Updated

Big Moment for BTC - 2 Scenarios

Hopefully you all caught the bullish divergences forming on ALL RSI's before that big jump there. We didn't reach the $6k target like I had expected. But it doesn't mean that this is over. I kind of find it funny that on my last post I stated that it would go to $6500 and bounce, then I changed my analysis to $6k. And guess what it did? Went to $6500 and bounced. BTC -1.82% is looking very bullish , and in perfect condition for a nice rally. Stoch , RSI and MACD are all showing likelyhood for this bounce to continue to atleast above $7k.

I wouldn't get too excited yet, but I must say that we have 2 scenarios forming here. That if we can break $7300, then we will start to get a little optimistic on our counts, with the possibility of these being impulse waves. Time will tell with that, and as more information comes in, we will see what we are dealing with.

If we can happen to strike through $9100, then I'd get REALLY excited. We could confirm an ABC 3-3-5 Flat count where we finally rally after this Z wave and double bottom .

Let's take a look at the image on the right. Here we have the scenario of this being a WXY formation, where we get TWO ABC corrective patterns and head to 5k. Which is still very possible.
NOTE: A break of $7300 does NOT mean that scenario 2 is out of the window. BUT, a break of $9160 does!

I tried not to make a post today, but this is pretty important stuff, right?
Happy Resurrection Sunday! Hope all is going well for you all. Happy trading!

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Always trying to stay as neutral as possible will give you the greatest amount of readiness for the "unexpected". We still don't have a bullish divergence on RSI on the 1 hour chart. A break above $6980 would invalidate this count. But we are showing major signs of rejection so far. $6k isn't out the window just yet and we aren't in the clear. But all counts are possible. Time will tell which one is true.

There was really no true reason for that spike, more so trading bots reacting to their algorithms. As a day trader, you can out trade a trading bot, because intuition is something that they can't develop. Be careful here on entry for long positions.

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This is what I mean by be cautious.

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Here is everything that I'm thinking of on the 1 hr chart. It doesn't make the most sense to me in terms of wave count, but dammit I think this thing wants to go lower again!

I will update shortly with the 10 minute timeframe because there is something I want to show you all.

When I finish school this April, I will do a BUTTLOAD of educational posts for you all. My objective is to help you all formulate opinions for yourselves and what you think the market is going to do. And that entails understanding everything I'm referring to in these charts. If you've noticed, i've began to stop activating trades and even posting entry targets. BTC is a wild beast on lower time frames. I enter a LOT of trades per day on BTC because I focus on hitting peaks and valleys, which take a lot of trial and error, patience, and proper indicator reading. But as a TA, you must always find any alternate path that you can find. You never want to be surprised from what goes on in the charts. And sometimes, you truly don't. A viable answer IS in fact up, down or sideways hahaha. But to be a good trader, it's all about managing risk and adapting. I've said this HUNDREDS of times. But I want to keep re-iterating.

First: Master swing trading before you day trade. And master day trading before you scalp.
Swing trading always easier, but you always need to monitor the charts just as much, because things can change fast. That's why I day trade (and scalp), because I LOVE reading charts, and i HATE leaving money in this market hahaha.

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Notice how on the 10 minute time frame we see all of these bearish signals at the top and it breaks down. We going to try to hit that resistance again and we're going to fail and head lower. Keep eyes open!

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Here's what I'm thinking on the DAILY chart. Bulls need to keep control, if they don't - then this can get nasty. Personally, I think they hold their ground. Tomorrow probably won't look great in terms of the lower side. But I expect a lot of rejection and a bull run in 1-2 days.

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Head and Shoulders is about to form. A break of $6745 will trigger a bear rally down to $6350-6400. I'd expect a big bounce there. If we break below $6300, then I'd expect a vicious sell of to $6k. So either stick to stop losses or buy in on reversal confirmation

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We see a bullish break here. I left out of a short because I noticed the 30 min stoch was oversold. But do we break $7k? If we manage to do so, I think we could test the previous resistance at $7200.

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I want to note that this bullish break is a very bad thing for the bulls. Let me explain why. We bounced off of air on the previous low and never gained bullish divergence on the 1hr chart. We clearly formed and ABC pattern, where there is no indication of valid impulse wave counts. We just stopped at a very bearish .276 fib retrace. We're are already showing signs of rejection. Stoch RSIs between 1-6 hours are already overbought. BB bands in the 3 hour chart are about to squeeze. A squeeze on the BB bands indicate a breakout. With bearish inclination, we can assume a break to the south is likely. Taking my time with analyzing this, and maybe we continue to push up to $7200-$7300, but only savior the moment for a little while guys. This could be a major poop sign.

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Yup, I entered another short. Are you kidding me BTC? It's literally trading bots just algorithmically trading. I don't mind it, because it definitely increases the volatility. But guys, this looks like its about to go down again right? Not sure what the overall count is, but this is utter BULLcrap. HA, HAHA.

Here's my take on trading bots:
So what. People complain about it and call it phony and scams and market manipulation. I completely disagree. Trade equity on wall street and you're facing against trading bots created by some of the smartest people in the world. They make split decisions in .05 seconds after analyzing articles that were just released. I literally do not give a damn about trading bots. They don't have the intuition and behavioral sciences that we as humans have developed. Yes, it takes a lot of time and practice to develop, but please understand that you can out play these things. It makes me sad when I see people get discouraged by trading against computers, and they no longer desire to trade anymore. Never stop analyzing!! Always be on guard, and don't be afraid to change your mind in an instant! Living in your own bias will only hurt you. If you see a critical piece of information fold before your else, go with it! If you believe market manipulators are evil, then please be evil with them. Because that is the only way you'll win. I sincerely hope I, myself am not evil nor greedy hahaha, but man... trading can be immoral as hell sometimes. I hope to eventually open up some donation funds in the future. I'm trying to be a, how-do-you-say... "Black Robinhood."

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I wanted to keep our minds open to this possibility. As an alternate count, a break below $6445 would invalidate this. However, as of now, this is very possible. So after this upcoming drop, it would be a good idea to open a break-even (or profitable) stop loss that would make a turn in the markets something to not worry about.

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We only hit 3 waves down. I expect the count shown above to play out. It seems that we will get a 3-3-5 Flat correction for this be wave. OR the B wave is done now. We will not go past the white resistance line. I expect us to continue towards it. Probably around the $7200-$7300 target that was previously mentioned. This is bad news for the Bulls. $5k is now my main target. And the scenario on the right is now looking likely to play out.

Elijah_Trading

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Elijah_Trading

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