Zilliqa / BitcoinShort
ZILBTC - $ZIL - don’t get suckered into this death trap
Updated
Hello traders,
ZIL has gotten all sorts of pumps lately, mainly due to being listed on multiple exchanges within the same week. It has basically gone parabolic.
Looking at the daily, you can see that the last time ZIL closed a candle below the 10 EMA was on April 10th. After that, it saw more gains than Arnold in his prime without a single candle closing under the 10 EMA in 33 days.
So the question here is, will this madness keep going or will ZIL defy all odds and keep pushing?
Looking at our waves in the 4hr chart, we see that our wave i was a leading diagonal with a short second wave retrace of roughly 0.382. So with a short wave ii, we also expected a short third wave iii, which we got, since it was only 1.618 of the first.
In cases where you get a short third wave, you know that there is a high likelihood that the fifth wave could be extended. So how you typically project your fifth wave is by combining the gains of the first and third to project either a 1.618 or 2.618 (rare) to get your fifth. In our case, it looks like the fifth wave spiked though the 1.618 expansion at 2350 then came right back and it has been trading below this level since then which means that spike might have been our top, the end of the fifth wave… And we know what happens after the fifth wave - what goes up, must come down.
Another reason why I’m bearish on ZIL is because my 4hr RSI trend has been broken. This trend was broken before on May 6th, but we came right back above it. However, this time we’ve tested this RSI trend twice after going under and got denied both times. My guess is that the RSI will likely continue its downward path, which means that our pricing will also continue a downward path.
With that said, where should we expect ZIL to correct to? Well, now that the whales have already dumped all their coins, I expect ZIL to slowly slide back down to a support near the .618 retracement shown here, or about 1200 satoshi. That is the most reasonable support where we should see ZIL bounce to start its third wave.
Lets let this develop and we’ll revisit this idea when we have more confirmation and a clearer picture of what the second wave looks like
If you have found this to be entertaining at the least or if you hated it, feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe!
Kinashi San
*For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
ZIL has gotten all sorts of pumps lately, mainly due to being listed on multiple exchanges within the same week. It has basically gone parabolic.
Looking at the daily, you can see that the last time ZIL closed a candle below the 10 EMA was on April 10th. After that, it saw more gains than Arnold in his prime without a single candle closing under the 10 EMA in 33 days.
So the question here is, will this madness keep going or will ZIL defy all odds and keep pushing?
Looking at our waves in the 4hr chart, we see that our wave i was a leading diagonal with a short second wave retrace of roughly 0.382. So with a short wave ii, we also expected a short third wave iii, which we got, since it was only 1.618 of the first.
In cases where you get a short third wave, you know that there is a high likelihood that the fifth wave could be extended. So how you typically project your fifth wave is by combining the gains of the first and third to project either a 1.618 or 2.618 (rare) to get your fifth. In our case, it looks like the fifth wave spiked though the 1.618 expansion at 2350 then came right back and it has been trading below this level since then which means that spike might have been our top, the end of the fifth wave… And we know what happens after the fifth wave - what goes up, must come down.
Another reason why I’m bearish on ZIL is because my 4hr RSI trend has been broken. This trend was broken before on May 6th, but we came right back above it. However, this time we’ve tested this RSI trend twice after going under and got denied both times. My guess is that the RSI will likely continue its downward path, which means that our pricing will also continue a downward path.
With that said, where should we expect ZIL to correct to? Well, now that the whales have already dumped all their coins, I expect ZIL to slowly slide back down to a support near the .618 retracement shown here, or about 1200 satoshi. That is the most reasonable support where we should see ZIL bounce to start its third wave.
Lets let this develop and we’ll revisit this idea when we have more confirmation and a clearer picture of what the second wave looks like
If you have found this to be entertaining at the least or if you hated it, feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe!
Kinashi San
*For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Note
Here is an alternate wave count for those who think 1250 might be too drastic. Here we see a correction target of roughly 1550
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