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Trend Lines & Their Significance in Minervini's Trading StrategyIntroduction In the world of stock trading, trend lines are vital tools for investors and traders alike. Mark Minervini, an acclaimed swing trader, is known for his strategic use of trend lines in assessing the strength of stock movements. This article delves into Minervini's approach, highlighting how he utilizes trend lines to identify optimal trade entries and exits, and emphasizes the significance of upward trend consistency in his methods. Utilizing Trend Lines to Gauge Stock Movement Strength Minervini leverages trend lines to evaluate the momentum and strength of a stock's movement. By connecting the lows in an upward trend or the highs in a downward trend, he creates a visual representation of the stock’s trajectory. This technique allows him to discern the stock's current trend, be it bullish or bearish, and gauge its strength. A steeper trend line indicates a stronger movement, whereas a flatter line suggests a weaker trend. In Minervini’s strategy, the angle and longevity of these trend lines are critical factors in assessing a stock's potential for continued movement in its current direction. Identifying Trade Entries and Exits Trend lines are more than just indicators of stock movement; they are crucial for identifying potential trade entries and exits. Minervini uses two types of trend lines: support and resistance. A support line is drawn along the low points of a stock's price, indicating a level where the price tends to find support and bounce back upwards. Conversely, a resistance line connects the high points, highlighting a price level where the stock often faces selling pressure. For Minervini, a break above a resistance trend line signals a potential entry point, indicating that the stock might continue to climb. Similarly, a break below a support line might suggest an exit point or a short-selling opportunity, indicating that the stock could be entering a downtrend. These trend lines, therefore, play a pivotal role in his decision-making process, guiding him on when to enter or exit a trade. The Importance of Upward Trend Consistency In Minervini's method, consistency in an upward trend is a key factor. He looks for stocks that show a sustained upward trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which are typically indicative of strong buyer interest and positive momentum. This consistency not only suggests a robust bullish sentiment but also provides a measure of safety, as stocks in a consistent uptrend are less likely to experience sudden drops. Moreover, Minervini emphasizes the importance of volume in these trends. An upward trend accompanied by increasing volume can be a sign of strong investor confidence, adding further credence to the strength of the trend. Conversely, an upward trend with declining volume may signal a loss of momentum, prompting a more cautious approach. Conclusion Mark Minervini’s use of trend lines is a testament to their importance in stock trading. By carefully analyzing these lines for both support and resistance, and prioritizing stocks with a consistent upward trend, he is able to make informed decisions about trade entries and exits. For traders looking to enhance their strategies, incorporating Minervini's approach to trend lines can be a valuable addition to their trading toolkit, offering a clearer perspective on the strengths and potential directions of stock movements.
DJ:DJIEducation
by JS_TechTrading
The analysis of the behavior of major player Part 2Hey everyone. Today i want to proceed my sharing of my knowlege about the behavior of large players in the market, how to notice them and how to use it. In the last tutorial we had a discussion about points where the major players places them SL and that this points it is = the biggest sales or buys in the market according the directions. So today i want to show you this point on the chart in the major coin exactly. Point of stop losses of major players is circled on the chart. On this example we can see the major SL actuation like a BIG buy in the market! Have an awesome deals 🤝🔥
Education
by MiriamRapoport
2
📌Cryptocurency World , coin &Token Types: The Ultimate Guide❗❗It’s important not to confuse the terms “cryptocurrencies” , "Coins " and “tokens,” Different type of them ,as there are fundamental differences that distinguish them. Summary : To put simply ,The two most common blockchain-based digital assets are cryptocurrencies and tokens. The biggest differentiation between the two is that cryptocurrencies have their own blockchains, whereas crypto tokens are built on an existing blockchain. What Is a Digital Asset? Broadly speaking, a digital asset is a non-tangible asset that is created, traded, and stored in a digital format. In the context of blockchain, digital assets include cryptocurrency and crypto tokens. What is a cryptocurrency coin? Cryptocurrency coin, like Bitcoin, is essentially a digital form of money that is backed up by a native blockchain The functions of a coin are strictly monetary — you can use it as a mean of payment, store of value, or as a speculative asset to trade, and essentially that’s it. The features of a coin are also similar to fiat money — it is fungible, divisible, and the supply is limited. By definition, a cryptocurrency coin serves only as a digital form of money. The most