XLV / Healthcare: A Path into Support before Going Long
While the equity indices have been setting up bearishly especially on the longer-term charts, one bright spot is Healthcare and the SPDR ETF tracking this sector AMEX:XLV . Given the weakness in the indices, bullish positioning should be avoided unless (1) the position is short-term, tactical and position sized, or (2) the position is within a defensive sector that is outperforming in terms of relative strength and has strong trend structure.
Along with Utilities and Energy, Healthcare has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year. Over the past year, its performance is slightly above the mid-range of all sectors (see linked idea US Sector Performance using Equal-Weighted Sector ETFs). But YTD, its performance has been stronger, and it is maintaining a good uptrend structure.
Since its peak on April 8, 2022, XLV appears to be forming an A-B-C Elliott Wave correction. Using Fibonacci projections of the "A" wave, and projecting the length of that wave from the April 14 high (the end of the larger B wave), a target of 134.68 would mean larger wave A and larger wave C are roughly equal, a common proportionality in A-B-C corrective patterns.
RSI on the 78m, 130m, and 4 hour charts all point to further downside before any bounce may occur. The RSI line is trending well below its 13 EMA .
Wave C should unfold in 5 waves according to EW principles (because it moves in the direction of the corrective pattern of one larger degree, i.e., the larger ABC corrective pattern). Wave 1 of C should also contain 5 sub-waves. Without cluttering the chart with the smaller sub-waves of Wave C, my own count suggests wave 1 is complete and wave 2 is underway or complete. That leaves about 3 waves more downward in the coming days before a buying opportunity might present itself.
Along with Utilities and Energy, Healthcare has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year. Over the past year, its performance is slightly above the mid-range of all sectors (see linked idea US Sector Performance using Equal-Weighted Sector ETFs). But YTD, its performance has been stronger, and it is maintaining a good uptrend structure.
Since its peak on April 8, 2022, XLV appears to be forming an A-B-C Elliott Wave correction. Using Fibonacci projections of the "A" wave, and projecting the length of that wave from the April 14 high (the end of the larger B wave), a target of 134.68 would mean larger wave A and larger wave C are roughly equal, a common proportionality in A-B-C corrective patterns.
RSI on the 78m, 130m, and 4 hour charts all point to further downside before any bounce may occur. The RSI line is trending well below its 13 EMA .
Wave C should unfold in 5 waves according to EW principles (because it moves in the direction of the corrective pattern of one larger degree, i.e., the larger ABC corrective pattern). Wave 1 of C should also contain 5 sub-waves. Without cluttering the chart with the smaller sub-waves of Wave C, my own count suggests wave 1 is complete and wave 2 is underway or complete. That leaves about 3 waves more downward in the coming days before a buying opportunity might present itself.
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SquishTrade
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.