Long

Seasonal Long for Dow Jones and S&P 500 $SPY $DJI $XLF

Updated

We are approaching the average seasonal low bottom for May. I went into detail of my previous short from the FOMC APR 29 date. That short was 90% closed at the lows today as we struck the AB=CD targets for Russell 2000 and Dow Jones futures .

Note

Note

On average bottoms near May 22 (for the year) in election years on May 22. This indicator (Seasonality Trader) shows the last 8 election year average performance. We may go down further, we may not. I prepped longs at the lows today in anticipation of a rapid turnaround on the 21 day donchian channel an the AB=CD level shown above.

Trade active

22900 average entry today, will continue to add as I see pullbacks and strength. I am carrying some RTY russell short still from the previous trade as a hedge.

Note

My initial target will be when SPX futures hit the 200 DMA, so around 2998 currently.

Note

We are hitting a Renko Dynamic Index/Zone overbought area here so it will likely require some kind of retracement before moving higher.

You can find this indicator named "Renko Dynamic Index Zone" on my scripts page. It is very popular and powerful on Futures and Forex.

Note

DJI futures also backtested this potential neckline here and stopped. I suspect a retracement all night is in order.

Note

Russell 2000 futures fell into a "net of gap fills" today at the bottom which triggered a heavy reversal there as well.

Note

Live Stream update MAY 14

youtube.com/watch?v=91oMZ0F_0ac&lc=Ugwp1IrH5DXTmqwo3UF4AaABAg

Note

First resistance here on YM, RTY, ES. We may need a break. This really from the Sunday open was https://crazy.https://www.tradingview.com/x/qxN6PaBi/

Note

SPX futures need a retracement here. The last 3 H1 candles seem to be a capitulation event. This 2940 APR 29 gap fill should provide resistance. I expect a retracement to Weekly CAM R3 there back near 2900, then rise again to the 200 DMA near 3000.

Note

NAS100 Futures are getting extremely close to filling the top FEB 21 gap.

Note

Russell did the full expectation of the move to 1400. We are at some major resistance points here on the 55 day Donchian close, and Month Camarilla R3.

Trade closed: target reached

SPX futures got the 200 Day Moving Average as expected, while striking the 55 day highest close. If we follow through with seasonality then we will go higher until the June FOMC. I do not know if seasonality will reign true again this year, usually with these conditions I would start building shorts.

It is unclear to me at these levels if we do indeed keep grinding higher, there are many forces and biases at work here.

mortdiggiddy

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