Short

XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels.

I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling).

This stock price is a joke.

Good luck to all!

Note

Sorry for the chart, this is my first post here, should be more zoomed in and a bit more technical analysis, but if you look up XIU and zoom in to the top, you'll see a descending trend-line (above price levels) on a 5Min or 15Min of 1Hr chart, and they are, at this time, struggling to get above it with any conviction at all. I expect 1 or 2 more failures at this trend-line, and then a big drop, creating a new, steeper, longer term trend line, within the next week or two.

Note

My shorter-term price target is $34 CAD, medium-term is $32 CAD perhaps with a spike through to $31.20ish CAD, probably a bear flag there for a couple weeks, then long-term (hopefully by time my puts expire in February 2025) my target and hopeful exit price is $28.57 CAD to $27.50 CAD. This would be a loss of only 18% to 22%.

I then expect a bear market rally for a few weeks, perhaps back up to my mid-term lows if there is some kind of "good" news (basically rates actually going back to 0.25%, seems highly unlikely though that they try that again so soon after that inflationary storm we had). During this bear market rally, I plan to buy puts again, hopefully around $31 CAD - $32 CAD, 6 month time frame again, and I hope to ride those down to $24.50 CAD or so, a drop of still just 30% from current levels, and 23% from the bear market bounce to $31 CAD - $32 CAD.

That would be a WEAK bear market, too, I think in the next year we could easily see this market (and many others like SPY/QQQ) down 40% - 50%, so... We could be in for some FUN with XIU and Canada's / Trudeau's recession / possible depression (since we're clearly already in a recession, they just won't admit it again, because these traders and elites and banks and brokerages that run these markets are STUPID and will not panic until they officially announce a recession, some will even stay bullish throughout, because "lower rates" and "Quantitative Easing" (AKA money printing).

I already have my gold/silver stacks, can't put more money into those at the level they're at. Central banks and normal banks even are now buying gold again. I wonder why.... Because they know these currencies do not have long left in them, maybe they can survive one more average recession, but if it is a seriously bad one, or we get another one before 2030, everything except MAYBE the USD are toast. But hey, I will add to my stack, if this trade plays out the way I expect it to.

Note

Final little comment, $34.85 is a level to watch for where, if broken, we'll start to see that much "steeper" descending trend line form. Support at that level, but after that? A big gap and the $32.80 CAD to $32.40 CAD range.

Thank you for attending my TED Talk.

mraso30

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mraso30