distinctive feature of a coin is that it is native to the blockchain it’s made on and operates independently from any other platform. Okay, then what is “altcoin”? This is essentially any cryptocurrency coin that has its own blockchain but is not Bitcoin. Some altcoins are just forks to Bitcoin, meaning that they base on Bitcoin’s open-source protocol but still have their own blockchains, like Litecoin. Others, like Monero or Ethereum, are completely independent blockchains. What is a token? The token is a non-native blockchain asset and its value goes beyond only monetary functions. Tokens also require another platform to exist and operate. For example, ETH is a cryptocurrency that is native to the Ethereum blockchain, which makes it a coin. However, one of the primary features of the Ethereum network is the ability to create new tokens within the network. The cryptocurrencies that are created on this network will be called tokens. For example, USDT — the most popular stablecoin pegged to the value of $USD is a token, which operates on the Ethereum blockchain. A cryptographic token is a digital unit of value that lives on the blockchain. There are four main types: 1-Payment tokens 2-Utility tokens 3-Security tokens 4-Non-fungible tokens Fungibility : All crypto tokens break down into two broad categories — non-fungible and fungible, with the latter being the most common type. Fungibility is a feature of a token which essentially means that one token is indistinguishable from another. In simple words, a dollar is always a dollar, and Bitcoin is always Bitcoin. You can exchange the $10 bills with your friend and each of you will still have the same value in the wallet. but Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are a type of cryptographic token — a digital representation of value that lives on the blockchain. NFTs can represent the value of physical assets. A painting, for instance. But they can also represent the value of digital assets, such as a short story that is only available online. NFTs have three characteristics that set them apart from other types of token: 1. THEY’RE UNIQUE -2. THEY’RE VERIFIABLE- 3. THEY’RE TRADEABLE -Utility Tokens: Utility tokens are a popular type of fungible tokens that you can think of as the chips at the casino. In the same way that you need to buy chips to play blackjack or poker, you need utility tokens to power the operations on the protocol. The most famous utility token example is Ether which powers all the transactions and smart contracts on the Ethereum network. As we just said before, ETH can be used as a means of payment, however, its primary purpose is to be utilized in the blockchain. Social Tokens (fan tokens):Social tokens can be a very interesting type of crypto utility asset that recently gained a lot of popularity among the crypto space and also presented the concept of tokenization to the broader public. In simple words, social tokens are backed by the reputation of an individual, brand, sports club, or just any community -Security Tokens vs Equity Tokens In simple, security tokens are common stock on the blockchain. These tokens are similar to the company shares held by the investors and companies usually issue voting rights through a blockchain platform. The tokens are liquidated to create an Equity Tokens. In other words, these tokens contribute an investment contract, where the Investors typically purchase in anticipation of future profits in the form of dividends, equal sharing of revenue generated and the normal appreciation process. Security tokens bridge the gap between the traditional financial sector and the blockchain framework; it’s one of the reasons banks have initiated the integrated Blockchain frameworks in their system. Issuing security tokens allows investors to raise funds through a thoroughly regulated digital share of its equity, asset or part of the revenue. The key difference between Security Token and Equity Token is that in the security token, an asset like real estate, gold etc. are used as collateral. However, in the case of Equity tokens, the shares of the company are diluted into tokens. We can place coins and tokens in different categories as you can see in the chart above, and some of them are common to other categories. As digital currencies are emerging, various other categories may be added in the future. -Governance token Governance token is the type of crypto asset that grants its holders decision-making rights over the project’s protocol, its product, and its features .it represent voting power on a blockchain project. They represent the main utility token of DeFi protocols since they distribute powers and rights to users via tokens. Governance discussions on Yearn Finance. With these tokens, one can create and vote on governance proposals. - Also Metaverse tokens are a unit of virtual currency used to make digital transactions within the metaverse. Since metaverses are built on the blockchain, transactions on underlying networks are near-instant. Blockchains are designed to ensure trust and security, making the metaverse the perfect environment for an economy free of corruption and financial fraud. -DeFi tokens represent a diverse set of cryptocurrencies native to automated, decentralized platforms that operate using smart contracts. These provide users' access to a suite of financial applications and services built on the different blockchains.
