Energy - which way are we headed?

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Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows.

The technicals above indicate gold is continuing higher. If we’re patient, this should lead to a very strong buying opportunity in energy.

snapshot

Oil recently tested and rejected the 200SMA. This makes it more likely that we see another test of the green AVWAP tied to the covid low than a retest of the red one from the March 2022 high.

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