XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)
Updated
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
- Market is returning to a Bullish / Ranging state
- With the Evergrande dip it seems we now have room for another bullish retracement
- XRT had no major reaction to Evergrade dip and is rising with the market and is now about Evergrande.
- Pricing at 0.50 seems decent (11% from strike) -80, 60, strike 85
- XRT has the best contract price of all that I am keen on
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side - Previously XRT was making lower highs. This is somewhat bearish
- It feels like I have no other options
- The retracement could be a short lived reaction to the sudden dip. People reentering the market
- Delta or inflation concerns could put a damper on retail driving drops
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer - There is alot of optimising for the plan, this is a feeling I always feel before I enter a trade. The Opposite side has good simple arguments but feels dwarfed against the biased optimism
- I am rejecting the larger concerns of delta or inflation and placing alot on the reaction of Evergrade. Using it as a focal point on market sentiment
Look For New Information - Two days ago 21 Sep - Retail sales showed a rebound despite Delta. +0.7% probably fueled by back to school shopping. Online purchases were the key driver of the sales.
- Employment is down 0.2% and consumer prices increase by 0.3%
How Do I Feel Now - I think with the new information on the retail sales I feel more confident but still slightly concerned and aware about the previous lower highs
Sold 80 PUTS @ 0.47 Strike 85
% to Strike is 10.4% from entry
ATR percentile is low
Max Gain: est $3760
Total BP Block: 75K
Trade closed: target reached
Yatta!
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