Editors' picks
Education
by PRO_SMART_Trader
82
The Secrets to Forex & Seasons GreedingsThis section is on seasonality and follows the prior section on carry trading conditions. I strongly recommend reading the prior parts for full value. This is (pt. 5) in chronological order. And yes, this will be on the test. ----------------------- You probably have someone in the immediate or extended family that considers herself (let's be honest) an expert shopper. The coupons, the early trips, the economy size containers, the 2 for 1 dealerinos, etc. Gets the seasonal produce or vegetables because they're cheap. Skips Black Friday, shops Cyber Monday. Didn't run out of toilet paper during the pandemic, etc. Gets all the Christmas gifts shortly after Thanksgiving, or in early December. And this expert shopper will repeat many of these decisions each year around similar times or with similar products. Doesn't matter what holiday, culture, or country involved, the behavior is parallel. I'll cut the music and get to the important stuff: Shopping is where the average normie experiences the pricing influences of seasonality. Not everything is 'worth' the same price all year round, not everything can be produced on any given day of the year, and not everything is consumed on any given day of the year. There are private and public laws and behavioral standards tied in as well. Everyone knows this as they experience it in their general robotic lives. But retail traders tend to forget this when it comes to trading and investing. So what's the difference between seasonality and similar-sounding concepts like cyclical trading or using historical models? Part 1: Solar Calendars Seasonality is a kind of factor (like in factor investing), it's a more rigid concept derived from historical data. It tends to be cyclical, but the timing is not arbitrary, it's formatted into the gregorian calendar . This calendar is based on solar timings and their effects. Solar timings were once one of the great wisdoms coveted by our ancient ancestors, building incredible structures to predict these seasonal events. They didn't do this for fun. In our current era of surplus, we can tik tok our way to prosperity, but in earlier eras, maximizing food and shelter was a life or death strategy. The solar calendar predicts these events with relatively decent scientific accuracy. It offers certain outcomes. Think about trading and its challenges. Uncertainty is the norm, so anything certain is inherently valuable. Now, how does that fit into currency exchange? Businesses, major exchanges, and governments all rely on this calendar for their standard operating procedures and for risk management. What do those three things have in common? They involve people, and they involve lots and lots of money. They all share the same green destiny. Part 2: Are These Titles Useful? I said this a million different ways in the first 2 parts. Look, there are certain psychological biases that greedy people at the top share, due to their upbringing, income bracket, and nationality, among things. Those biases help make seasonality matter, largely due to vacation timing, consumption season, and tax events these wealthy people will into relevance out of thin air, like a magician. This is why seasonality can still generate an edge for you, the pitiful retail trader. Now, as mentioned in pt. 3, we are still focused on long-term trades, traders that hold for many days, weeks, or months. Does seasonality have big changes for intra-day traders (who play on nightmare difficulty)? I'm not going to write a book here and detail every answer, you need to do your own research. Or you can just wait for me to write the section on intra-day trading. Or you could spend your whole life serving coffee. Please remember to follow me so I don't have to see your awful latte art. Part 3: Dead Presidents Okay, here are some secrets from the money magicians: There are seasons for all securities. It's important to understand that seasons for stocks and commodities affect currencies. I had to check google to make sure this is up to date but it appears you still need cash to buy or own things. And we're in the cash game. Ever wonder why dead presidents or national heros are always on the faces of fiat currency? As described in the last part, they are country-level assets, created for tax and liquidity purposes. Those faces are reminders of your most sacred civic duty: paying taxes. Did you know that all people have to pay taxes? Including wealthy people? The most powerful person on earth (probably) pays taxes. And, based on nationality, have to pay taxes at the same time each year? That is a rare form of certainty related to markets. Part 4: The Spice Must Flow Tax season, especially the US tax season, is big because lots of cash (usually over 80%) flows through forex as USD. Most of the wealthiest people in the world hold a lot of USD. And a majority of them live in the US, as tax residents or as citizens. As a result, it has an effect on USD rates towards the end of the year, when investment portfolios are rebalanced to try and take advantage of the tax system with whatever strategy is legally available. Indeed, it can be complicated, and I recommend doing your own research, something you will have to be competent at if you want to make a living for decades into the future. The net assessment is that if you are trading towards the end of the year, you need to be mindful of how the US tax season will affect your potential positions, and fit that into your risk