ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.05
A quick update to the DXY chart which is essentially intended to cast some light over G10 FX as we prepare for NFP.
In order to understand the dangers of pursuing a weaker dollar too energetically, we shall in what follows begin to point out the inner wave flows in which short-term moves become indicated. The process of short-term swing trading is automatic for macro players, having a clear understanding of the direction and which side occupies control ensures us of control over individual strategically important swings and the apparently desirable opportunities where retail begin to go overboard will become clear places for us to do profit taking and trap them in the opposite directions. Lets review a sketch of the Middle and Long game with Dollar:
Clearly sellers wish to occupy the flow, in order to deliver an impulsive wave to the +/- 75 targets; but if they try moving too far too soon they will exhaust and allow buyers to prevent the attack. So, sellers will play the macro swing in incremental waves ... 1 ... 2... 3... 4... 5... The correct sequence is to play both the impulse and retrace exchange, and, in the current case, we are reaching the main impulse target so its time to leave late sellers no room to protect with NFP because they have to cover.
For the Technical NFP flows:
Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x <=> Soft Support 96.7x (we are currently here) <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x
When major forces on both sides come under attack, it comes down to a sort of exchange / expansion in vol which we shall call: "Sellers trying to sell their lives for the highest price possible". Anyone with the slightest TA knowledge can tell sellers are gunning for the lows, they want to condemn bulls to death, it appears understandable given the domestic US issues on social and political unrest to want to sell your life for as much as possible. Imagine for a moment you are soldier, down to your last clip and you are surrounded... You would need to take as many enemies out as possible so you will pick your moments. Smart sellers will defend in the most important areas!
Coverage resuming as usual here after ridethepig returns back to London...Thanks as usual for keeping support coming with the likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
In order to understand the dangers of pursuing a weaker dollar too energetically, we shall in what follows begin to point out the inner wave flows in which short-term moves become indicated. The process of short-term swing trading is automatic for macro players, having a clear understanding of the direction and which side occupies control ensures us of control over individual strategically important swings and the apparently desirable opportunities where retail begin to go overboard will become clear places for us to do profit taking and trap them in the opposite directions. Lets review a sketch of the Middle and Long game with Dollar:
Clearly sellers wish to occupy the flow, in order to deliver an impulsive wave to the +/- 75 targets; but if they try moving too far too soon they will exhaust and allow buyers to prevent the attack. So, sellers will play the macro swing in incremental waves ... 1 ... 2... 3... 4... 5... The correct sequence is to play both the impulse and retrace exchange, and, in the current case, we are reaching the main impulse target so its time to leave late sellers no room to protect with NFP because they have to cover.
For the Technical NFP flows:
Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x <=> Soft Support 96.7x (we are currently here) <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x
When major forces on both sides come under attack, it comes down to a sort of exchange / expansion in vol which we shall call: "Sellers trying to sell their lives for the highest price possible". Anyone with the slightest TA knowledge can tell sellers are gunning for the lows, they want to condemn bulls to death, it appears understandable given the domestic US issues on social and political unrest to want to sell your life for as much as possible. Imagine for a moment you are soldier, down to your last clip and you are surrounded... You would need to take as many enemies out as possible so you will pick your moments. Smart sellers will defend in the most important areas!
Coverage resuming as usual here after ridethepig returns back to London...Thanks as usual for keeping support coming with the likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
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