Confirmation bias in trading, why 99% crowd drain deposits?A lot of material has been written on the topic of psychology in trading. Especially often you can stumble upon unpretentious articles on the Internet, where the author, like any self-respecting “psychoanalyst”, is trying to talk on the topic: “Why are deposits being drained”.
And everywhere, as if according to one learned pattern, they write about fear, about greed, about the fact that one should not sit out losses, one should allow profits to grow, one should put stop orders, observe risks, keep a diary, work according to the system and other banality, oh which everyone has heard.
Our idea is that in trading there can be only two options - either you know what you are doing and then just systematically work on your trading setups, or you don’t know and just play “guess the tune”. Unfortunately, most traders are bright representatives of the second category.
A typical beginner's decision-making scheme: open any instrument, choose a “convenient” timeframe, try to draw a line, throw in a couple of indicators, and then sit and carefully watch the price... Many people call this self-hypnosis “market analysis”. And then something happens - the price goes down sharply and we begin to "see" the entry point for the purchase - now the price will return, it always rolls back. Click on BUY, choose a fatter volume in order to earn more - the deal is open. We sit, tremble, wait for the price to rise and... oh my God, the market gives us 2 points of profit! We cut profit immediately. We repeat this operation N times, and when the market does not give immediate profit, we average it by the same volume.
The account sometimes goes into a small drawdown, but this is not terrible, in most cases the “system” works like a Swiss watch. Having calculated the profit, we already imagine ourselves as millionaires and market gurus. But suddenly the moment comes when the system gives a small failure - we see a drawdown of half an account, the price continues to fall down ... What to do? We go to analytical sites, feverishly read reviews, especially lingering on those that say that the market is oversold, somewhere near a strong level, we are waiting for a reversal. Having calmed down a bit, we look at the sentiment and see that 85% of traders are also buying ... phew, the majority cannot be wrong!
After reading the analytics, looking at the sentiment, we return to the chart. Looking at it from a different angle, we make an expert opinion - no, it definitely won’t go lower, now let’s turn around. We add to the rest of the margin and, with bated breath, look at the monitor. And then, unfortunately, the price stubbornly ignores analysts, the market goes further down, and our trades are closed by stop loss. There is no limit to disappointment, how is it, everyone predicted a reversal, and the chart is moving further along the trend!
This is the so-called confirmation bias. When we act not according to a pre-arranged plan, but for good luck, we are looking for confirmation of our innocence in every possible way and completely ignore the opposite information.
From this, the main conclusion is - if you are not sure, do not play! We need to be open to the perception of all the information available, and not just the one that “suits” us. Only a systematic approach can defeat cognitive distortions!
