Updated

XRPUSD bearish count

This outlook has XRPUSD having completed 5 waves up, and price is starting a decline with a WXY lower.

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In the process of reworking this chart as the strength of the decline is making me view this pattern as an ABC or 1,2 and an unfolding wave 3 of a 5 wave impulse.

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This is the outlook adjusted for an ABC or unfolding impulse. Price appears to be correcting now so we will see if its a wave 4 correction which will break lower to complete the c wave or sell off lower to the wave 3 target around $2.24. If price pushes higher beyond the typical wave 4 target zone then I will assess relabelling the c wave or switch back to WXY. has the crypto market topped? or is this a correction before more upside? (added this in the comments section earlier by mistake meant to be a note)

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Daily view of the upmove from the july lows. I was mindful of the RSI Divergence on both the daily and weekly timeframes and so had been more cautious with my allocation and sold 75% at around $3.2, I did have a short running as shown on the previous outlook but in hindsight cut it way too early. the chart has now pulled back to the typical wave 2 or B fib retracement zone shown in red and has reversed sharply in what looks like a pretty impulsive move. i'll analyse the smaller timeframes and post soon, but I will be watching for a reasonable correction on the 4H or 1H timeframes before reallocating for the longer term. to the right hand side of the chart shows two ways this could play out next, we wither get an impulse which will take XRP on a path to new highs, or a 3 wave correction which could complete the 2nd larger wave of a 3 wave correction and wave 2 or B extends further. i think $3-3.2 is an important level to take out. RSI and Stochastic has reset nicely so room to move higher.

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Since the last outlook following the rally higher from the lows, XRP has pulled back in a what looks like a consolidation. Although the up move from the lows on the 1H timeframe doesn't look to be a clear impulse, Im staying open to both counts WXY and 12345. The blue indicator on the bottom of the chart is the correlation to BTCUSD, you'll see it is high, so im using BTCUSD as a rough guide as to what XRPUSD could do, correlations can break down! but until it does, I’ll reference it. The pull back on BTCUSD looks clearer in terms of a corrective structure whereas XRPUSD I can count a couple of different ways. Irrespective of the wave count im expecting this descending wedge pattern will break higher. Whether it will break higher in wave Y or 3 from here remains to be seen. BTCUSD looks like it may have a small move higher then lower before it breaks to the upside for a larger move. Im watching around $93K on BTCUSD as the turning point. A measured move target on the orange (w)(x)(y) on XRPUSD would take it to around $2.2 so I may scale in on XRP and BTCUSD soon for the next leg higher. If wave y plays out then the red zone I mentioned at $3-3.2 may come in to play, whereas wave 3 should blow past it (unless another alternative plays out which would be a leading diagonal patter in wave 1). Regarding indicators, the Stoch has moved lower on the Daily, 4H and 1H, with bullish RSI divergence on the 1H.

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I was already long but by a reduced amount compared to my previous allocation, just 25%, but after todays buys I am back up towards my historic allocation. Buys levels are shown on the chart. I’m looking for a continuation from these levels as mentioned above in Y or wave 3, if price moves higher in a traditional impulsive wave 3, then this move should develop strongly. I will assess the price action around the red and green target zones and will again reduce allocation if I feel XRPUSD will have a down move to potentially break the 1.76 level at least, assuming it makes an ABC or WXY in red. I also scaled back in to BTCUSD today and increased by holding in HBAR. I think BTCUSD could push $2K lower towards $94-93K but im in at these levels.

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Price action looks corrective following the breakout, still long but reduced positions again to around 25% of max holding. In light of my recent post regarding NAS100USD and BTCUSD also going back to being a little more defensive until I see how the wider markets open and trade, reduced BTCUSD and HBAR aswell.

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Looks like we could have seen the (b) or (ii) wave completed and we could see a continuation higher next in (c) or (iii), will look for a dip lower and possibly increase holdings again. Similar pattern on BTCUSD.

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scaled back in on XRPUSD, BTCUSD and HBAR over yesterday and today, will work on and update later.

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As detailed in the post above, I added back in to XRPUSD over yesterday and today. uncertain yet whether this will be a short-lived position. since pushing higher price has hit the measured move target box and pulled back. Question is, is this a minor pull back before a continuation higher potentially in wave iii (if so I would like to see a push beyond $2.77), or has the move higher completed for now as the orange (x) wave. I currently have a sell order at $2.48, which if hit will reduce my holding again. If the chart is heading lower for a (y) wave then we could head to around $2.1 as a measured move target of (w) or $2 at the 786 retracement of green w or i. As a note, the white w wave does look impulsive, so could be an a wave, if so then this current move higher I have labelled as y could evolve in to a c wave and push higher in 5 waves, but it would still lead to a final move lower to complete (y).

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Since the last update price broke higher in what looks like an unfolding wave iii or c wave. Current price action is at an interesting point where im monitoring it closely as there a few alternatives to consider.

Staying slightly bullish for a minute I am look for a move higher in the last wave v of the white degree which could take price typically up to $2.9 where there is a collection of fib targets. I have an invalidation level at $2.71 which if taken out could mean a few things, wave iv in white hasn’t completed and could drop to make the typical target in white at the 38.2 fib retracement at $2.67 or the current wave iii high is in fact a completed wave v, and in turn completes wave (iii) or (c) and the higher degree y.

