Target Reached! AUDJPY ReviewPrice reversed nicely from the 96.84 level we forecasted and dropped all the way down to the support target.
How did we manage to forecast this setup? Join Desmond as he breaks down the move.
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Aud-jpy
How to Take Advantage of Both Market Directions?Today we will talk about a very common situation that occurs in the vast majority of traders (if not all), especially when we have just started to get into this bussiness.
There is a consistent struggle between convictions, ego, and market views or analysis. This generates that we try to see in our analysis what we want to happen, or what we need to happen, and ultimately this the only thing that generates are psychological issues on the trader.
The best way to remain calm and be able to trade in a cold and consistent way is to plan in advance all the situations that may occur in the scenario we are analyzing, and how we would act in front of them. In this way, we do not allow ambiguities and we will only take positions if what we are waiting for happens. And, covering both directions, we will not feel that we are missing something if the movement is the opposite of what we expect (as it would happen in case of analyzing only in one direction).
In this case we will analyze AUD/JPY to show you how we carry out this analysis:
🔸First, we are going to detail our vision of the daily graph that is the one shown in the publication.
🔸As we can see, the price is in a clear uptrend, and when faced with the Resistance zone it began to consolidate for several weeks.
🔸From there, we didn't see a clear direction. When we detect that there is no type of trend or clear behavior, we stay out of the market and wait for an opportunity to happen where we can establish a clear horizon.
🔸What we propose to trade this pair is that there is a brekaout. It can be in a bullish or bearish direction. In case of being bullish, it must be from the Resistance zone and in case it is bearish it must be from the trend line.
🔸We are going to decrease the timeframe to show exactly what we expect:
🔸In this image we see the 4H chart.
🔸Basically what we detail is that we expect a break and then a retest / corrective structure. This is because it is a security add-on to avoid potential fakeouts (the trade can fail anyway, of course).
🔸Once we see the retest, we will have a new swing or structure to be able to position our entry and stop loss safely, with a favorable risk-benefit ratio.
🔸The targets are: Resistance zone in case of bullish breakout, and Support zone in case of bullish breakout.
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FLAG pattern Definition:
A FLAG pattern is a continuation chart pattern, named due to its similarity to a flag on a flagpole.
A flag is a relatively rapid chart formation that appears as a small channel after a steep trend, which develops in the opposite direction.
After an uptrend, it has a downward slope. After a downtrend, it has an upward slope.
IMPULSE Definition:
A “flag” is composed of an explosive strong price move forming a nearly vertical line.
This is known as the "IMPULSE" or ”flagpole”.
The sharper the spike on the flagpole, the more powerful the bull flag can be.
Corrective Wave Definition:
After an uptrend, it has a downward slope. After a downtrend, it has an upward slope.
This downward or upward slop known as "Corrective Wave".
Flag patterns can be bullish or bearish:
A bullish flag is known as a Bull Flag.
A bearish flag is known as a Bear Flag.
How to Trade FLAG Patterns:
When the trend line resistance on the flag breaks, it triggers the next leg of the trend move, and the price proceeds ahead.
Breakouts happen in both directions but almost all flags are continuation patterns.
This means that Flags in an uptrend are expected to break out upward and Flags in a downtrend, are expected to break out downward.
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AUD/JPY Long TradeCaught a nice long trade today on AUD/JPY.
Price recently reverted to an area of the previous resistance around the 76.60 level.
Price showed confirmation of rejection at this level following closed bullish 4H candles. The MACD and RVGI also showed signs of a trend reversal by displaying signal crossovers. The RSI was also oversold.
Therefore, a long trade was entered on this pair today and some great profits were banked.
AUDJPY - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
Correlation Trading - How to Trade Forex With Little to No Risk!Tonight we did a live stream on YouTube offering an in-depth explanation of correlation trading. You can watch the stream back in its entirety here www.youtube.com
Below will be a written explanation of correlation trading utilizing the AUDJPY vs. NZDJPY as the example:
Correlation trading is an amazing way to add diversification to your trading portfolio and in your trade plan. You can continue your trading plan and strategy but take advantage of correlation trading opportunities as they arise to increase your ability to profit from the forex market. In correlation trading the objective is to find currency pairs that are highly correlated, meaning that when one pair moves in any given direction the other pair also moves in that same direction. A great example of this would be the AUDJPY vs. the NZDJPY. Over the past year the correlation between the two pairs has been very positive, 92% of the time over the past year the two pairs have been moving in sync with one another. This correlation can be confirmed by using the Oanda correlation chart:
Once you have confirmed that you are looking at two pairs that are highly correlated to one another, you will want to then look into the charts and compare the price action over the past year. TradingView makes this very convenient with the ability to overlay charts. When we overlay the NZDJPY chart on the AUDJPY chart (candlesticks=AUDJPY, bars=NZDJPY) we can clearly see the times of the year when the two pairs were moving very much in sync and the times where the correlation cracked a bit and the two pairs moved oddly in opposing directions.
It is during these times when the correlation cracks that provides us with the immensely profitable and essentially risk free trading opportunities. If you notice on the chart throughout the past year you will see highlighted in yellow boxes all of the times when the correlation has cracked and a gap has formed. We can look at these moments and estimate the average maximum gap in correlation and use this information to gauge when to take a correlation trade on this pair.
You will notice every time the correlation has cracked and a gap in price action has formed, price inevitably moved back in correlation narrowing and even closing the gap You will also notice if you look back at the widest portion of the gap from every time there was a crack in correlation that it has been roughly anywhere between 400-500 pips . If we look at the second to most recent gap in correlation that we have labeled on the chart you will notice that at its widest point the gap in price was roughly 600 pips; the high being at 85.500 and the low being at 80.700. If we were watching this occur as it was happening and we noticed the gap in correlation approaching 400 pips and then 500 pips and then 600 pips, forming the widest gap in correlation all year, we could then look to take a correlation trade between these pairs.
In this given example around 3/11/16 we would look to take equal positions of long NZDJPY and short AUDJPY banking on the fact that the gap in correlation should statistically, with 92% likelihood, narrow and potentially even close completely so that the two pairs are moving back in correlation with one another. You will see that if we did this we covered on 3/30/16 we would have netted ourselves a fruitful profit of 300 pips. Our short position in AUDJPY would have been down about 20 pips or so but our long in NZDJPY would have been up about 340 pips.
This profit came with little to no direction risk because as one position goes against you the other statistically should go in your favor and if you are not netting a profit at any given moment your loss should be simnifically reduced as compared to what it would be if you were only holding the losing position.