This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means:
I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer.
According to seasonality, the low should occur around September.
Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns.
IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high.
IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top.
I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
Note
"The inability of Ukraine to export from its Black Sea ports has sharply reduced grain shipments from one of the breadbaskets of the world. This has added upward pressure on international food prices and sparked global food security concerns. While some grain has moved out of the country on alternative routes, export volumes are less than half of their normal levels, and the costs of shipping has increased significantly. If grains continue to be stuck in Ukraine, the country’s storage capacity will likely be exhausted with the harvest of the spring-planted crops this fall, constraining farmer income and their capacity to plant next season.
This webinar will discuss recent efforts to alleviate Ukraine’s storage and transportation problems caused by the war. It will also explore the challenges facing Ukrainian producers and the country’s grain sector, especially as regards the impact of reduced export capacity and higher transportation costs on farm incomes. Presenters will further explore efforts to shift grain trade and the impact of those shifts on broader regional and global markets."
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