Updated

Does Bitcoin's Run Hold Up to 11k?

Alright, I'm gonna keep a long story short:

This could be a possible impulse wave count.

BUT it could fail to complete a WXYXZ patten of this overall correction.

If you look at any time frame over 1 hour, they are alllll overbought like crazy, and a dip could cause downward momentum to those support zones. So i have a bull scenario, bear scenario, and base scenario.

Base: I think we run up to $10400 before we fall to our wave 4 decent. Which would be right at $9100-$9400 area. SO, In my base case, I'm neutral, I think the bulls could get some extra percentage points on this short term run up (next couple hours), and I think the bears could have a very profitable short down to the .5 -.618 level.

AFTER that, is where it gets tricky...

Bulls: WAIT for confirmation and support.. Long til $10400. WAIT for retrace. POSSIBLE, long at $9100-9400 - Target $11k
IF we hold that critical support and do NOT drop below it, with bullish indication, then we could target $11k with that very nice risk to reward setup.

Bears: Short at $10,400 - Target $9400-9100
IF we break that critical support, bears could probably short it down to those support levels.

I have been saying for a very long time that these impulse waves are very funky, so its possible that they fail. Everything is super overbought and in contrast to the wave count, i think its possible we need a bigger retrace without holding the support. SO, my short-term (1-2 days) is bearish. My 1-3 week term bias is neutral-bullish with a LOT of caution lol. However, long-term (3 Month+), I'm still 93.76% bullish :D.

Remember, this is still what I think is wave 3. Meaning we could have another wave up to as high as or higher.

I will quickly update with a short-term wave count on where we could peak and why I think why both bulls and bears could take major advantage.

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Here is short term play for $10,400. Extreme caution here. Will be watching closely, but I believe we have another wave. For those who followed my previous post, I no longer believe that this is an expanded ABC correction. There was an alternate count that fits this as a ending 5th wave diagonal. Good luck!

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Fell from support! Likely we fall from here!

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Reached channel support, will see what happens here. Possible these are impulse waves

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Guys, we are channeling and it seems like this upside down head and shoulders pattern is forming. If we reach neckline area and retrace with a higher low, I will go long! Our target 3.1 is extended to $10500.

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Neckline broken. Uptrend confirmed. Expected a small retrace around neckline area.

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I just spotted this ascending wedge here! Be careful, volume has been low on this uptrend...

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BOOOOOOM! We have not hit a target yet, but i'm freaking glad I caught that. LOOK at what is going on!! This is a 5th wave ending diagonal! Here is the set up for our next long and short plays. Target is between $10300-$10400. Very confident that we fall from this. and hit our correction target.

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Bitcoin's correction may be done! Update coming soon.

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Long Story Short:
Bulls: We may target $10800-$11000 now.
Bears: The bigger short play may have to wait. Updates to come.

Long Story:

Just like that this market turns quickly! So let's see what happened here. Previously I had warned of an expanded flat correction occuring after that last 5 wave wave structure, and though I saw another 5 waves, it turns out that it was an ABC upwards corrective wave that caused an expanded flat correction. And hopefully you see what I'm talking about in the photo. Our wave 5 ended SHORTER than our B wave. And we never quite got that ending diagonal that I was expecting, we dropped from support before we could head up for another wave. This confirms the expanded flat correction. We know that because they happen in a 3-3-5 or even a 5-3-5 structure, and I count 5 waves down for this C wave we just bounced from.

We just bounced right off of this channel line, and its possible we are seeing impulse waves right now. Here is an example of how it would look like, and we can target $10800-$11000 ON CONFIRMATION. We will wait before going long here. We must WAIT before we enter, because very often, WXY corrections will occur solely just to cause the correction to last longer after large runs up. SO, in that case, we MUST hold the red line of critical support, or we fall lower. We will see how this plays out. But its possible we an upside down head and shoulders to allow a confirmation of this uptrend. I will wait for wave 1 to end before entering, if this is an impulse wave.

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Possible Wave Count. Daily MACD is still pushing up. Which means that we can still go up and this is actually a likely scenario. We have yet to hit the Daily 55 EMA. I see this as pretty likely, but we still need more confirmation.

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Only buying on confirmation here. If we break this critical support line then we are likely to head lower into that green box.

