Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street).
Reality is catching up.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
COVID-19 ATTACK, Fake news and the DJI (Wall Street)I present Tradingview data on COVID-19 infection rates and death rates in the USA - and compare those with the DJI (Wall Street).
Contrary to what we've been told by our leaders and mainstream media, there is no plateauing of infections or deaths in the USA.
NOBODY can say that the virus has peaked. The virus is charging north on exponential curves. Most of it's attack was in April 2020.
This bug is just getting started.
The chart shows the FED's QE infinity approach and how it has been failing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
LEARNING HOW TO TRADE: E1 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE In this video I will be speaking on the very basics of learning how to trade the stock market. The concepts of support and resistance are undoubtedly two of the most highly discussed attributes of technical analysis. Part of analysing chart patterns, these terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as barriers, preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain direction.
I am currently learning how to trade and I have decided to start a video series to help me understand what I believe I understand by trying to teach it. I am also starting this series as a video record to look back on in the future.
Happy Trading
My top 10 most dangerous Infectious diseasesDisclaimer: There are many diseases, and this list is my personal opinion based on several factors mostly deadliness & contagiousness.
There are no infectious diseases as of now that are highly infectious and also highly deadly.
Simple logic: if there was then we would all be immune to it and therefore low death rate, OR we would not exist we'd have been wiped out long ago :)
Diseases we see as trivial now were probably THE VERY WORSE that wiped out huge numbers are could have ended the human race and deserve respect, but the survivors were immune to it and the rest disappeared of the gene pool, so now they are not very deadly.
Important: I am not a medical doctor, not an expert in diseases, I even dropped biology as soon as I had the option in my first year of high school.
Are Markets Really Crashing? (An S&P500 Study) #SnP500Traders, If you have been following the news items on mainstream media or social media, people all over the world seem to be discussing recent fall in indices indicating another market crash and a possible recession. In this study lets look at S&P500 index from almost purely technical point of view.
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Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is your opinion in this matter? Are you trading S&P500?
Have a great trading week!
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003).
In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS.
SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days.
8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves.
The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure.
Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China?
If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble!
Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.