XRP Twist on Fibonacci
Updated
I want to start with how I created this chart. Not because this is a tutorial, but because it is important to understand what it represents and why it is just more than a bunch of random trend lines.
THE SET UP:
1. View chart in Log.
2. Set timeframe day.
3. Use Jan 4 2018 High of 3.317 and March 13 2020 low of 0.114 to draw a fib retracement, use 12/11/21 as the end date for the chart. Add 0.702 as a retracement level.
4. Locate the breakout.
5. Draw trend lines from breakout to each fib retracement for date of cycle end 12/11/21.
6. Lock all lines and lock fib chart.
7. View chart in shorter time frame, 5 minutes works. All times work, but the beauty of this chart is just how accurate it is on short time frames.
THE ANALYSIS:
First of all, I used 12/11/21 as an end date for a number of reasons that I will not get into on this post. I could go on for days with analysis about why - but that is not the point of this particular posting. Let's just leave it at the fact that I believe that we will see a completed 4.236 fibonacci extension on 12/11/21.
Second, viewing this chart we see two things. First, we see the breakout led to an impulsive leg up (I believe E-wave 1), which blew above the channels. You will see, though, that it frequently bounced along the top of the highest trend line, which further confirms that these lines hold significance. After the impulse leg up from the breakout, XRP descended into the aforementioned retracement channels, ultimately tagging the absolute bottom of the lowest channel, perfectly. It is so perfect, it's almost unrealistic. I believe this was E-wave 2.
Third, it is clear that XRP has begun it's second leg up (E-wave 3), and is doing so within the fibonacci channels! This means we will have two levels of resistance/support that we should be looking at in this leg up. First, we have the static levels created by the fibonacci retracement tool. Second, we have the fibonacci channels we created by drawing from the breakout to the fibonacci retracement levels on 12/11/21. It is abundantly clear - and it is more so on shorter time frames, that these channels are correct and relevant. This helps us understand movements within the fibonacci tool retracement levels - it explains why, in the middle of a level, xrp may face resistance, or find support.
Fourth, it also gives us more context about how XRP is doing in terms of its retracement. I believe that once the channels themselves are broken out of, we will see action similar to the breakout impulse up. What I'm saying is, the previous ATH fib level of 3.317 could be broken at a "lower" number. For example, on 10/1/21 the Fibonacci channel for the 1.0 retracement level (ATH) is ~$1.93. If on 10/1/21 we broke above $1.93, we could almost say it broke above it's ATH retracement level. I think these levels could almost be more critical to get through in terms of figuring out when moon time is, considering how XRP has behaved. It has traded, since the breakout into the retrace, with EXACT respect to those channels. They are the governing authority for the XRP chart at this moment.
Fifth, this confirmed my suspicions about 12/11/21 being "the day" that we complete the 4.236 extension. This chart helps us plan accordingly. It is possible we could re-visit the bottom channel again - for example, to use 10/1/21 again, that bottom amount would be $0.67. In the event this occurs, while everyone is losing their heads about XRP breaking below the .236 retracement level at $0.86, WE KNOW that the channel for 0.236 retracement has support at $0.67, and we will have our buy orders ready to back the truck up at $0.72-$0.70 range.
The idea behind this chart can be replicated - I have done it for BCHUSD and presently we are battling the 0.236 channel perfectly, just like XRP does here. Time will tell how accurate this was...but I believe it is correct...
I believe breakout will occur soon, and E-wave 3 will take us to $5.70. Then I see a retest of the previous ATH or close to it ($3.317) for wave 4, and then finally a euphoric wave 5 up to $13-$14.
Comments, Criticisms, or Suggestions are welcome.
THE SET UP:
1. View chart in Log.
2. Set timeframe day.
3. Use Jan 4 2018 High of 3.317 and March 13 2020 low of 0.114 to draw a fib retracement, use 12/11/21 as the end date for the chart. Add 0.702 as a retracement level.
4. Locate the breakout.
5. Draw trend lines from breakout to each fib retracement for date of cycle end 12/11/21.
6. Lock all lines and lock fib chart.
7. View chart in shorter time frame, 5 minutes works. All times work, but the beauty of this chart is just how accurate it is on short time frames.
THE ANALYSIS:
First of all, I used 12/11/21 as an end date for a number of reasons that I will not get into on this post. I could go on for days with analysis about why - but that is not the point of this particular posting. Let's just leave it at the fact that I believe that we will see a completed 4.236 fibonacci extension on 12/11/21.
Second, viewing this chart we see two things. First, we see the breakout led to an impulsive leg up (I believe E-wave 1), which blew above the channels. You will see, though, that it frequently bounced along the top of the highest trend line, which further confirms that these lines hold significance. After the impulse leg up from the breakout, XRP descended into the aforementioned retracement channels, ultimately tagging the absolute bottom of the lowest channel, perfectly. It is so perfect, it's almost unrealistic. I believe this was E-wave 2.
Third, it is clear that XRP has begun it's second leg up (E-wave 3), and is doing so within the fibonacci channels! This means we will have two levels of resistance/support that we should be looking at in this leg up. First, we have the static levels created by the fibonacci retracement tool. Second, we have the fibonacci channels we created by drawing from the breakout to the fibonacci retracement levels on 12/11/21. It is abundantly clear - and it is more so on shorter time frames, that these channels are correct and relevant. This helps us understand movements within the fibonacci tool retracement levels - it explains why, in the middle of a level, xrp may face resistance, or find support.
Fourth, it also gives us more context about how XRP is doing in terms of its retracement. I believe that once the channels themselves are broken out of, we will see action similar to the breakout impulse up. What I'm saying is, the previous ATH fib level of 3.317 could be broken at a "lower" number. For example, on 10/1/21 the Fibonacci channel for the 1.0 retracement level (ATH) is ~$1.93. If on 10/1/21 we broke above $1.93, we could almost say it broke above it's ATH retracement level. I think these levels could almost be more critical to get through in terms of figuring out when moon time is, considering how XRP has behaved. It has traded, since the breakout into the retrace, with EXACT respect to those channels. They are the governing authority for the XRP chart at this moment.
Fifth, this confirmed my suspicions about 12/11/21 being "the day" that we complete the 4.236 extension. This chart helps us plan accordingly. It is possible we could re-visit the bottom channel again - for example, to use 10/1/21 again, that bottom amount would be $0.67. In the event this occurs, while everyone is losing their heads about XRP breaking below the .236 retracement level at $0.86, WE KNOW that the channel for 0.236 retracement has support at $0.67, and we will have our buy orders ready to back the truck up at $0.72-$0.70 range.
The idea behind this chart can be replicated - I have done it for BCHUSD and presently we are battling the 0.236 channel perfectly, just like XRP does here. Time will tell how accurate this was...but I believe it is correct...
I believe breakout will occur soon, and E-wave 3 will take us to $5.70. Then I see a retest of the previous ATH or close to it ($3.317) for wave 4, and then finally a euphoric wave 5 up to $13-$14.
Comments, Criticisms, or Suggestions are welcome.
Comment
After posting, XRP tanked and descended into the channel between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements.For today (Sept 7, 2021), that range is about $1.00 to $1.15.
This chart predicts that XRP will struggle to hold above $1.15, will trend down to $1.00, where it will consolidate (not long) and then begin climbing again. Let's see what happens.
Comment
Note that a break above $1.16 (certainly could happen) puts the next resistance channel at $1.26
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