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Right now it's looking like a 3-3-3-3-3 ending corrective pattern in the form of a bullish pennant. I could be very wrong here, but it looks like we are to go up from here. But the safer play is to wait for a breakthrough of this triangle. The safest, is to still wait for a breakout of above $10200. This wave 4 has not retraced much, so its important to not lose our guard here. Hoping these updates are helpful (and probably not so much when I'm wrong) :D!

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Broke through the pennant.

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Uptrend still not confirm. WXY scenario is still in play.

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Hope you all are enjoying this uptrend to $11k! One more stop along the way.

5th wave overthrows are possible. Watch out for them!

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extended 5th on the way!

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We will hit 11k today!

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Neckline broken. Uptrend confirmed. Expect a test around the 11k area, with a retrace to the neckline. We should break through 11k today. Targets can get as high as $11.5k.

It's been a minute since I said something stupid on here. That in itself is just a ticking time bomb.

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Alright guys, taking a look at the bigger picture. We are reallllyyyy squeezing into an ascending wedge. PLEASE be careful at these levels. We are playing with fire. I no longer believe that we can get past the 11k mark. I see sell walls already.

I expect a pretty big drop here. But keep in mind, that if we break the critical support line, we could see sub $7k again. So be very very careful in your positions.

Bears, here is the Shorting scenario, I will surely be entering that one. On the Daily scale our and nearly every timeline under our stoch RSI is very oversold. Our Daily MACD is near leveling. And the only we we could go higher is if our 5th wave is extended and we don't drop far from this ascending wedge, but that is unlikely. Guys, we have to watch closely. Bitcoin has screwed me alot on a lot of my trades recently, it does some crazy things. So I myself need to do a better job of confirmation and keeping very close attention. I even panic sold today and took a nice $100 loss to start off the morning hahaha. I haven't panic sold in a long time, but I have to own up to that one. My hands were of the weak. Good luck guys!

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Here's a possible scenario guys, where we push to above 11k! Hope you all didn't get bear trapped there! :D

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We're gonna target $9600 for this next drop.

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Guys, this is a very advanced B correction. For a second, I even thought it was an uptrend accumulating. It was very difficult at first to see what was going on because we had a failed breakdown "x". So I wanted to show how we would count this (if this is correct). I think we are nearing the end of it and should see our next fall very very soon. Hopefully this helps and isn't too confusing. This last portion could also go differently. but I'm just assuming we stay on this small support line within the ascending wedge.

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Hahahahah sometimes guys you just overthink things. That WXY pattern was just an ABC 123 and I have no idea how i missed that. I guess I just didn't think wave 2 would drag out that long. Oh well. Well, I'm gonna move our target for the end of this correction up to around $9800. But that DOES NOT mean we are clear of a continuation of this correction!

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Holy crap guys, I've noticed that Bitcoin freaking loves head and shoulders plays. Check this out. We've already confirmed the first head and shoulder, which would then HAVE to confirm this one. $9500 is still in play here if we break this next neckline. This is a thing of beauty. I'm expecting an ABCDE formation, where would could possible hit the .618 retrace, but I'd expect to hit the .5 retrace at least. Hope this helps!

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Last alternate outcome. This would be the bull scenario. I don't see it as being likely, but it for-sure can occur. So please don't put all of your eggs on this trade unless you are up to actively manage it. It can go up if we never break this second neckline and fall short of our first target. Wave 5 is can very often be truncated, so keep this in mind. It can happen!

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Our last scenario came true guys! Here's my game plan for the next day or two.

When we reach 12k. Be very very careful, and my next update will show you all why.

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Hold tight. Something isn't right.

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Here it is.

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Seeing some crazy possibilities. Anything can happen here.

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Here is what's going on now, the most likely scenario to continue this bull run towards $12k.

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I'm seeing this formation playing out. I just shorted!

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Guys, Bitcoin has been one wild SOB. I'm formulating an analysis right now, but I am waiting on more confirmation before I release the TA as well as enter any positions. It has destroyed my ass on scalping positions this week, and I've lost a decent amount of money. BUT, I expect a very big retrace soon. So be very very careful on where your placements are in this market. It may not be good.

Trade closed: target reached

Just posting this cause I said 11k :D. Did not happen the way i expected it to. So here is an unenthusiastic "BOOM!!"

...boom

Elijah_Trading

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Elijah_Trading

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