HOW TO BUY THE DIP- What is considered the bottom for a coin?
- How to identify the bottom?
- What technical analysis tools to use?
- What are the fundamental prerequisites for the bottom?
What is the bottom for a crypto asset?
The bottom is the lowest price level of a crypto asset, after which the price of this asset is expected to rise.
The bottom is not always an absolute measure for the entire history of the existence of an asset, but can be calculated for a certain period: a year, a quarter or a month.
How to identify the bottom
Each trader has his own set of tools to determine when to buy an asset.
Here are some of the most clearest signs to each of us:
There is a protracted flat with the upper border breakdowns
The movement occurs in a strong support zone and is accompanied by high volumes
The order book contains big bid checks
Good news on the market or the project
The price is lower than the sale price (ICO, IEO, IDO etc.)
The bottom we search for is not a new all-time bottom
Protracted flat with the upper border breakout
If you observe that for a long time: 2 weeks, 1 month, - the price is at the same level, while occasionally trying to “break out” up, that is, the resistance line is broken, then this is in 90% of cases - the impulse to the rapid growth of prices.
However, if the breakout is more often than just the support level, then get ready to test a new bottom.
Strong support zone and high side volumes
Determine that there is a strong support zone at this level, that is, it met more than 3 times on the chart for the period under study and is supported by good horizontal volumes (Volume indicator).
Display the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range) indicator on the same period on the screen and evaluate whether the maximum vertical volumes for the selected period are at this level.
Big average checks
If you observe volumes above average with a “small” candle body, then there are purchases at the same price for a large amount.
This may indicate "big checks" or high market density.
To confirm the existence of “big checks”, you can refer to the order book and make sure that there are real bid orders for large amounts.
Fundamental prerequisites
As an extra springboard from the bottom, news resources can:
Issue positive analytics from experts on this asset
Record the activity of major players - funds
Report new technologies that have been released or are about to be released by the project
Share the conditions for large investments in the project by large funds, etc.
Price analysis for IDO, ICO and Private Sale
If the project token or coin appeared on the market following one of the popular types of crowdfunding: ICO, IEO or IDO, the most popular one, then you need to compare the Public Sale price with the current price.
If the current price is below the Public Sale price of the IDO, then you can put this in another checkbox on your checklist as a sign of a potential bottom.
If the IDO price was lower, then this is not a bottom, there are still a large number of investors on the market who bought the coin at a lower price, which means they can sell it cheaper.
Our bottom is not a new all-time bottom
As we noted earlier, a support line is formed at the level of the potential bottom.
If the price has never dropped so low in the history of the asset, then we cannot build a support zone, which means that the price can go even lower and find many new bottoms.
Bottomfinder
Catching the BOTTOM for altcoins? NO!If you are trying to catch the bottom for a top movers from 2021 bull market and you´re dollar cost averaging all the way down, it may be not as good idea as it seems to be.
Catching the absolute bottom is very hard and not many persons can do it.
Most likely you will have to wait many months until you will be at the break even or you will make profit.
Altcoins after dropping 90 % from the all time high can still drop another 90 %!
In this analysis, we are going to have a look at BITCOIN CASH and NEO that were top movers in 2017 bull market and Solana which was a top gainer in 2021 bull market.
Bitcoin cash:
- If investors were trying to catch the bottom when BCH dropped 77 % from its ATH, they were down 92 % when BCH found its real bottom.
- It took 48 months until investors were at the break even
- The price never reached ATH from 2017 again.
As we can see, NEO which was another top mover in 2017 didn´t reach its previous ath in 2021 bull market:
More examples? XRP, XLM, DASH, IOTA
SOLANA (just an example. We have nothing against the project or its team):
Do you think that Solana will be different? Maybe? Ok. It did very well in 2021 and most likely, it won´t do super good in the next bull market in 2023 or 2024! Why? Because there will be many new coins with a new hype and without bag holders.
Conclusion:
- Dollar cost average into Bitcoin instead of your favourite altcoins.
If you want to DCA into altcoins, don´t throw all your money in as your favourite altcoins can drop always another 90 % and nobody knows how much they will recover!
- Waiting for new coins without bag holders may be not bad idea
- Bitcoins is a safe bet!
- Altcoins = high risk
Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section!
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades.
In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap.
When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue.
We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know.
We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader.
When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term.
In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting.
The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic.
OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety.
So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$
You can catch the falling knifeBots aren't the only ones who can buy in at the absolute bottom of a trend. If you look hard enough, you can find them too and set buy orders accordingly or mark those prices as possible future bottoms. Here is an example of that happening, it'll probably change the way you look at every trend and help you find key hidden levels in the future.
Liquidity Pool / Stop Loss Explanation POE SignalA group member had a question about why the stop loss was "so low" being 23% under the buy price. The reasoning is you need to avoid the liquidity zone, where price could easily be pushed.
The purpose of our stop is to exit the trade if its no longer valid (not get stopped out only to see a pump happen afterwards). This could be another accumulation cycle, so we want to ride out the potential for a dip.
As normal traders we normally dont have to deal with extremely large positions. But the whales/institutions who do have to think about liquidity very differently than you or I. Order flow intersections are what they look for. They have to go TO the liquidity - which is many times where people end up placing their stops. They cannot simply accumulate or distribute a large position whenever and wherever they wish. Rather, they must look to those levels where liquidity is aggregating, and stops are helping them in an indirect way.
Without a Support/Resistance Finder (SRF) to help you, you can also/alternately use a volume profile as shown. SRF auto plots the S/R lines for the current range (all the horizontal dashed red and green lines are done by SRF). You want to place your stop BELOW where the liquidity is likely located - and also where your trade idea is invalidated.
In the opposite sense there is a liquidity zone above as well. Many times you will see price probe the same levels over a few days. This is testing the resistance and seller appetite. You can see this here in the 210+ area as price has been probing the upper resistance.