Stocks - XLF Elliot Wave Forecast
Updated
Idea for XLF:
- For summer-EOY, will likely need to look at Finance sector as one of the leaders in indices.
Technicals:
- Price losing momentum (falling into lower channels), bounces appear corrective in nature.
- Distribution pattern formed.
- Ending diagonal broke down.
- Price very likely to sell-off to bottom of the megaphone pattern, 9M SMA, 20W SMA, 200D SMA.
- Usually the distributive sell-offs in indices form the W shaped harmonic structures, so a secondary sell-off is very likely.
- Then a corrective rally into mid July, before selling off in earnest into Q4.
Fundamentals:
- June 30, G-SIB banks begin stock buybacks, should save XLF.
- However, this is extremely bearish after an initial relief rally, see:
It remains to be seen if the buyback rally will fuel another bullish cycle, leading into earnings season, or will indeed be corrective in nature, so watching out for the nature of the bounce, should it come.
GLHF
- DPT
- For summer-EOY, will likely need to look at Finance sector as one of the leaders in indices.
Technicals:
- Price losing momentum (falling into lower channels), bounces appear corrective in nature.
- Distribution pattern formed.
- Ending diagonal broke down.
- Price very likely to sell-off to bottom of the megaphone pattern, 9M SMA, 20W SMA, 200D SMA.
- Usually the distributive sell-offs in indices form the W shaped harmonic structures, so a secondary sell-off is very likely.
- Then a corrective rally into mid July, before selling off in earnest into Q4.
Fundamentals:
- June 30, G-SIB banks begin stock buybacks, should save XLF.
- However, this is extremely bearish after an initial relief rally, see:
It remains to be seen if the buyback rally will fuel another bullish cycle, leading into earnings season, or will indeed be corrective in nature, so watching out for the nature of the bounce, should it come.
GLHF
- DPT
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