management evaluation. Variables like earnings seasons, and other business or industry dependent factors serve as strong influences. After all, they are the ones using most of the money... currency isn't just there to collect for rent and spend on groceries, it's to create and capture value, the mission of all corpos. The money must flow. JUST THE TIP: When looking at seasonality, or any other global macro like news or fundamentals, it's important to think in terms of DEMAND. Does xyz increase demand for a currency (relative to the pair)? The supply does matter, but where many retail traders (and especially cryptocoinies) tend to get pink in the face, is when they focus almost entirely on supply in the evaluation of a currency. Demand is principally important to currency, and is the primary reason why consensual pegging agreements and the gold standard failed last century. Instead of reading a book on it, just read this: the demand for the currency of a few key nations is consistently strong due to loosening international finance standards that allow the newly minted wealth of developing world investors to gravitate towards developed country assets to hedge against local economic turbulence. Oh yeah and the petrodollar. Part 5: Commodifying Seasons Looking at commodities as futures contracts, because they deserve special attention. Especially useful in recent months. A lot of bag holders suffered big time in the oil contract bogmarket. The Bogdanoff's made a call, and prices on a few different oil contracts fell below zero. The behavior is so significant it is having effects on USD and global economic sentiment. Thank god we smart kids trade forex right? No zeros in forex, just infinities. There are plenty of articles online explaining how that happened, but let me tie in FNDs and explain the intersect with currency. The First Notice Day on futures products usually represents the peak of a trend if a trend was recently present. For example, the trend would occur over the prior 2 weeks or more to the FND date. You would want to look for positive open interest changes to support that trend. The FND could represent a definitive exhaustion point and signal a reversal or retracement. For risk management, these can be useful to look at if you trade a safe haven currency against a commodity or emerging currency. That means JPY & CHF (and now USD & EUR) against AUD, CAD, and sometimes NZD. Overall, most non-safe havens will have commodity performance attached to their currency performance. A quantitative or qualitative (ya eyeball it) composite of the performance of these commodities can help identify your center of price gravity (and its shift, is it being pulled up or down). I will come back to commodity futures and how they affect commodity currencies in the next part, so don't panic. In sum, I suggest googling the first notice days for commodity contracts (and you should also make note of currency contracts as well), taking a look at their chart development, and being mindful of a likely reversal occurring on those dates. This is an excellent way of finding extremes on the related pairs and can serve as 'risk mindful' price levels for entering into a long term trade. For example, not to get too far ahead of my risk management articles here, but let me briefly spoil with a more intermediate level trade: Relevant commodity futures contracts are rising in confluence with seasonal data and your currency (AUD/JPY) is rising in tandem. Your center of price gravity is accurately reflected as the current price of AUD/JPY at market, and you bought at the start of the month based on prior research, so you are in profit. Shortly before FND, interest rates on AUD are cut and the AUD/JPY trend flatlines. However, at the FND, the contracts make an extreme bullish move, and price action on AUD/JPY jumps as well (but in a smaller %). You have found an extreme, and can now close your long position or open a reversal position and wait for PA to retrace. Now, I could write a Chinese novel on all the specific things that should also happen with that trade, but that example is a framework you should familiarize yourself with. Part 6: That Time of the Month Your eyes are probably glazing over at this point. That's alright, everyone has a limit to what they can read and learn. Just like everyone has a limit to their net worth. Wonder if there is a relationship between the two. Let me make this a little easier by explaining just how complicated seasonality can be. As mentioned earlier, seasonality tends to work simply because there is an underlying calendar structure within highly regulated wealthy markets. These structures are created by the rules and standard practices of individuals and institutions, and more. These are effectively factors (factor investing) that shape price mechanics. Money moves in and out based on these regulations or standards (controlled timing), IE: tax obligations (end of year), holiday spending (consumer nations benefit), commodity contracts (exchange rules), and vacation months (volatility dynamics), and more. Global weather patterns influence shipping and availability of ports, temperatures and Ninos influence the price of agribusiness commodities normally tied to season... But it doesn't have to be that complicated for you, my small headed friend. I wanted to highlight the harder route first if you so choose to follow it, but the easy route is also available. Most of the forex market is USD, the remaining minority is EUR and JPY, and the rest is just a twinkle in some