How to trade EUR/USD on the Daily Timeframe [FULL EXPLANATION]Trading EUR/USD on the Daily Time Frame: Delete the noise, patience wins
Here I present a textbook trading set-up + a fancy little indicator known as the EAG Yume Wave.
First we need to set up our parameters, what is confirmation and what isn't?
Your analysis does not need to be over complicated, you want to be considering the key/strongest variables when you are creating your final equation. You can backtest multiple indicators, I usually play around with ichi, different MAs and a couple of momentum indicators and the RSI to see if I can make anything work.
Here are my personal EURO/USD Daily TF Trade Parameters and WHY I have chosen them~
185 EMA
This has acted as a really good measure of resistance all the way through EUR/USD's last few months. To find this I played about with the settings.
Fibonacci lines and extension
These allow me to see all the individual lines to trade from and where my points of confirmation will be when a fib line gets broke.
Trend lines and horizontal support & res
Important textbook trading skills that should line up with my other indicators and fiblines.
EAG YUME WAVE Indicator
Watching for the twist and then watching for if the Miaku can provide support on the downfall.
Volume + MA
Volume in traditional markets can help us confirm where potential bottoms are with good buy backs.
Do bear in mind there is the risk of a volume divergence hence why I am neither bullish nor bearish UNTIL we get some form of confirmation!
If you learnt something or just want a chat about how I trade add me on Discord: Xander#5055
A follow and a like would be greatly appreciated for my time :D
~Xander
EURGBP
5 Natural Reactions To Failure In Trading5 natural reactions to failure in trading
It could be very useful to understand your natural behavior when you are faced to failure in trading. All of us are facing losses, sometimes these losses can be huge when come a krach or a bad choices.
The situation in itself will not determine the reaction of the trader. It is his personality, his history facing which will determine it.
1. Anger
Being anger is a natural feeling. It is the direct consequence of a loss. But you are not anger about the loss itself but about the causes which led to this loss.
In fact, before taking this position, you knew that it was not a good idea or even a good timing maybe because:
- The lot size was too big
- There was a big data released 1 hour later
- You moved the stop loss
- You bought too high
- You sold too low
- ...
You knew it but you made it ! Why ? Not enough patience ? not enough discipline ? You need to analyse it and correct this behavior.
The anger must give you the opportunity to learn about the cause of it. Most of traders are not able to coldly analyse the causes, It not that easy. It's a fight against oneself.
Don't be wrong. Losing a trade in trading is inevitable. It is the way of losing that is avoidable. Risking all its capital on one trade and get angry against everybody around you while it is you who accumulated mistakes, is this really honest?
You are the only responsible for your loss and you must learn from it. You must learn to lose and you must learn to lose well.
2. Runnning out on his responsabilies
When you lose a trade, the good behavior is to analyse the reason of the fail. Why did this trade go wrong ?
Some of you may be very passive on a fail. Ok I lost this one but the next one will be in success, then the next one is a fail and the next one too and the next too etc etc.
Maybe your strategy is not good. You should question yourself after each losing trade.
3. Guilt feeling
This feeling is human and totally normal !
You blame yourself when you give in to your impulsiveness, when your reasoning is wrong or when your behavior has pushed you to failure.
You had the choice to act another way. You had the choice not taking this trade or managing it another way. You know it and it is a good thing.
Now assume it ! Yes you made a mistake but how will you act to change the behavior which led to all this ? This is the most important point.
Be responsible of your choices and be responsible of your acts but don't keep blame yourself constantly. Try to improve yourself everytime, everyday.
4. Sadness
Don't let sadness affect you ! Sadness is a sign of weakness. Weakness is the synonyme of KO. It is really dificult to get up back from this feeling. Sometime it lead to depression. This is the case when a trader loses everything after a krach or bad choices. Many of you could have experienced this already. If you are in this situation, ask for help.
Sometimes it could be an humiliating situation. Be strong !
You can ask for advice if necessary. It is important for you to get out of this situation.
5. Giving up
Trading is not that easy because psychology is an important part of sucess. Being a successful trader means that you handle 3 key elements :
- Strategy (You improve it everyday)
- Discipline (You apply a strict money management, you follow it no matter what happens)
- Psychology (You are psychologically strong, you handle your emotions)
Some people cannot assume all of this. If you tried but you failed, maybe it is not for you. Some people are not able to be good in trading. Accept it, give up and move on.
