROSS.
Let me tell you WHAT WE DONT WANT TO HAPPEN.
We CANNOT stay under this thing for too long. If we fall down and the 55 EMA begins to fan out away, I'd get really scared for the long-term health of this market. I'm saying we need to get up there are break out SOON. I can see bullishness begin to build up in the market, but it's not enough for now. We've got to GO.
We're fighting off the 200 DAY EMA as well. We've fallen from that support, and now its serving as resistance. Again, we need some strength to break through that!
Take a look at RSI! See something cool? POSSIBLE descending wedge!
Look at the MACD! The daily wants to cross... BUT, it's still pretty oversold with the signal line. That gives me some worries there a little bit. The bearish divergences on the Daily can lead us to this last low here (hopefully).
That's it for the Daily. Where it's literally saying: "Hey, if you want to, we can turn this thing around... OR else I'm going to stick an iron rod up all of your asses"
Note
I also want to say that the title isn't very fitting. I mean "nothing" as in the short-term. But A LOT for the long-term. So sorry for that.
BUT, let's talk about the weekly.
When I look at the weekly, all I think of is SUPPORT. Hella support guys. If you are unfamiliar with the word "hella" it is a term my black friends and I use to say "A LOT." I'd figure as we take this journey of Bitcoin, I'd give you all black slang terms. If we're in it together, I'd like to make you all a part of my hood.
lol... I'm just hoein" y'all.
"Hoein'" - Pronunciation: Hoe-in - Definition: To mess with someone in a playful manner.
I might be a little unprofessional. But I'm here for fun and the GAINZ. You all are probably thinking right now "hey, should I listen to this guy anymore?"
..Probably not. More updates to come!
Note
3 hour chart!
Look. When I say nearly all indicators under 12 hours show the stoch RSI as overbought. I MEAN IT. Check them guys. 1-12 hour Stoch RSIs. When everything under the 1 hour Stoch becomes overbought, it will be a slippery slope and another hard downfall.
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30 Min Chart. I'm not making a trade in here, because I really think there is potential for it to go a bit higher, but it is unsure right now. Next post will show why and how this is a big resistance level.
Note
Here are the resistance levels and why they are so. Notice that we have a lot of support with the EMAs... It either means that we're consolidating too long at a high level and NEED to come down. OR, we're very bullish and are going to STAY bullish for a while. We need to be careful.
Next up, the wave count that truly think the smaller time frame is on based on this TA.
Note
Last up for the night. This may not make sense to you all. But it definitely makes sense to me. In the past few months, I've been working a lot with Bitcoin and it's corrective wave patterns, and it looks like what it usually does when we are still in a correction. We get a very strong A wave. Then wave C is very short and becomes weaker on RSI. It consolidates for a while (ESPECIALLY before a big drop) and then BOOM.
So, what am I recommending? Just stay out. Wait on confirmation. Let the market show you what's going on and wait for this major resistances to be broken. RR setups exactly right NOW probably aren't the best. So just wait for a clear direction. We're currently moving sideways. I've taken profit off of the uptrend. It's just too risky to go long right now. You are fighting yourself if you do so.
Note
So this uptrend still has juice in the stoch. Remember when I said we pretty much need all Stoch RSIs on every time frame til the 12 hour to start the downtrend?
The 2 hour is now oversold. We should likely get a rally out of this bullish pennant to the $8900 dollar level. That is our .382 retrace from the bottom of C to the Top of B. AND the .382 retrace of the entire structure (past month). I would not enter a trade here. It's just too risky.. I will let the market handle itself before making a trade, (other than quick scalps). HODL'ers, you are probably fine.
Note
There it is guys. $8900. BUT, I think it's possible that we extend to as high as $9000 or a little bit higher. We are reaching a major resistance zone.
Check this trick out. If you find a bottom support line joined by two points, take a copy of that line and place it on top of the previous high, then use that as a target. That's exactly where I place my short order (after I doubled checked indicators), and surely enough it was filled.
So right here, what is most important are the resistances. Corrective waves tend to travel to resistance especially when they match with fib extensions and retraces. We've had a lot of "failed 5th waves," which in my opinion are just C or E waves with ABC substructures. I'm pretty confident that another big dump is coming, it's just all about "when."
So, that being said, we can possibly fail to get this (WHITE) E wave up to $9k, and just fall down. The only reason I think we can continue to go up is based on the MACD of the 2 hour with confluence of the 12 hour. I will try to formulate a bullish count so that this is not completely a bearish bias. But it will be hard.
Note
Note
The rising wedge is played out! So, here is the new criteria that will will change my view on the market. Please keep these price action points in mind. We are gaining a lot of momentum with, lower indicators are resetting on corrections that don't retrace far at all. If we fall from this support line, then I will continue to be bearish. However, if we find support at a normal fib level and break this last high, then I'm flipping to bullish (with a hard test at $9300.