greedy fatcats eye. Why not just look at the seasonal or monthly performance of those currencies? Review the conditions from the peak, instead of the ground floor? Part 7: Started at the Top Firstly, if you prefer averages, you can average past 3 years, past 5 years, past 25 years, etc. You can find these indicators on TV by searching 'seasonality.' You can find them as free or paid indicators on the mt4 marketplace. You can also find them in various forms on other sites, some of them premium. Now, it gets even easier. Some pairs tend to close higher on some months versus others, this can be a useful unit of analysis when you attempt to fit seasonality into any overall model. If a pair like the USDJPY has 65% of closing higher in October but a sub 35% of closing higher in August, then you can evaluate risk by aligning yourself with history. You will know based on the MoM shift of probabilities. If you don't know this, then you need to return to the zoo, they are probably looking for you. Likewise, anything between 45-55% is likely noise, and not subject to the psychological intersect present in seasonality that I find significant. Again, we're still operating under a long-term trade frame of reference; intra-day traders will have their own sections in the future. To stay on target, long term traders with limited time to do additional research will want to focus on monthly seasonality performance at minimum. You don't necessarily need to be going through futures contracts, seasonal consumer spending, tax season dynamics, or weather patterns for perfect market timing opportunities; but know that the institutions do, and they have the money, they make the markets, and they intimately follow (or create) business and client trends. As I explained in part 1, what they think is the only thing that matters, even if it seems overly complicated or stupidly simple. Spending a little less time with your gann wave analysis and more time mimicking their research efforts will improve your survivability and your probability of accurately finding that center of price gravity. What about carry conditions? So let's return to the carry condition question. How can you use seasonality to find the center of price gravity, the resilient value, for long term positions? Alone, it is not sufficient, but it necessary to consider, especially in months where seasonality dictates a 65% or higher chance of a positive or negative month. For instance, you decide to plan a 3-month trade on the USDJPY, from August through October. You will know based on seasonal monthly performance, that the center of price gravity is moving from a lower to a higher price point. UJ has a 32% of closing HIGHER than it opened in August, a coinflip 53% in September, and 68% of closing higher than it opened in October. This instructs your risk management approach. You take additional risk holding a 3 month short in that period. And adding carry conditions, you pay a daily fee to make that trade as well. Personally, I feel sick just thinking about that trade. I had coronavirus last month, but that trade is worse. Now, that doesn't give you much guidance on when to open your position, which further sections will help elucidate. If you got this far, congratulations. Your mom and I are very impressed. More on fundamentals, commodities, and global macro in general next time. If you're someone that obsesses over the medieval metals or boomer rocks, then you will really enjoy the next section. Still lost and confused? Don't worry, it's already priced in.
Education
by CountofCoins
1
The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
Credibility filter for cryptocurrencies (part 2)Dear friends, In my last article, I described quite a simple filter that will help even a beginner identify whether a certain altcoin is worth buying or not. I just want to say it is not a trading system and doesn’t provide any trade signals. This tool performs only a single, but very important, task: to identify among all that diversity of altcoins those, which attract a lot of buyers and are worth investing. As the crypto market will stop falling down sooner or later, and the first matter for any investor will be where to invest their capitals. In this article, I’m going to apply this filter in practice and find out which cryptocurrency asset we should pay our attention to. I’ll note, I developed this filter by myself, but I’m not ruling out that one of the numerous books on trading may describe something similar. So, I’d like to insert the disclaimer in the beginning that all the similarities with other authors’ tools in my previous and present posts are accidental. I started testing this filter not that long ago and have applied it only to cryptocurrencies. Use of this filter in other markets is an open question. But, taking into account the basic rules and concepts of the market, it is likely to be of use at least in the stock market. The only limitation, I should mention in the beginning, is that the filter is appropriate for only long timeframes, starting from one day. Application of the filter to shorter timeframes won’t provide a fair view, as the cryptocurrencies moves inside a day can differ a lot due to intraday speculations of big traders. So, let’s move on directly to the filter: Step 1. Identify the market benchmark (trading instrument in the form of a large company – the leader of a market or a stock index that approximately reflect the market general trend). To start using the filter, the first that you need is to identify the market