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All these natural reactions to failure can be overcome by taking a step back on the event. Put into perspective, bring nuance, change its point of view; the acceptance of failure requires a real effort whic is essential in trading
The Escalade Of Failure In TradingThe escalade of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money !
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game
Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself
Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler :
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot.
He has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account.
Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month.
It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade.
Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?!
Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23.
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking.
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21.
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050.
Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950.
The average price is now 1.2123.
Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride !
Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070.
The average price is now 1.2102.
Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high.
Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200.
Oh my GOSH !
Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!!
Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!!
Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150.
And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day.
Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050.
Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
EUR GBP: a short term upward movement yet possibleI believe that trading success relies heavily upon identifying consolidation zones. Consolidation zones provide us the right direction of the market. A consolidation happens when a market move sharply upside or downside. Later, a trader can use these consolidation zones to identify patterns, whether it be continuation or reversal.
It requires attention and care. Rather than turning out to be a factory of producing signals, it is better to sit down and look for a setup. Setups are important because we are planning a trade and execute them on time. If you fail to plan a setup, then you are planning to fail.
Another advantage of trade setup is that we know where to get out and the right time to go in. Know the market. Study the price movements and make your your trades.
My charts use price movements, patterns, structures and indicators such as moving averages and oscillators. Trading intelligence is combining multiple knowledge to produce a favourable trade setups and plans.
10 Great Trading Quotes
It's always refreshing to hear from some of the trading greats that have made a killing on the markets.
Here are ten quotes that'll make you think twice:
"Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established." - George Soros
Soros cemented his position as a trading legend when he banked billions by shorting the British pound ahead of Black Wednesday - the day that traders broke the pound. They didn't really break the pound, but they forced the British Government to pull it from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), which it had joined in an attempt to unify European economies.
Soros made a pretty penny from trading volatile markets, opting to use it as an indication of a the beginning of a new trend.
"Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead." - Paul Tudor Jones
Jones is a Tennessee-born hedge fund manager, investor and philanthropist who as of February 2017, was the 120th richest person on the Forbes 400. The market is a living, breathing thing. It is constantly changing and it is always right. Jones understood this, which is why he stressed the importance of being adaptable and capable of changing your trading style to suit market conditions.
As Darwin famously said, it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.
“You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” - Warren Buffet
A household name in the trading and investing sphere, Buffet has made more money than most of us put together.
You don't need to understand electricity to flick the light switch, and you don't need to understand the physics of a wave to be able to surf it.
“Superlative performance is really a confluence of dozens of small skills or activities, each one learned or stumbled upon, which have been carefully drilled into habit and then are fitted together in a synthesized whole. There is nothing extraordinary or superhuman in any one of those actions; only the fact that they are done consistently and correctly, and all together, produce excellence.” - Daniel F. Chambliss, Professor of Sociology
Here, Chambliss emphasizes the mundanity of excellence. Each factor that helps us make our trading decisions may seem underwhelming on its own, but bundle them all together and it produces some incredible results.
"I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain
Trust your analysis before you miss the move.
AHEAD OF FOMC TRADE + CURRENCY CORRELATION EXPLANATIONHi traders,
I recently checked my long trade at EUR/GBP and got an interesting idea. I wanted to share with you not only about the mechanics & reason behind my trade but also about the currency correlation between USD, EUR & GBP that can some-how works in my favor. (Assuming we see some "Weakness" in USD when Market reacted to the Fed statements).
The Trade : In this particular trade I'm using a very simple strategy that I developed called S M Fibs, which basically a strategy that is using Structure, MA, and Fibonacci as its combination of rules. I also required a supportive higher time-frame bias (uptrend on daily chart) in order to take this trade. Entry, SL and TP are as seen on the chart.
The Currency Correlation : We know guys that USD and EUR overall correlated negatively (similar with the USD and GBP) that means we can expect the price of EUR and GBP to rise if the price of USD is going lower. Now, keep in mind that the level of negative correlation between EUR and USD is higher than the one on GBP and USD, because of that statistically speaking we can expect the EUR to move higher than the GBP when USD move lower. That would be translated into EUR/GBP going up which means helping me to reach my target.
So, that's it for today guys. Hope this one's helpful as well as educational.
Regards
Fedro Christian