Green y being completed already, opens up the more near-term bearish scenarios, and it means price will head lower from here, to what level again depends on different scenarios which ill cover if it starts playing out.
The 1h and 4h stoch and RSI indicators have space to move higher, so add a little confidence to the more bullish of the two scenarios.

I haven’t discounted the more bullish I, ii, iii, iv, v count in green. For that we will need to get the alternate wave (iii) in place coloured in grey and start a consolidation in iv then break out in v to complete a lower degree wave I of green iii.

If you don’t understand Elliott wave then I can understand that being confusing, but the charts are an evolving puzzle with numerous outcomes.

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oops, with comments on the chart.

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My last post mentioned a few alternate scenarios, im starting to separate a few of these out so they are easier to follow and display. This is one scenario in mind, may get the others out tomorrow. If scenario 1 doesn't play out then I will be switching to a near term bearish outlook, hence the pending sell order in case we get an aggressive sell off.

Scenario 1
In this outlook the up move from the recent lows is counted as an abc correction. With the c wave needing the final wave higher to complete it, which could head up to the range between $2.88-2.97. After that move the chart would reverse, the most bearish case is it goes to $1.87 where we get a potential counter trend rally before another move lower. If XRPUSD heads towards the targets I have mentioned then I will likely reduce my holding to assess which outlook may play out next. I currently have a sell order around $2.55 in case any aggressive sell off occurs.

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Well, my sell order triggered around $2.55 yesterday, but currently we haven't see any drastic spill to some of the lower levels I was looking at. I'm back in today around the same level on the expectation that we would at least get a correction higher from the yesterday's low. Price action looks pretty strong currently. I'll hopefully get an update out tonight.

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XRPUSD has just hit a measured move target at $2.31, I've added a little here. Looking for this move to complete the flat pattern X wave. If this outlook is correct then XRPUSD would get a nice leg higher next, maybe up to around $3. will get a chart out soon.

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In this outlook I’m looking at the current move lower as the final stages of the green X wave. If the outlook plays out then ill expect a leg higher in green Y, potentially up to the red target zone before another sell off to make a new low.

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03/03/2025 XRPUSD Update

Since the last update the green x wave pushed lower into the lower green target zone. The 786 retracement and 161.8% fib extension mark the start of that zone. I did get out briefly, levels shown on the chart, but got back in on the potential recovery which played out very well, but short lived. The red target zone which I had highlighted previously starting at $3.05 pretty much marked yesterday’s high before a strong sell off. I did sell some yesterday on the bounce off of that target zone, but unfortunately didn’t sell enough, benefit of hindsight, maybe partly got carried away with the trump news. I got back in a little early as well on what I expected was a lower degree wave 4. I’m now expecting at least a corrective wave higher in wave (b) potentially to the orange zone, I may end up selling a larger portion at this point, need to see how the price action forms. The green wxy shows how this pattern could play out over the near term.

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08/03/2025 XRPUSD outlook

Since the last outlook XRP retraced higher into the orange zone, I did sell 75% of my holding on the way up and watched form the sidelines to see what sell off may occur. The sell off from the orange retracement zone looks to be slowing and has stalled at a collection of fib targets, so it’s possible the (b) wave could extend and we see a leg higher to complete the (b) wave, I will be assessing my position on this move higher and reducing my holding again if I think this outlook is playing out. Following the (b) wave high we would see a selloff in (c), that would complete the first wave of the green WXY.

An alternative I would keep an eye on is the (c) wave selloff reaching a lower structural target at $1.76, and that level marking the low. If so then the current wave degree we are in now would be the green one and not the orange, this sell off would potentially complete the higher degree red Y wave.

As both possibilities exist, I will be looking to increase my allocation following the (c) wave lower and assess from there.

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09/03/2025 XAGUSD update

The chart has pushed lower in to a flat correction retracement zone, so if this level holds then price could head higher to make either a running or expanded flat correction to complete (b).

If price sells off much further then may have to consider reverting back to the (b) wave having completed on the 06/03/25. However the current swing lower doesn’t look impulsive so I may substitute (a)(b)(c) for (w)(x)(y).

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11/03/2025 XRPUSD update

This is an update on the prior variation of wave count I mentioned in my last post and posted on the 03/03/25 update. In this outlook I am looking for the completion of the (c) wave, this could push a little lower towards the orange box between $1.93-1.83. On the completion of (c) I will look for a retracement in the green x wave. At present $2.5 will be a typical target area. On this retracement I will potentially be exiting a high percentage of my crypto holdings and possibly shorting, especially if this pull back coincides with a pullback in US indices which could precede another down move.

Following green x we should get green y, could this mark the completion of the (B) wave in yellow and the bottom in XRP?, possible but we will need to see what plays out.

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15/03/25 XRPUSD update

The green X wave target has been reached, I sold 80% of XRPUSD at $2.433, I'll work on getting an update out soon. wont rule out a small consolidation and a push up to $2.6, but assessing more from the sidelines at present given the wider market performance.

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19/03/2025 XRPUSD Update

This outlook looks for an eventual continuation lower once the x wave has completed. I exited 80% of my position as mentioned in my last post at $2.43 on the presumption that the x wave finished on the 15/03/25. Price hasn’t currently sold off sharply and to be fair looks like a potential bull flag for more upside which could mean the x wave is extended a little further (shown in grey).
Currently have a short trade running, this has been managed to break even and may well go for that unless the chart turns lower soon.

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