Soybeans Retreat
Fundamental Spotlight
Flash Sale Alert
Private exporters reported sales of 167,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
(More) Lower Yield Estimates
Commodity Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier released his yield estimate for the U.S. corn crop. He dropped his estimate 3 bushels per acre, to 170 bpa. As mentioned, several times over the last week+, we feel the market has digested the lower yields and believe the market is likely trading closer to a 170-172 yield, below the most recent USDA estimate of 175.4.
Taiwan Strait
U.S. military vessels and aircraft have returned to the Taiwan Strait as tensions escalate. It's being reported that Taiwan fired shots at a done belonging to mainland China. We don't believe that this conflict will go away anytime soon. If the tensions rise to the point of U.S. intervention, it would likely be extremely bearish for grain futures.
Outside Markets
Outside markets were sharply lower yesterday with indices down to their lowest level since the end of July. Crude oil futures were sharply lower yesterday, erasing all the gains and then some from the previous session. That weakness has spilled into today's session, with October futures currently trading down another 3% and below the psychologically significant $90 handle.
Soybeans
November soybean futures closed off the lows yesterday which would be constructive under most circumstances, however, it was not enough of a rally to get the market out above our pivot pocket, 1430-1440. Markets are back on the lower side this morning and are approaching the 50 and 200 day moving average again. A break and close below those could open the door for a drop into the mid 1370's.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish Neutral
Resistance: 1459 1/4-1467***, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾****
Pivot: 1430-1440
Support: 1400-1407****, 1376-1379**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Flash Sale Alert
Private exporters reported sales of 167,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
(More) Lower Yield Estimates
Commodity Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier released his yield estimate for the U.S. corn crop. He dropped his estimate 3 bushels per acre, to 170 bpa. As mentioned, several times over the last week+, we feel the market has digested the lower yields and believe the market is likely trading closer to a 170-172 yield, below the most recent USDA estimate of 175.4.
Taiwan Strait
U.S. military vessels and aircraft have returned to the Taiwan Strait as tensions escalate. It's being reported that Taiwan fired shots at a done belonging to mainland China. We don't believe that this conflict will go away anytime soon. If the tensions rise to the point of U.S. intervention, it would likely be extremely bearish for grain futures.
Outside Markets
Outside markets were sharply lower yesterday with indices down to their lowest level since the end of July. Crude oil futures were sharply lower yesterday, erasing all the gains and then some from the previous session. That weakness has spilled into today's session, with October futures currently trading down another 3% and below the psychologically significant $90 handle.
Soybeans
November soybean futures closed off the lows yesterday which would be constructive under most circumstances, however, it was not enough of a rally to get the market out above our pivot pocket, 1430-1440. Markets are back on the lower side this morning and are approaching the 50 and 200 day moving average again. A break and close below those could open the door for a drop into the mid 1370's.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish Neutral
Resistance: 1459 1/4-1467***, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾****
Pivot: 1430-1440
Support: 1400-1407****, 1376-1379**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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