Note
Every Stoch RSI between the 30 min and the 12 Hour charts are now overbought. Excited to see what happens here. BTC is a wild one.Note
BULLS ARE SQUEEZING! I expect a possible run here again before we fall. BUT WE WILL FALL. If we fall through the green zone, then I'd be close to saying hello to $7k again.
Note
We found channel support there on that last drop. If we don't fall from it, then we could see a scenario that looks something like this. We are within a bigger channel right now. But I still expect us to touch the $7k support once again.
Note
Hope all is well with you guys. I'm expecting to hang around this level for a while before we drop back down, I don't have 5 waves counted yet. It's possible that this is an ABC corrective pattern down and we should see another jump upwards, OR that this is a 1-2-3-4-5 and we are on a continuation to go down. But I do not believe this quick rally will sustain before we get another low below $7600. Each white line on here serves as a resistance so far. We just stopped at channel resistance.
Note
Two scenarios here. We just stopped at this hard resistance of what I believe to be a 12345/ABCDE formation of a 5th wave ending diagonal indicated by the orange lines. That's what I'm looking for the most. If we can break from this, then I believe we go on a crazy bull run towards our goal of $18k. BUT, if we break from the yellow resistance line and shoot above $8300 then we can go as high as $9k. BUT, that to me is not the best case scenario. We would likely be rejected and head further down to our weekly support line. We have a ton of support around the lower $7k region, and if we break below that point, then guys I do not like the possibilities. I'm looking for this possibility here, just waiting on more confirmation. If we continue to struggle at this support, then I will likely short. But a break through of $8300 and I will go long for a decent swing position.
Note
I want you all to consider these two set ups. We're finding major support and a slow down to this bear run. I don't think we see sub $7.6k, and I'm looking to possible add long positions there.
Like said before, a breakout above $8,300 will validate a bullish run to the next resistance line at least. The first scenario is buying on that confirmation, which entails a higher probability trade with lower risk. The second scenario is riskier, but would result in a very large gain. Im looking to buy in on the riskier trade. The buy orders are increasing in this area. There is major support, and my wave count could validate a jump, IF we don't get an extended e wave. Good luck!
Note
1-3hr stoch RSIs are calling for another small downtrend. If we break $7700, consider this as an alternate count. We aren't in the clear yet.
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All going exactly as planned. One more short downtrend and then we should break up very nicely.
Note
That last drop was far too bearish. Looking to see how this trades over the next few hours. A possible scenario is $6kNote
Because we broke that green support. We have to start looking at this channel support line again. $5-6k seems much more likely. It just depends on how we get there. I believe we find support at $5.8-6k. But if it breaks, then we need to start thinking of possible support at the $5k range. What do I recommend? Just stay out. Sometimes the best position, is no position at all. If you can't short, then take a break for the next few days. The market isn't going anywhere. And it won't hurt to miss out on a little opportunity. The only thing that will hurt you is to try and go long in shaky floors.
Note
I want to make it clear that the most recent update is an alternate. And that the original post is still a valid count. Either can work here.Note
BTC is looking horrific. As is the rest of the market. I think we hit $6k soon. Within the next 2 days. After that we should hit a very nice bounce. The question is if we break through those 2 major resistances. If we can manage to do that, then SOMEHOW we could get ourselves in a crazy rally.
Lets remember:
- A target of $6k would indicate a double bottom, a very strong reversal signal. The last time it hit $6k we spiked like crazy. If we don't get that V formation. Then don't expect that big reversal.
- We still have yet to hit our next white support line, we haven't done that yet. And another 2 waves down we can manage to do that and bounce.
- We're working on 5 waves to complete for this C wave, which could indicate the reversal
- The bearish view would be that this is a WXY correction. AND AFTER we bounce from 6k, we have a WHOLE NOTHER 5 waves down. Really bearish, but would take us to $5k.
When the time comes, I'll have a setup for you bulls who are very bored. As more data streams in, we can be more safe with higher probability trades on long positions. Indicators are so bearish that to me, I think we need to go down again after we hit 6k just to show bullish divergence. It will be a hard bounce if we manage to break through resistances from these indicator levels. Good luck!
Note
Just waiting for the 1 hr MACD to crossover so we can start this downtrend to $6k. What are you guys up to?
Another note: I freaking opened a short WAY too early and forgot to set a breakeven stop loss. Missed 2 chances to close the short and re-open at a higher price. I'm down $500 so far. Will keep you all updated on how big my loss gets until we start profiting hahaha. But that's really how much faith I have in another low here. This short hasn't gone anywhere in the past day.
Note
We test this same support 3 times already. A break down below the support line seems likely. If, somehow we break north of this triangle, then we can rally to as high as $7230. Below is each support zone. A break below support 2 and we head to $6k.
I'm going to sleep. Short is left open with stop loss at $7k.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.