benchmark; in the stock market it is, as a rule, a stock index. In the cryptocurrency market, the benchmarking indicator of the market general trend is Bitcoin. Step 2. Mark in the Benchmark 1D chart the last four price lows with different colors. Pay attention that the more recent is the level, the stronger it is, compared with the others. That is why, it is important to follow the lines’ order in the chart and their location relative to the ticker. Different colors will help you do it. Step 3. Study the ticker location relative to the levels. • Identify the ticker’s location relative to the last low (in our case, it is orange). • Identify the location of the orange level, compared to the previous low. • Identify the number of levels above the ticker and below it at the current moment. In the chart above, you see: 1. The ticker is higher than the last low (orange level). 2. Orange level is lower than the previous low (green line). 3. There is one level above the ticker/there are three levels below the ticker. Having found out these three items, we have made up so-called market profile that is of use by itself, as it helps us assess the general market situation. I’ll explain on the items: 1. Breaking through the closest support level is a crucial event, as at this level, there all stop orders of the short-term and middle-term traders, and so, their working out means that the market is rather weak. If this level is broken out in the uptrend, it is one of the strong trend reversals signals. 2. The location of the last local low relative to the previous shows the stage of the trend development. If the last low is lower than the previous one, it means that the bearish trend is extending and vice versa, if the last low is higher than the previous one, it suggests that there are buyers and either a consolidation, or a bullish trend develops. 3. Levels above the ticker are the resistance levels, and the levels below the ticker are the support levels. Therefore, the more levels are below the ticker and the fewer ones are above it, the more are the support levels, the more investors are confident and the more promising is the market. Step 4. Identify the lows for the studied trading instrument (make the instrument profile). I suggest EOSUSD pair as an example. We mark the lows according to same pattern as for the benchmark; the deviation mustn’t be more than 2-3 bars. If for the instrument you’re analyzing, the lows are where the benchmark’s highs are, there is a negative between the benchmark and this instrument, so, you can’t apply this filter to it In our case, everything is all right. Finally, we see the following situation: 1. The ticker is lower than its last low (orange level). 2. Orange level is higher than the previous low (green line). 3. There are two levels above the ticker/there are two levels below the ticker. Step 5. Compare the instrument profile with the market profile. Finally, there is the main step, the culmination, of our analysis. Let’s compare EOS performance with the benchmark, Bitcoin. It is quite easy. Remember, for Bitcoin, it is like this: 1. The ticker is higher than the last low (orange level). 2. Orange level is lower than the previous low (green line). 3. There is one level above the ticker/there are three levels below the ticker. and for EOS it is like this: 1. The ticker is lower than its last low (orange level). 2. Orange level is higher than the previous low (green line). 3. There are two levels above the ticker/there are two levels below the ticker. The conclusion is the following: 1. BTC: the ticker is higher than the last low / EOS: the ticker is lower than the last low. 2. BTC: orange level is below the precious low / EOS: orange level is above the precious low 3. BTC: There is one level above the ticker/there are three levels below the ticker / EOS: There are two levels above the ticker/there are two levels below the ticker. Therefore, EOS is behind Bitcoin in two points out of three, so we can conclude that EOS performs worse than the market, and is less promising than Bitcoin, in investment terms. With such comparative analysis, there can be situations when the analyzed instrument has the same number of advantages as the benchmark; if so, the last, third point is the most important to decide which asset is better. If the number of the suggested advantages for the analyzed asset and the benchmark is the same, such asset is considered to be investment-worth and interesting for investors. Such analysis, of course, can’t be limited by a single instrument. To understand how bad is the situation of a certain asset. You need to analyze at least three or four assets in the same market segment (it is more convenient to present it like a table). In the end, just in case, I’ll again note that this filter doesn’t provide any buy or sell signals for a certain asset. If EOS performs worse than the market, it doesn’t means that it won’t be able to surge in near future or even be ahead of the benchmark by its momentum. This filter is just a try to find out the fundamental situation for a certain instrument by means of technical analysis; it is more like a tool for long-term investing, rather than for short-term speculations. Good luck and good profits! Best regards, Mikhail @Hyipov PS. If you agree with the forecast write “+” in the comments, if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post with your friends. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :) Stay informed on the latest cryptocurrency news, follow my posts in the blog.
BITFINEX:EOSUSDEducation
by Hypov
Credibility filter for cryptocurrencies (part 1)I will find out how relevant and efficient the filter is and explain the main rules and regularities. Today, it is going to be a quite unusual post, as I’d like to suggest an analysis of not a single altcoin, but about 90 percent of cryptocurrencies, which are now present in the market. This idea was suggested by my yesterday’s comparative analysis of EOS and ETH (see here) and one of educational articles (see HLEMA strategy). It is based on superficial analysis of altcoins, compared with the cryptocurrency benchmark Bitcoin, and division the cryptocurrencies into two groups: investment-appealing coins and those that are not worth buying. This analysis is very easy to conduct and I think it to be the crucial moment, especially for beginners, as they will be able to avoid the mistakes that may result in huge losses in future. Well, let’s analyze altcoins in order to learn how to cut the risks of a wrong purchase/sale of a cryptocurrency asset. I’ll start with a tricky question. What do Monero and Litecoin have in common? I can say right away, there is no point in comparing the teams, block-sizes or the network congestion. Look at Litecoin price chart: Now – at Monero price chart: If you compare these two charts above, the similarity is clear. But the most important, we should pay attention to, is the local lows, to be more precise, they location relative to each other. You see, there four clear lows in the price charts of these two cryptocurrencies. The very first one is the local summer low (orange line), the next low is the April’s bottom (green line), the next is the price drop in February (blue line) and November 2017, when all cryptocurrencies were sleeping before the rally in spring (purple line). You can change the lines’ colours, it is only important that you see and understand the picture. So, as I’ve said, these two assets (Monero and Litecoin) have very similar price charts, but the main similarity, is the location of low in relation to each other. It is the order of lows in the chart that allows identifying investment prospects of an altcoin and including it a certain group of coins. We have a kind of credibility filter for cryptocurrencies that is based on two simple trading laws, which, I hope, nobody has doubts in. Law 1: a broken out support level always becomes the future resistance level; and the broken out resistance level will always be the support level in future. Law 2: the better an asset seems, compared with the market, the more buyers are interested in this instrument; and vice versa, the worse the asset looks, the fewer buyers are interested in this instrument. These two rules seem obvious. However, for those, who have just started trading cryptocurrency or any other financial instrument, I’ll give some explanation. In Litecoin 1D chart, there is a descending movement (bearish trend) for LTCUSD. As you see, Litecoin price broke through the summer support level and dropped below the orange line. From below, the price move is limited by the level that I’ve marked as the low of November, 2017 (purple line); it will be the support level for the price chart. Once the price approaches the level, it is likely to rebound and go up. When the price rolls back, the law 1 works and the broken out orange level will turn into the resistance and won’t let the ticker easily move on (see green arrows). The same will be if the ticker breaks through purple line, the support dated November. If so, the broken out level will create a strong barrier to the ticker when it tries to regain the positions and go back to the starting point. Therefore, taking this law into account, I understand that the most interesting is the asset, whose price chart has the most numerous support levels below and the least numerous resistances above. To study the second law in detail, you just need to understand a simple fundamental thing. The piece chart in the screen results from trading between buyers and sellers. Many beginners, as wells as not beginners, often confuse the action with the result and say that the chart directs buyers and sellers...which completely wrong. Here is BTCUSD one-day chart with its yearly history: The same BTCUSD one-day chart, zoomed in: If you mark the above levels in the BTCUSD price chart and analyze the ticker’s location, relative to the present key levels, you’ll see that the price hasn’t broken through the latest support level, emerged in June; moreover, the other support levels haven’t been broken through too. It is clear that BTCUSD has just penetrated the spring, green, level, but hasn’t went on lower. Now, look at LTCUSD one-day chart, zoomed in: If you compare the BTC USD situation with that of LTC USD, you’ll see that the Litecoin cryptocurrency is performing worse than the market. From the point of view of trading psychology, it means that buyers have little interest in Litecoin, and so, sellers, trying to sell the asset, according to the general market pressure, don’t find any demand for their Litecoins. It makes them reduce the sell prices (ask) until there is a buyer. As a result, there is the price drop in the chart. This buyer weakness may result from many reasons; I enumerate the most common one below: • No big traders for the asset (diversification of risks/portfolio, exiting the market, expecting a suitable price); • Manipulations by big traders in order to press the market as low as possible, following the general trend; • Fundamental and inside factors of the asset that make buyers cancel purchases/start selling. Of course, it is not the complete list, but in any case, this situation doesn’t suggest anything positive, and so, the asset is bears little interest for investment, and one should avoid buying it. That is all for today. Next time, I’ll go on describing the way to identify promising assets, in the investment terms. I’m going to mark the key levels for altcoins to Bitcoin and find out which one is really worth buying. I wish you good luck and good profits! PS. If you agree with the forecast write “+” in the comments, if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post with your friends. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :) Stay informed on the latest cryptocurrency news, follow my posts in the blog. Good luck and good profits! Best regards, Mikhail @Hyipov
Education
by Hypov